Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
49
Down 81%
2 arb excluded
$15.5K
-$427.21
Smart Money Signal
40 of 49 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$11.8 | 43% 312-418 (730) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$63.17 | 45% 599-736 (1335) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3641-3403 (7044) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 77.3¢ | $657.27 | $773.37 | +$116.1 | 48% 1102-1211 (2313) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52¢ | $548.95 | $504.51 | +$6.7 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 71.2¢ | $465.05 | $384.64 | -$80.41 | 59% 1093-745 (1838) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.2¢ | $273.73 | $384.64 | +$110.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.2¢ | $191.31 | — | -$191.31 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 79¢ | $433.51 | $393.35 | -$40.16 | 44% 782-987 (1769) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 84.3¢ | $369.73 | $382.24 | +$12.51 | 52% 5094-4784 (9878) |
BO bosona | Downavg 90.7¢ | $448.43 | $494.18 | +$45.75 | 51% 4792-4578 (9370) |
AL almach | Downavg 78.1¢ | $343.1 | $439.08 | +$95.98 | 52% 1551-1455 (3006) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 74.8¢ | $293.62 | $324.58 | +$30.96 | 55% 4512-3652 (8164) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $135.73 | $273 | +$137.27 | 51% 2012-1937 (3949) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 74.3¢ | $266.81 | $279.43 | +$23.79 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $278.49 | $247.57 | -$8.05 | 62% 4316-2591 (6907) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $223.54 | $242.07 | +$18.53 | 34% 756-1498 (2254) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 95¢ | $190 | $200 | +$10 | 70% 1728-737 (2465) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 79.5¢ | $191.27 | $187.25 | -$4.02 | 46% 831-977 (1808) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 95¢ | $140.12 | $144.6 | +$4.48 | 29% 529-1303 (1832) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 59.4¢ | $91.58 | $135.61 | +$44.03 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 88.7¢ | $131.78 | $135.86 | +$4.08 | 67% 3669-1840 (5509) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 93.9¢ | $116.14 | $115.06 | -$1.08 | 52% 938-859 (1797) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $107.2 | $111.67 | +$4.47 | 51% 827-795 (1622) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 82.7¢ | $107.51 | $130.02 | +$22.51 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 50.7¢ | $101.5 | — | -$101.5 | 50% 893-886 (1779) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $80 | $67.57 | -$12.43 | 52% 932-847 (1779) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.4¢ | $53 | $67.57 | +$14.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.1¢ | $27 | — | -$27 |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$11.8
Record
43%
312-418 (730)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$63.17
Record
45%
599-736 (1335)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3641-3403 (7044)
Invested
$657.27
Value
$773.37
PnL
+$116.1
Record
48%
1102-1211 (2313)
Invested
$548.95
Value
$504.51
PnL
+$6.7
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Invested
$465.05
Value
$384.64
PnL
-$80.41
Record
59%
1093-745 (1838)
Both legs:
Invested
$433.51
Value
$393.35
PnL
-$40.16
Record
44%
782-987 (1769)
Invested
$369.73
Value
$382.24
PnL
+$12.51
Record
52%
5094-4784 (9878)
Invested
$448.43
Value
$494.18
PnL
+$45.75
Record
51%
4792-4578 (9370)
Invested
$343.1
Value
$439.08
PnL
+$95.98
Record
52%
1551-1455 (3006)
Invested
$293.62
Value
$324.58
PnL
+$30.96
Record
55%
4512-3652 (8164)
Invested
$135.73
Value
$273
PnL
+$137.27
Record
51%
2012-1937 (3949)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$266.81
Value
$279.43
PnL
+$23.79
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$278.49
Value
$247.57
PnL
-$8.05
Record
62%
4316-2591 (6907)
Invested
$223.54
Value
$242.07
PnL
+$18.53
Record
34%
756-1498 (2254)
BoneOhioInvested
$190
Value
$200
PnL
+$10
Record
70%
1728-737 (2465)
Invested
$191.27
Value
$187.25
PnL
-$4.02
Record
46%
831-977 (1808)
NIULAI4Invested
$140.12
Value
$144.6
PnL
+$4.48
Record
29%
529-1303 (1832)
Invested
$91.58
Value
$135.61
PnL
+$44.03
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$131.78
Value
$135.86
PnL
+$4.08
Record
67%
3669-1840 (5509)
Invested
$116.14
Value
$115.06
PnL
-$1.08
Record
52%
938-859 (1797)
Invested
$107.2
Value
$111.67
PnL
+$4.47
Record
51%
827-795 (1622)
Invested
$107.51
Value
$130.02
PnL
+$22.51
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
Invested
$101.5
Value
—
PnL
-$101.5
Record
50%
893-886 (1779)
Invested
$80
Value
$67.57
PnL
-$12.43
Record
52%
932-847 (1779)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $773.37
ByteBadger92
Down — $504.51
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $393.35
blue.birds
Down — $382.24
bosona
Down — $494.18
almach
Down — $439.08