Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
51
Down 35%
5 arb excluded
$9.2K
$-10.2K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 51 top traders (35%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 43% 312-418 (730) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 599-736 (1335) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Upavg 46.6¢ | $915.09 | $2.0K | +$1.0K | 7% 36-459 (495) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$13.79 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 96¢ | $1.4K | $803.98 | -$637.88 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 54.3¢ | $572.41 | $490.1 | -$18.97 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 42.7¢ | $720.6 | $415.77 | -$304.83 | 59% 1093-745 (1838) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.9¢ | $265.64 | $415.77 | +$150.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.7¢ | $454.96 | — | -$454.96 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 76.8¢ | $603.35 | $440.64 | -$162.71 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
BO bosona | Upavg 98¢ | $1.4K | $404.6 | -$442.87 | 51% 4792-4578 (9370) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 69.8¢ | $393.31 | $394.09 | +$0.77 | 44% 782-987 (1769) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.8¢ | $275.15 | $394.09 | +$118.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.4¢ | $118.16 | — | -$118.16 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 96.9¢ | $560.56 | $327.63 | -$232.93 | 48% 1102-1211 (2313) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.2¢ | $288.23 | $305.89 | +$17.66 | 52% 5094-4784 (9878) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 42.7¢ | $106.67 | $250 | +$143.33 | 51% 1052-1004 (2056) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 84.6¢ | $361.99 | $222.87 | -$139.13 | 34% 756-1498 (2254) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 70.7¢ | $230.28 | $207.98 | -$22.3 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 97.2¢ | $272.18 | $204.77 | -$67.41 | 48% 775-834 (1609) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 62.3¢ | $457 | — | -$457 | 47% 1115-1269 (2384) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $243.16 | $146.84 | -$96.32 | 55% 4512-3652 (8164) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $74.12 | $146.84 | +$72.72 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.8¢ | $169.04 | — | -$169.04 | |
 mihaXd | Upavg 35.7¢ | $66.63 | $186.81 | +$120.19 | 54% 135-115 (250) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 64.3¢ | $128.23 | $153.63 | +$25.4 | 54% 4614-3987 (8601) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Downavg 58.5¢ | $146.24 | — | -$146.24 | 46% 753-873 (1626) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $125.92 | $123.38 | -$2.54 | 46% 831-977 (1808) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62¢ | $76.52 | $123.38 | +$46.86 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.4¢ | $49.4 | — | -$49.4 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 93¢ | $117.18 | $126 | +$8.82 | 51% 836-811 (1647) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 57.5¢ | $735.06 | — | -$735.06 | 52% 1551-1455 (3006) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 89.7¢ | $148.68 | $100 | -$48.68 | 53% 418-375 (793) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 89.7¢ | $89.69 | $100 | +$10.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $58.99 | — | -$58.99 |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
43%
312-418 (730)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
599-736 (1335)
Invested
$915.09
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
7%
36-459 (495)
Invested
$1,205.2
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$13.79
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Invested
$1,441.86
Value
$803.98
PnL
-$637.88
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
Invested
$572.41
Value
$490.1
PnL
-$18.97
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Invested
$720.6
Value
$415.77
PnL
-$304.83
Record
59%
1093-745 (1838)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$603.35
Value
$440.64
PnL
-$162.71
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$1,439.28
Value
$404.6
PnL
-$442.87
Record
51%
4792-4578 (9370)
Invested
$393.31
Value
$394.09
PnL
+$0.77
Record
44%
782-987 (1769)
Both legs:
Invested
$560.56
Value
$327.63
PnL
-$232.93
Record
48%
1102-1211 (2313)
Invested
$288.23
Value
$305.89
PnL
+$17.66
Record
52%
5094-4784 (9878)
Invested
$106.67
Value
$250
PnL
+$143.33
Record
51%
1052-1004 (2056)
Invested
$361.99
Value
$222.87
PnL
-$139.13
Record
34%
756-1498 (2254)
Invested
$230.28
Value
$207.98
PnL
-$22.3
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$272.18
Value
$204.77
PnL
-$67.41
Record
48%
775-834 (1609)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$457
Value
—
PnL
-$457
Record
47%
1115-1269 (2384)
Invested
$243.16
Value
$146.84
PnL
-$96.32
Record
55%
4512-3652 (8164)
Both legs:
mihaXdInvested
$66.63
Value
$186.81
PnL
+$120.19
Record
54%
135-115 (250)
FairValueMachineInvested
$128.23
Value
$153.63
PnL
+$25.4
Record
54%
4614-3987 (8601)
Invested
$146.24
Value
—
PnL
-$146.24
Record
46%
753-873 (1626)
Invested
$125.92
Value
$123.38
PnL
-$2.54
Record
46%
831-977 (1808)
Both legs:
Invested
$117.18
Value
$126
PnL
+$8.82
Record
51%
836-811 (1647)
Invested
$735.06
Value
—
PnL
-$735.06
Record
52%
1551-1455 (3006)
Invested
$148.68
Value
$100
PnL
-$48.68
Record
53%
418-375 (793)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Up — $2.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
mo-money
Up — $803.98
ByteBadger92
Up — $490.1
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $440.64
bosona
Up — $404.6
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded