Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
47
Up 51%
12 arb excluded
$17.4K
$-10.6K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 47 top traders (51%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.3K | +$30.32 | 55% 454-372 (826) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Upavg 61¢ | $845.64 | $1.4K | +$541.45 | 7% 36-459 (495) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 53.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$102.88 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 44.2¢ | $698.3 | $873.33 | +$175.03 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 68.2¢ | $846.42 | $799.48 | -$46.94 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 40¢ | $401.41 | — | -$401.41 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 62.9¢ | $714.12 | $732.84 | +$18.72 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 40.9¢ | $473.29 | — | -$473.29 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 54.6¢ | $599.55 | $608.76 | +$9.2 | 33% 751-1492 (2243) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $575.38 | $493.4 | +$5.52 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $246.74 | $493.4 | +$251.66 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $247.19 | — | -$246.14 | |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 40¢ | $401.63 | — | -$401.63 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $351.26 | $215.29 | -$135.97 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42¢ | $239.43 | — | -$239.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $111.83 | $215.29 | +$103.45 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 47.3¢ | $389.42 | — | -$373.62 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.9¢ | $263.14 | $306.95 | +$43.82 | 51% 820-791 (1611) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.9¢ | $186.91 | $306.95 | +$120.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38¢ | $76.23 | — | -$76.23 | |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 47.3¢ | $177.1 | $261.32 | +$114.09 | 52% 924-843 (1767) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 61.4¢ | $205.28 | $182.6 | -$22.68 | 50% 802-796 (1598) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.4¢ | $111.81 | — | -$111.81 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.2¢ | $93.47 | $182.6 | +$89.13 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $170.95 | $162.38 | -$8.57 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.4¢ | $89.88 | $162.38 | +$72.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.6¢ | $81.07 | — | -$81.07 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $161.45 | $175.11 | +$13.66 | 46% 749-866 (1615) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $81.12 | — | -$81.12 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.9¢ | $80.32 | $175.11 | +$94.79 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $184.74 | $144.97 | -$39.77 | 53% 413-370 (783) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $82.05 | $144.97 | +$62.93 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.3¢ | $102.7 | — | -$102.7 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Downavg 59.6¢ | $138.26 | — | -$138.26 | 48% 769-829 (1598) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 92.4¢ | $193.97 | $148.73 | -$44.61 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 44.3¢ | $126.9 | — | -$124.69 | 54% 4606-3984 (8590) |
Invested
$8,719
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$30.32
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$845.64
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$541.45
Record
7%
36-459 (495)
Invested
$1,280.76
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$102.88
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
Invested
$698.3
Value
$873.33
PnL
+$175.03
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$846.42
Value
$799.48
PnL
-$46.94
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Invested
$401.41
Value
—
PnL
-$401.41
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$714.12
Value
$732.84
PnL
+$18.72
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Invested
$473.29
Value
—
PnL
-$473.29
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$599.55
Value
$608.76
PnL
+$9.2
Record
33%
751-1492 (2243)
Invested
$575.38
Value
$493.4
PnL
+$5.52
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Both legs:
Invested
$401.63
Value
—
PnL
-$401.63
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Invested
$351.26
Value
$215.29
PnL
-$135.97
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Both legs:
Invested
$389.42
Value
—
PnL
-$373.62
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
Invested
$263.14
Value
$306.95
PnL
+$43.82
Record
51%
820-791 (1611)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.1
Value
$261.32
PnL
+$114.09
Record
52%
924-843 (1767)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$205.28
Value
$182.6
PnL
-$22.68
Record
50%
802-796 (1598)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$170.95
Value
$162.38
PnL
-$8.57
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Both legs:
Invested
$161.45
Value
$175.11
PnL
+$13.66
Record
46%
749-866 (1615)
Both legs:
Invested
$184.74
Value
$144.97
PnL
-$39.77
Record
53%
413-370 (783)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.26
Value
—
PnL
-$138.26
Record
48%
769-829 (1598)
Invested
$193.97
Value
$148.73
PnL
-$44.61
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$126.9
Value
—
PnL
-$124.69
Record
54%
4606-3984 (8590)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Up — $1.4K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.3K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $873.33
stepahead
Up — $799.48
mo-money
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $732.84