Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$20.3K
$-4.7K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 52 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.6K | +$50.59 | 55% 454-372 (826) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$89.63 | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$15.93 | 99% 884-7 (891) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 88.9¢ | $711 | $800 | +$89 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 95.3¢ | $545.02 | $568.75 | +$23.72 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 66.8¢ | $570 | $496.56 | -$73.45 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $507.56 | $498.32 | +$0.62 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $250.02 | $498.32 | +$248.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $246.68 | — | -$248.3 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $442.96 | $452 | +$9.04 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 89.7¢ | $478.45 | $360.59 | -$117.86 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 69.9¢ | $253.15 | $305.57 | +$52.42 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 79.8¢ | $493.65 | $299.99 | -$30.74 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
AL almach | Downavg 91.1¢ | $211.76 | $232.41 | +$20.65 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
BO bosona | Downavg 85.3¢ | $158.8 | $184.9 | +$26.1 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.1¢ | $198.01 | $152.38 | -$45.64 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $161.82 | $161.98 | +$0.16 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 82.9¢ | $142.06 | $152.35 | +$10.29 | 33% 751-1492 (2243) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $141.18 | $143.99 | +$2.81 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 61.9¢ | $74.28 | $119.97 | +$45.69 | 41% 808-1143 (1951) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 66.1¢ | $109.66 | $115.52 | +$5.86 | 54% 4606-3984 (8590) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 77.4¢ | $107.97 | $128.99 | +$21.02 | 52% 924-843 (1767) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 85.6¢ | $122.52 | $84.72 | -$37.8 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $97.62 | $85.35 | +$17.49 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 86.8¢ | $79.77 | $79.73 | -$0.04 | 52% 928-854 (1782) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $53.62 | $67.58 | +$13.96 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
Invested
$8,778
Value
$8.6K
PnL
+$50.59
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$89.63
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$1,576.98
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$15.93
Record
99%
884-7 (891)
machinelearnedInvested
$711
Value
$800
PnL
+$89
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Invested
$545.02
Value
$568.75
PnL
+$23.72
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$570
Value
$496.56
PnL
-$73.45
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$507.56
Value
$498.32
PnL
+$0.62
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Both legs:
Invested
$442.96
Value
$452
PnL
+$9.04
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$478.45
Value
$360.59
PnL
-$117.86
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$253.15
Value
$305.57
PnL
+$52.42
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$493.65
Value
$299.99
PnL
-$30.74
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$211.76
Value
$232.41
PnL
+$20.65
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Invested
$158.8
Value
$184.9
PnL
+$26.1
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$198.01
Value
$152.38
PnL
-$45.64
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$161.82
Value
$161.98
PnL
+$0.16
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
Invested
$142.06
Value
$152.35
PnL
+$10.29
Record
33%
751-1492 (2243)
Invested
$141.18
Value
$143.99
PnL
+$2.81
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$74.28
Value
$119.97
PnL
+$45.69
Record
41%
808-1143 (1951)
FairValueMachineInvested
$109.66
Value
$115.52
PnL
+$5.86
Record
54%
4606-3984 (8590)
Invested
$107.97
Value
$128.99
PnL
+$21.02
Record
52%
924-843 (1767)
Invested
$122.52
Value
$84.72
PnL
-$37.8
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
Invested
$97.62
Value
$85.35
PnL
+$17.49
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Invested
$79.77
Value
$79.73
PnL
-$0.04
Record
52%
928-854 (1782)
Invested
$53.62
Value
$67.58
PnL
+$13.96
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
THG.
Down — $1.6K
machinelearned
Down — $800
mo-money
Down — $568.75
Bonereaper
Down — $496.56
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $452
CrouchPredictions
Down — $360.59