Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Up 78%
2 arb excluded
$9.6K
$-9.1K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 50 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 43% 312-418 (730) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 599-736 (1335) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 67.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | -$379.99 | 59% 1093-745 (1838) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$12.64 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 80¢ | $887.47 | $790.17 | -$97.3 | 48% 1102-1211 (2313) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 67.4¢ | $672.25 | $562.64 | -$109.61 | 44% 782-987 (1769) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 45.4¢ | $498.4 | $1.1K | +$552.69 | 51% 2012-1937 (3949) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.1¢ | $580.03 | $489.63 | -$4.39 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
AL almach | Upavg 72.1¢ | $344.64 | $384.9 | +$40.26 | 52% 1551-1455 (3006) |
BO bosona | Upavg 88.3¢ | $494.45 | $373.86 | -$120.59 | 51% 4792-4578 (9370) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 79.6¢ | $483.16 | $353.43 | -$31.76 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.2¢ | $317.15 | $327.48 | +$10.33 | 55% 4512-3652 (8164) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 87¢ | $468.2 | $300 | -$168.19 | 47% 1115-1269 (2384) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 88.9¢ | $377.66 | $274.3 | -$103.36 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 76.5¢ | $277.25 | $244.37 | -$32.88 | 52% 5094-4784 (9878) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 69.2¢ | $238.77 | $239.04 | +$0.27 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 33.7¢ | $256.87 | — | -$256.87 | 46% 831-977 (1808) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $205.7 | $207.78 | +$2.08 | 99% 893-7 (900) |
PB PBot-5 | Upavg 75.2¢ | $134.85 | $144.85 | +$24.4 | 49% 1410-1488 (2898) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 66.2¢ | $112.03 | $141.06 | +$31.67 | 52% 932-847 (1779) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 77.4¢ | $128.39 | $142.6 | +$14.25 | 62% 4316-2591 (6907) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $95.53 | $141.34 | +$45.81 | 51% 829-806 (1635) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $160.89 | $118.83 | -$42.06 | 54% 4614-3987 (8601) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 80.1¢ | $95.15 | $118.83 | +$23.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.7¢ | $65.73 | — | -$65.73 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 92.3¢ | $258.9 | $106.36 | -$26.91 | 34% 756-1498 (2254) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 81.8¢ | $97.11 | $90 | -$5.15 | 42% 814-1147 (1961) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
43%
312-418 (730)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
599-736 (1335)
Invested
$1,484.87
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$379.99
Record
59%
1093-745 (1838)
Invested
$1,073.36
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$12.64
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Invested
$887.47
Value
$790.17
PnL
-$97.3
Record
48%
1102-1211 (2313)
Invested
$672.25
Value
$562.64
PnL
-$109.61
Record
44%
782-987 (1769)
Invested
$498.4
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$552.69
Record
51%
2012-1937 (3949)
Invested
$580.03
Value
$489.63
PnL
-$4.39
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Invested
$344.64
Value
$384.9
PnL
+$40.26
Record
52%
1551-1455 (3006)
Invested
$494.45
Value
$373.86
PnL
-$120.59
Record
51%
4792-4578 (9370)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$483.16
Value
$353.43
PnL
-$31.76
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$317.15
Value
$327.48
PnL
+$10.33
Record
55%
4512-3652 (8164)
machinelearnedInvested
$468.2
Value
$300
PnL
-$168.19
Record
47%
1115-1269 (2384)
Invested
$377.66
Value
$274.3
PnL
-$103.36
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
Invested
$277.25
Value
$244.37
PnL
-$32.88
Record
52%
5094-4784 (9878)
Invested
$238.77
Value
$239.04
PnL
+$0.27
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$256.87
Value
—
PnL
-$256.87
Record
46%
831-977 (1808)
Invested
$205.7
Value
$207.78
PnL
+$2.08
Record
99%
893-7 (900)
Invested
$134.85
Value
$144.85
PnL
+$24.4
Record
49%
1410-1488 (2898)
Invested
$112.03
Value
$141.06
PnL
+$31.67
Record
52%
932-847 (1779)
Invested
$128.39
Value
$142.6
PnL
+$14.25
Record
62%
4316-2591 (6907)
Invested
$95.53
Value
$141.34
PnL
+$45.81
Record
51%
829-806 (1635)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$160.89
Value
$118.83
PnL
-$42.06
Record
54%
4614-3987 (8601)
Both legs:
Invested
$258.9
Value
$106.36
PnL
-$26.91
Record
34%
756-1498 (2254)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$97.11
Value
$90
PnL
-$5.15
Record
42%
814-1147 (1961)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $790.17
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $562.64
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.1K
ByteBadger92
Up — $489.63
almach
Up — $384.9
bosona
Up — $373.86