Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 29%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$-17.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 49 top traders (29%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares18,058

Combined PnL$-17.3K

Up35 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,610

Combined PnL+$236.3

Down — 29%Up — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$9.0K	—	$-8.5K	55% 454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-5.0K	43% 306-413 (719)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.6K	45% 591-733 (1324)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.09	99% 884-7 (891)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 73¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$239.94	59% 1085-742 (1827)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.8¢	$545.48	$500	-$0.05	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 49.7¢	$426.86	$859.22	+$432.36	51% 1998-1928 (3926)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 67.2¢	$420.57	$419.43	-$1.15	48% 1094-1204 (2298)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 69.5¢	$421.86	$370.95	-$50.91	52% 5090-4775 (9865)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.5¢	$257.95	$370.95	+$113
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.1¢	$163.91	—	-$163.91
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$382.51	$386.37	+$3.86	98% 4086-84 (4170)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 69.6¢	$401.9	$382.36	-$19.54	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 69.1¢	$376.24	$294.18	-$82.06	44% 779-979 (1758)
ST stepahead	Upavg 64.6¢	$294.6	$302.6	+$7.99	55% 4505-3644 (8149)
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 82¢	$321.02	$257.86	-$63.16	52% 1539-1442 (2981)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82¢	$211.45	$257.86	+$46.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$109.57	—	-$109.57
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 72.7¢	$239.78	$222.01	-$17.76	46% 828-969 (1797)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$272.66	$195.52	-$3.94	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$109.78	$195.52	+$85.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$98.23	—	-$89.84
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 79¢	$238.92	$184.12	-$52.99	52% 924-843 (1767)
ohioism	Upavg 74.5¢	$163.7	$195	+$31.3	47% 2247-2492 (4739)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 55.4¢	$147.57	$146.93	-$0.65	50% 802-796 (1598)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$81.38	$146.93	+$65.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$66.2	—	-$66.2
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 80.6¢	$167.04	$145.02	-$22.03	51% 4780-4566 (9346)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.6¢	$116.82	$145.02	+$28.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$50.22	—	-$50.22
machinelearned	Upavg 81.9¢	$134.24	$148.12	+$13.88	47% 1110-1266 (2376)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 38.4¢	$138	$83.03	-$54.97	54% 4606-3984 (8590)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$87.7	—	-$87.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$50.3	$83.03	+$32.73
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 62.6¢	$113.56	$112.83	-$0.73	51% 1530-1451 (2981)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.6¢	$70.68	$112.83	+$42.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$42.88	—	-$42.88
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 73.9¢	$157.45	$111.34	-$2.21	33% 751-1492 (2243)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 62¢	$135.59	$119.04	+$5.57	62% 4286-2574 (6860)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,986

Value

—

PnL

$-8.5K

Record

55%

454-372 (826)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

43%

306-413 (719)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

45%

591-733 (1324)

THG.

Invested

$1,296.21

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.09

Record

99%

884-7 (891)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,532.54

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$239.94

Record

59%

1085-742 (1827)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$545.48

Value

$500

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$426.86

Value

$859.22

PnL

+$432.36

Record

51%

1998-1928 (3926)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$420.57

Value

$419.43

PnL

-$1.15

Record

48%

1094-1204 (2298)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$421.86

Value

$370.95

PnL

-$50.91

Record

52%

5090-4775 (9865)

Both legs:

Up$257.9569.5¢+$113

Down$163.9132.1¢-$163.91

hoodquant

Invested

$382.51

Value

$386.37

PnL

+$3.86

Record

98%

4086-84 (4170)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$401.9

Value

$382.36

PnL

-$19.54

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$376.24

Value

$294.18

PnL

-$82.06

Record

44%

779-979 (1758)

stepahead

Invested

$294.6

Value

$302.6

PnL

+$7.99

Record

55%

4505-3644 (8149)

almachARB<$100

Invested

$321.02

Value

$257.86

PnL

-$63.16

Record

52%

1539-1442 (2981)

Both legs:

Up$211.4582¢+$46.41

Down$109.5742.5¢-$109.57

GoodFallen

Invested

$239.78

Value

$222.01

PnL

-$17.76

Record

46%

828-969 (1797)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$272.66

Value

$195.52

PnL

-$3.94

Record

51%

2336-2212 (4548)

Both legs:

Up$109.7856.1¢+$85.9

Down$98.2332.2¢-$89.84

wzbbb

Invested

$238.92

Value

$184.12

PnL

-$52.99

Record

52%

924-843 (1767)

ohioism

Invested

$163.7

Value

$195

PnL

+$31.3

Record

47%

2247-2492 (4739)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$147.57

Value

$146.93

PnL

-$0.65

Record

50%

802-796 (1598)

Both legs:

Up$81.3855.4¢+$65.55

Down$66.240.4¢-$66.2

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$167.04

Value

$145.02

PnL

-$22.03

Record

51%

4780-4566 (9346)

Both legs:

Up$116.8280.6¢+$28.19

Down$50.2234.6¢-$50.22

machinelearned

Invested

$134.24

Value

$148.12

PnL

+$13.88

Record

47%

1110-1266 (2376)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$138

Value

$83.03

PnL

-$54.97

Record

54%

4606-3984 (8590)

Both legs:

Down$87.738.4¢-$87.7

Up$50.360.6¢+$32.73

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$113.56

Value

$112.83

PnL

-$0.73

Record

51%

1530-1451 (2981)

Both legs:

Up$70.6862.6¢+$42.15

Down$42.8838¢-$42.88

ply-pm0

Invested

$157.45

Value

$111.34

PnL

-$2.21

Record

33%

751-1492 (2243)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$135.59

Value

$119.04

PnL

+$5.57

Record

62%

4286-2574 (6860)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 49 top traders (29%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x374776fc...cfbf8b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794719400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $0

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

machine-earning

Down — $0

THG.

Up — $1.3K

+$13.09

Bonereaper

Up — $1.3K

-$239.94

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

-$0.05

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $859.22

+$432.36

CrouchPredictions

Up — $419.43

-$1.15

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$50.91

hoodquant

Up — $386.37

+$3.86

Trade on Polymarket