Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
51
Up 41%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
$-16.4K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 51 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.5K | 55% 454-372 (826) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.2K | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 77.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$126.51 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 79¢ | $434.17 | $516.75 | +$84.08 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 68.7¢ | $490.15 | $494.85 | +$4.71 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $566.19 | $499.26 | -$0.12 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 82¢ | $381.8 | $431.73 | +$54.66 | 52% 924-843 (1767) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 76.5¢ | $281.74 | $368.14 | +$86.39 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 75¢ | $229.53 | $230.04 | +$0.51 | 53% 413-370 (783) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 50.7¢ | $202.18 | — | -$202.18 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75.4¢ | $185.85 | $201.99 | +$16.14 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 40.6¢ | $316.31 | — | -$311.59 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 72.1¢ | $164.5 | $167.1 | +$6.68 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 53.9¢ | $73.19 | $135.68 | +$62.49 | 58% 5095-3753 (8848) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $112.83 | $121.27 | +$8.45 | 46% 749-866 (1615) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.8¢ | $106.16 | $105 | -$1.16 | 52% 928-854 (1782) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 92.3¢ | $206.74 | $104.75 | -$0.31 | 33% 751-1492 (2243) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 6.8¢ | $56.58 | $38.44 | -$18.14 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 6.8¢ | $40.05 | — | -$40.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43¢ | $16.53 | $38.44 | +$21.91 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 60.7¢ | $97.33 | $84.87 | -$12.45 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $62.09 | $82.98 | +$20.89 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
AL Alpharo28<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $69.6 | $90 | +$20.4 | 56% 359-279 (638) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 70.1¢ | $60.76 | $69.2 | +$15.91 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $86.19 | $59.19 | -$27 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $33.8 | $52 | +$18.2 | 51% 1045-996 (2041) |
Invested
$8,770
Value
—
PnL
$-8.5K
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$1,267.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$126.51
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$434.17
Value
$516.75
PnL
+$84.08
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Invested
$490.15
Value
$494.85
PnL
+$4.71
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$566.19
Value
$499.26
PnL
-$0.12
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$381.8
Value
$431.73
PnL
+$54.66
Record
52%
924-843 (1767)
machinelearnedInvested
$281.74
Value
$368.14
PnL
+$86.39
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Invested
$229.53
Value
$230.04
PnL
+$0.51
Record
53%
413-370 (783)
Invested
$202.18
Value
—
PnL
-$202.18
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Invested
$185.85
Value
$201.99
PnL
+$16.14
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Invested
$316.31
Value
—
PnL
-$311.59
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$164.5
Value
$167.1
PnL
+$6.68
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
Invested
$73.19
Value
$135.68
PnL
+$62.49
Record
58%
5095-3753 (8848)
Invested
$112.83
Value
$121.27
PnL
+$8.45
Record
46%
749-866 (1615)
Invested
$106.16
Value
$105
PnL
-$1.16
Record
52%
928-854 (1782)
Invested
$206.74
Value
$104.75
PnL
-$0.31
Record
33%
751-1492 (2243)
Invested
$56.58
Value
$38.44
PnL
-$18.14
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$97.33
Value
$84.87
PnL
-$12.45
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$62.09
Value
$82.98
PnL
+$20.89
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
Invested
$69.6
Value
$90
PnL
+$20.4
Record
56%
359-279 (638)
Invested
$60.76
Value
$69.2
PnL
+$15.91
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
Invested
$86.19
Value
$59.19
PnL
-$27
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$33.8
Value
$52
PnL
+$18.2
Record
51%
1045-996 (2041)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $1.1K
blue.birds
Down — $516.75
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $494.85
ByteBadger92
Down — $499.26
wzbbb
Down — $431.73
machinelearned
Down — $368.14
gansinimen
Down — $230.04