Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 77%
3 arb excluded
$15.2K
$-9.6K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 53 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.6K | 55% 454-372 (826) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | +$9.36 | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$57 | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.8¢ | $1.1K | $923.92 | -$135.67 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 78.5¢ | $573.45 | $532.46 | -$39.93 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $591.09 | $491.02 | -$6.38 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 68.7¢ | $308.51 | $382.96 | +$91.64 | 52% 924-843 (1767) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 59.9¢ | $322 | $374.95 | +$52.95 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75¢ | $367.61 | $363.03 | +$8.47 | 33% 751-1492 (2243) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 79.6¢ | $354.89 | $353.98 | -$0.91 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.9¢ | $387.8 | $270.13 | -$17.19 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $301.69 | $254.15 | -$47.54 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74¢ | $234.82 | $214.24 | -$20.58 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 74.6¢ | $250.73 | $199.99 | -$49.62 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $188.53 | $200 | +$11.47 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66¢ | $132 | $200 | +$68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.3¢ | $56.53 | — | -$56.53 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $151.63 | $174.97 | +$23.34 | 48% 2338-2522 (4860) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.9¢ | $111.78 | $174.97 | +$63.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.7¢ | $39.85 | — | -$39.85 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $143.06 | $288.45 | +$145.39 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
BO bosona | Downavg 83¢ | $127.46 | $145.56 | +$18.1 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $136.87 | $127.5 | -$9.37 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 93.4¢ | $115.93 | $119.39 | +$3.46 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 83¢ | $129.21 | $105.12 | +$10.11 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 63.5¢ | $105.5 | $99.99 | +$6.5 | 54% 4606-3984 (8590) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $98.66 | $96 | -$2.66 | 50% 802-796 (1598) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 32.9¢ | $88.44 | $60.69 | -$27.75 | 53% 413-370 (783) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.9¢ | $50.31 | — | -$50.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.8¢ | $38.12 | $60.69 | +$22.56 |
Invested
$8,872
Value
—
PnL
$-8.6K
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$9.36
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$57
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
Invested
$1,061.97
Value
$923.92
PnL
-$135.67
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$573.45
Value
$532.46
PnL
-$39.93
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$591.09
Value
$491.02
PnL
-$6.38
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$308.51
Value
$382.96
PnL
+$91.64
Record
52%
924-843 (1767)
Invested
$322
Value
$374.95
PnL
+$52.95
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Invested
$367.61
Value
$363.03
PnL
+$8.47
Record
33%
751-1492 (2243)
Invested
$354.89
Value
$353.98
PnL
-$0.91
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$387.8
Value
$270.13
PnL
-$17.19
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$301.69
Value
$254.15
PnL
-$47.54
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$234.82
Value
$214.24
PnL
-$20.58
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$250.73
Value
$199.99
PnL
-$49.62
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$188.53
Value
$200
PnL
+$11.47
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.63
Value
$174.97
PnL
+$23.34
Record
48%
2338-2522 (4860)
Both legs:
Invested
$143.06
Value
$288.45
PnL
+$145.39
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Invested
$127.46
Value
$145.56
PnL
+$18.1
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$136.87
Value
$127.5
PnL
-$9.37
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
Invested
$115.93
Value
$119.39
PnL
+$3.46
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$129.21
Value
$105.12
PnL
+$10.11
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
FairValueMachineInvested
$105.5
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$6.5
Record
54%
4606-3984 (8590)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$98.66
Value
$96
PnL
-$2.66
Record
50%
802-796 (1598)
Invested
$88.44
Value
$60.69
PnL
-$27.75
Record
53%
413-370 (783)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.8K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $923.92
CrouchPredictions
Down — $532.46
ByteBadger92
Down — $491.02
wzbbb
Down — $382.96
blue.birds
Down — $374.95
ply-pm0
Down — $363.03