Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Down 74%
2 arb excluded
$14.2K
$-15.5K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 59 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%39 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.3K | 55% 454-372 (826) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $7.8K | $7.8K | +$7.85 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 82.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$136.25 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69¢ | $520.26 | $554.81 | +$34.56 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 85¢ | $445.77 | $520.15 | +$74.38 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $536.86 | $505.09 | +$6.67 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87¢ | $394.42 | $428.46 | +$34.04 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 96.3¢ | $328.88 | $335.96 | +$7.08 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $216.63 | $297.6 | +$80.98 | 51% 833-804 (1637) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 86.5¢ | $245.93 | $228.36 | -$17.57 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.3¢ | $264.33 | $199.99 | +$32.66 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 80.5¢ | $319.09 | $179.9 | +$5.36 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 91.8¢ | $196.35 | $177.34 | -$19.01 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $132.32 | $134.27 | +$1.94 | 52% 928-854 (1782) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 88.7¢ | $95.88 | $107 | +$11.12 | 53% 413-370 (783) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $125.24 | $92.26 | -$32.97 | 33% 751-1492 (2243) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $91.67 | $92.99 | +$1.32 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $84.95 | $71.54 | -$13.41 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.4¢ | $62.54 | $71.54 | +$9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13.8¢ | $22.41 | — | -$22.41 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 64.3¢ | $67.5 | $105 | +$37.5 | 51% 820-791 (1611) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $84.09 | — | -$84.09 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $67.25 | $79.98 | +$13.62 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 74.3¢ | $62.95 | $75 | +$12.05 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $72.9 | $74.7 | +$1.8 | 48% 2338-2522 (4860) |
Invested
$8,739
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
Invested
$7,767.4
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$7.85
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$1,099.05
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$136.25
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$520.26
Value
$554.81
PnL
+$34.56
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Invested
$445.77
Value
$520.15
PnL
+$74.38
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$536.86
Value
$505.09
PnL
+$6.67
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$394.42
Value
$428.46
PnL
+$34.04
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
machinelearnedInvested
$328.88
Value
$335.96
PnL
+$7.08
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Invested
$216.63
Value
$297.6
PnL
+$80.98
Record
51%
833-804 (1637)
Invested
$245.93
Value
$228.36
PnL
-$17.57
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$264.33
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$32.66
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$319.09
Value
$179.9
PnL
+$5.36
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$196.35
Value
$177.34
PnL
-$19.01
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$132.32
Value
$134.27
PnL
+$1.94
Record
52%
928-854 (1782)
Invested
$95.88
Value
$107
PnL
+$11.12
Record
53%
413-370 (783)
Invested
$125.24
Value
$92.26
PnL
-$32.97
Record
33%
751-1492 (2243)
Invested
$91.67
Value
$92.99
PnL
+$1.32
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$84.95
Value
$71.54
PnL
-$13.41
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.5
Value
$105
PnL
+$37.5
Record
51%
820-791 (1611)
Invested
$84.09
Value
—
PnL
-$84.09
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Invested
$67.25
Value
$79.98
PnL
+$13.62
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
ohioism<$100Invested
$62.95
Value
$75
PnL
+$12.05
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$72.9
Value
$74.7
PnL
+$1.8
Record
48%
2338-2522 (4860)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $7.8K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $1.2K
stepahead
Down — $554.81
CrouchPredictions
Down — $520.15
ByteBadger92
Down — $505.09
mo-money
Down — $428.46
machinelearned
Down — $335.96