Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Down 25%
$9.8K
$-16.2K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 55 top traders (25%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.4K | 55% 454-372 (826) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$13.7 | 99% 884-7 (891) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 87.4¢ | $738 | $835.61 | +$97.6 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 87.9¢ | $761.58 | $764.47 | +$2.89 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 78.7¢ | $841.93 | $701.29 | -$91.33 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 89.5¢ | $596.55 | $585.38 | -$2.81 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $545.73 | $497.57 | +$11.04 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 85.7¢ | $481.48 | $425.25 | -$53.06 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
BO bosona | Upavg 88.6¢ | $459.9 | $515.5 | +$55.6 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 83.7¢ | $366.46 | $395.26 | +$28.8 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 81.9¢ | $321.81 | $298.28 | -$23.53 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 85.3¢ | $270.26 | $267 | -$3.26 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 88.2¢ | $290.25 | $271.91 | -$18.34 | 33% 751-1492 (2243) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 79.1¢ | $361.6 | $275.97 | +$14.37 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 83.4¢ | $125.11 | $150.08 | +$24.97 | 54% 4606-3984 (8590) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 86.4¢ | $131.5 | $135 | +$3.5 | 52% 928-854 (1782) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 75.5¢ | $83.94 | $111.24 | +$27.31 | 53% 413-370 (783) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 81.3¢ | $113.45 | $109.88 | -$3.57 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 87¢ | $95.35 | $109.58 | +$14.23 | 58% 5095-3753 (8848) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 79.9¢ | $77.17 | $96.45 | +$19.28 | 59% 1011-712 (1723) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $60.75 | $75 | +$14.25 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $62.57 | $81.09 | +$18.52 | 59% 1027-707 (1734) |
Invested
$8,771
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$1,356.24
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.7
Record
99%
884-7 (891)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
machinelearnedInvested
$738
Value
$835.61
PnL
+$97.6
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Invested
$761.58
Value
$764.47
PnL
+$2.89
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$841.93
Value
$701.29
PnL
-$91.33
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$596.55
Value
$585.38
PnL
-$2.81
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Invested
$545.73
Value
$497.57
PnL
+$11.04
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$481.48
Value
$425.25
PnL
-$53.06
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$459.9
Value
$515.5
PnL
+$55.6
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$366.46
Value
$395.26
PnL
+$28.8
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Invested
$321.81
Value
$298.28
PnL
-$23.53
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$270.26
Value
$267
PnL
-$3.26
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$290.25
Value
$271.91
PnL
-$18.34
Record
33%
751-1492 (2243)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$361.6
Value
$275.97
PnL
+$14.37
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
FairValueMachineInvested
$125.11
Value
$150.08
PnL
+$24.97
Record
54%
4606-3984 (8590)
Invested
$131.5
Value
$135
PnL
+$3.5
Record
52%
928-854 (1782)
Invested
$83.94
Value
$111.24
PnL
+$27.31
Record
53%
413-370 (783)
Invested
$113.45
Value
$109.88
PnL
-$3.57
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
Invested
$95.35
Value
$109.58
PnL
+$14.23
Record
58%
5095-3753 (8848)
Invested
$77.17
Value
$96.45
PnL
+$19.28
Record
59%
1011-712 (1723)
ohioism<$100Invested
$60.75
Value
$75
PnL
+$14.25
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$62.57
Value
$81.09
PnL
+$18.52
Record
59%
1027-707 (1734)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $1.4K
soswald1
Up — $950
machinelearned
Up — $835.61
mo-money
Up — $764.47
Bonereaper
Up — $701.29
blue.birds
Up — $585.38
ByteBadger92
Up — $497.57