Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Up 42%
$6.0K
$-17.0K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 55 top traders (42%)23 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.4K | 55% 454-372 (826) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$161.7 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $584.96 | $486.83 | +$8.74 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 86.1¢ | $434.37 | $430.98 | -$3.4 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.9¢ | $439.74 | $350.81 | -$88.93 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 76.5¢ | $328.02 | $343.92 | +$15.9 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 69.2¢ | $219.17 | $316.67 | +$97.5 | 54% 4606-3984 (8590) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 78.8¢ | $238.69 | $302.92 | +$64.22 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.4¢ | $294.13 | $249.86 | -$38.79 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 87.7¢ | $263.11 | $242.77 | -$20.34 | 53% 413-370 (783) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 80.3¢ | $199.53 | $207 | +$7.46 | 52% 924-843 (1767) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $142.26 | $153.7 | +$16.31 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 95¢ | $128.9 | $126 | -$2.9 | 51% 823-801 (1624) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $115.98 | $122.02 | +$6.04 | 52% 928-854 (1782) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $267.19 | $118 | -$13.84 | 33% 751-1492 (2243) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 84.5¢ | $193.33 | $111.62 | -$69.28 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 37.1¢ | $234.16 | — | -$234.16 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
BO bosona | Downavg 83.1¢ | $108.14 | $107.94 | -$0.2 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 78¢ | $113.56 | $92.44 | -$21.12 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $97.82 | $85.66 | -$12.16 | 41% 808-1143 (1951) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $78.09 | $78.76 | +$0.66 | 59% 1004-705 (1709) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $38.42 | $63 | +$24.58 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Downavg 81.8¢ | $60.03 | $65 | +$5.24 | 59% 1011-712 (1723) |
Invested
$8,772
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
55%
454-372 (826)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
Invested
$1,355.41
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$161.7
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$584.96
Value
$486.83
PnL
+$8.74
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$434.37
Value
$430.98
PnL
-$3.4
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Invested
$439.74
Value
$350.81
PnL
-$88.93
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$328.02
Value
$343.92
PnL
+$15.9
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
FairValueMachineInvested
$219.17
Value
$316.67
PnL
+$97.5
Record
54%
4606-3984 (8590)
machinelearnedInvested
$238.69
Value
$302.92
PnL
+$64.22
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$294.13
Value
$249.86
PnL
-$38.79
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$263.11
Value
$242.77
PnL
-$20.34
Record
53%
413-370 (783)
Invested
$199.53
Value
$207
PnL
+$7.46
Record
52%
924-843 (1767)
Invested
$142.26
Value
$153.7
PnL
+$16.31
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
Invested
$128.9
Value
$126
PnL
-$2.9
Record
51%
823-801 (1624)
Invested
$115.98
Value
$122.02
PnL
+$6.04
Record
52%
928-854 (1782)
Invested
$267.19
Value
$118
PnL
-$13.84
Record
33%
751-1492 (2243)
Invested
$193.33
Value
$111.62
PnL
-$69.28
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
Invested
$234.16
Value
—
PnL
-$234.16
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$108.14
Value
$107.94
PnL
-$0.2
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$113.56
Value
$92.44
PnL
-$21.12
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$97.82
Value
$85.66
PnL
-$12.16
Record
41%
808-1143 (1951)
Invested
$78.09
Value
$78.76
PnL
+$0.66
Record
59%
1004-705 (1709)
Invested
$38.42
Value
$63
PnL
+$24.58
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$60.03
Value
$65
PnL
+$5.24
Record
59%
1011-712 (1723)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
Down — $486.83
blue.birds
Down — $430.98
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $350.81
stepahead
Down — $343.92
FairValueMachine
Down — $316.67
machinelearned
Down — $302.92