Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 72%
$15.7K
$-8.7K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 51 top traders (73%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.3K | 55% 454-372 (826) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$13.35 | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$18.91 | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$1.07 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $673.84 | $683.43 | +$9.59 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 95.9¢ | $646.08 | $584.29 | -$61.79 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
AL almach | Downavg 99.3¢ | $587.24 | $566.56 | -$20.68 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $520.97 | $506.1 | -$4.41 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.1¢ | $450.25 | $451.08 | +$0.83 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 90.9¢ | $443.76 | $319.96 | -$123.8 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 95.1¢ | $305.46 | $251.98 | -$53.48 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 86.3¢ | $275.76 | $252.4 | -$23.36 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 63.2¢ | $216.39 | $224.56 | +$12.46 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
BO bosona | Downavg 97¢ | $197.41 | $196.07 | -$1.34 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 99.2¢ | $55.55 | $56 | +$0.45 | 52% 2844-2584 (5428) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Upavg 26.3¢ | $47.04 | — | -$47.04 | 51% 823-801 (1624) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $42.25 | $52.47 | +$10.22 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $54.29 | $50 | -$4.29 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $36.17 | $56.17 | +$20 | 33% 751-1492 (2243) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $30.29 | $46 | +$15.71 | 50% 802-796 (1598) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $44.1 | $35.43 | -$8.67 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $42.68 | $44 | +$1.32 | 39% 1577-2453 (4030) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $35.42 | — | -$35.42 | 48% 769-829 (1598) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $38.44 | $67.44 | +$29 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
Invested
$8,691
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$13.35
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$18.91
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$1,063.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.07
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
Invested
$673.84
Value
$683.43
PnL
+$9.59
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$646.08
Value
$584.29
PnL
-$61.79
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$587.24
Value
$566.56
PnL
-$20.68
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Invested
$520.97
Value
$506.1
PnL
-$4.41
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$450.25
Value
$451.08
PnL
+$0.83
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
machinelearnedInvested
$443.76
Value
$319.96
PnL
-$123.8
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$305.46
Value
$251.98
PnL
-$53.48
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$275.76
Value
$252.4
PnL
-$23.36
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Invested
$216.39
Value
$224.56
PnL
+$12.46
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$197.41
Value
$196.07
PnL
-$1.34
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$55.55
Value
$56
PnL
+$0.45
Record
52%
2844-2584 (5428)
Invested
$47.04
Value
—
PnL
-$47.04
Record
51%
823-801 (1624)
Invested
$42.25
Value
$52.47
PnL
+$10.22
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
Invested
$54.29
Value
$50
PnL
-$4.29
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
Invested
$36.17
Value
$56.17
PnL
+$20
Record
33%
751-1492 (2243)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$30.29
Value
$46
PnL
+$15.71
Record
50%
802-796 (1598)
Invested
$44.1
Value
$35.43
PnL
-$8.67
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$42.68
Value
$44
PnL
+$1.32
Record
39%
1577-2453 (4030)
Invested
$35.42
Value
—
PnL
-$35.42
Record
48%
769-829 (1598)
Invested
$38.44
Value
$67.44
PnL
+$29
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
0x50f7
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
Down — $950
hoodquant
Down — $683.43
CrouchPredictions
Down — $584.29
almach
Down — $566.56
ByteBadger92
Down — $506.1
mo-money
Down — $451.08