Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
63
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$16.2K
$-16.3K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 63 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 454-372 (826) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.2K | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 70% 1721-726 (2447) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.9 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
AL almach | Downavg 94.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$200.09 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 88.5¢ | $921.07 | $957.56 | +$36.49 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 64.6¢ | $728.45 | $853.59 | +$125.13 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Downavg 80.3¢ | $541.52 | $674.69 | +$133.17 | 7% 36-459 (495) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 96.4¢ | $590.19 | $612 | +$21.81 | 43% 1879-2519 (4398) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $536.89 | $542.31 | +$5.42 | 99% 884-7 (891) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 98.5¢ | $686.96 | $505.21 | -$181.75 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.9¢ | $565.32 | $494.18 | +$5.88 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73.2¢ | $356.44 | $325.86 | -$30.58 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.2¢ | $320.71 | $318.95 | -$1.76 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 58.8¢ | $193.57 | $303.92 | +$110.35 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 99¢ | $275.46 | $262.6 | -$12.86 | 33% 1131-2266 (3397) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 52.9¢ | $173.02 | — | -$173.02 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 55.6¢ | $73.13 | $131.6 | +$58.47 | 52% 924-843 (1767) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 76.8¢ | $118.06 | $153.74 | +$35.68 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 64.1¢ | $106.08 | $123.69 | +$17.61 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 93.4¢ | $119.58 | $128 | +$8.42 | 52% 2844-2584 (5428) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 87.6¢ | $100.19 | $109.73 | +$9.54 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $132.91 | $101.92 | -$31 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
Invested
$8,541
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
70%
1721-726 (2447)
Invested
$1,277.1
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.9
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$1,475.93
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$200.09
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Invested
$921.07
Value
$957.56
PnL
+$36.49
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$728.45
Value
$853.59
PnL
+$125.13
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$541.52
Value
$674.69
PnL
+$133.17
Record
7%
36-459 (495)
Invested
$590.19
Value
$612
PnL
+$21.81
Record
43%
1879-2519 (4398)
Invested
$536.89
Value
$542.31
PnL
+$5.42
Record
99%
884-7 (891)
Invested
$686.96
Value
$505.21
PnL
-$181.75
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$565.32
Value
$494.18
PnL
+$5.88
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$356.44
Value
$325.86
PnL
-$30.58
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$320.71
Value
$318.95
PnL
-$1.76
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Invested
$193.57
Value
$303.92
PnL
+$110.35
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
pspspsps5Invested
$275.46
Value
$262.6
PnL
-$12.86
Record
33%
1131-2266 (3397)
Invested
$173.02
Value
—
PnL
-$173.02
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Invested
$73.13
Value
$131.6
PnL
+$58.47
Record
52%
924-843 (1767)
machinelearnedInvested
$118.06
Value
$153.74
PnL
+$35.68
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Invested
$106.08
Value
$123.69
PnL
+$17.61
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$119.58
Value
$128
PnL
+$8.42
Record
52%
2844-2584 (5428)
Invested
$100.19
Value
$109.73
PnL
+$9.54
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
Invested
$132.91
Value
$101.92
PnL
-$31
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
almach
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $957.56
Bonereaper
Down — $853.59
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Down — $674.69