Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.4K

Combined PnL

$191.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 35 top traders (80%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares14,707

Combined PnL+$340.33

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares616

Combined PnL-$149.18

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9.01	52% 1470-1346 (2816)
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$34.59	43% 306-413 (719)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.5K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$153.72	45% 591-733 (1324)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	$3.9K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.8K
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$51.42	48% 1094-1204 (2298)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.9¢	$921.95	$1.0K	+$126.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$178.39	—	-$178.39
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99.5¢	$796.39	$799.99	+$3.6	50% 1655-1677 (3332)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$16.88	98% 4086-84 (4170)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 37.9¢	$545.58	$357.71	-$187.86	59% 1085-742 (1827)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$279.28	—	-$279.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.4¢	$266.3	$357.71	+$91.41
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48.6¢	$247.89	$509.57	+$261.68	51% 1998-1928 (3926)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$549	$503.33	-$4.78	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.9¢	$250.72	—	-$253.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.7¢	$260.34	$503.33	+$248.45
machinelearned	Downavg 91.4¢	$823	$900	+$77	47% 1110-1266 (2376)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$330.52	$332.6	+$2.08	55% 4505-3644 (8149)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.5¢	$115.43	—	-$115.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$215.1	$332.6	+$117.51
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	$435.86	$434.32	-$1.55	52% 1539-1442 (2981)
└ Down leg	Downavg 95.5¢	$414.75	$434.32	+$19.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.3¢	$21.11	—	-$21.11
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 82.3¢	$277.11	$258	-$19.11	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$217.78	$219.98	+$2.2	99% 884-7 (891)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 87.9¢	$352.23	$258.62	+$8.96	55% 454-372 (826)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.9¢	$227.34	$258.62	+$48.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.3¢	$20.63	—	-$39.11
MO mo-money	Downavg 95.5¢	$763.6	$429.44	-$82.57	51% 1530-1451 (2981)
BO bosona	Downavg 82.2¢	$259.01	$312.43	+$53.43	51% 4780-4566 (9346)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 80.4¢	$412.69	$173.36	-$67.9	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57¢	$138.53	$181.66	+$43.13	44% 779-979 (1758)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$103.51	$181.66	+$78.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.7¢	$35.02	—	-$35.02
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 83.4¢	$191.87	$181.17	-$10.7	33% 751-1492 (2243)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.4¢	$151.07	$181.17	+$30.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 33¢	$40.8	—	-$40.8
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 83.9¢	$84.9	$100	+$15.1	53% 413-370 (783)
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$1	—	-$1
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.9¢	$83.9	$100	+$16.1
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Upavg 31.3¢	$72.91	—	-$72.91	51% 833-804 (1637)
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Downavg 96.5¢	$49.08	$46.97	-$2.11	50% 3852-3795 (7647)
└ Up leg	Upavg 2.9¢	$3.76	—	-$3.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 96.5¢	$45.32	$46.97	+$1.65
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$74.87	$125.99	+$51.12	51% 823-801 (1624)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$72.45	$125.99	+$53.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.8¢	$2.42	—	-$2.42
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$63.92	$78.57	+$14.65	67% 3650-1820 (5470)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$8,997.01

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$9.01

Record

52%

1470-1346 (2816)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$34.59

Record

43%

306-413 (719)

Both legs:

Down$2,50050¢+$2.5K

Up$2,211.7950¢$-2.5K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$153.72

Record

45%

591-733 (1324)

Both legs:

Down$1,939.4950¢+$1.9K

Up$1,586.0950¢$-1.8K

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,100.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$51.42

Record

48%

1094-1204 (2298)

Both legs:

Down$921.9587.9¢+$126.97

Up$178.3930.5¢-$178.39

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$796.39

Value

$799.99

PnL

+$3.6

Record

50%

1655-1677 (3332)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,119.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.88

Record

98%

4086-84 (4170)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$545.58

Value

$357.71

PnL

-$187.86

Record

59%

1085-742 (1827)

Both legs:

Up$279.2837.9¢-$279.28

Down$266.374.4¢+$91.41

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$247.89

Value

$509.57

PnL

+$261.68

Record

51%

1998-1928 (3926)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$549

Value

$503.33

PnL

-$4.78

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

Both legs:

Up$250.7248.9¢-$253.23

Down$260.3451.7¢+$248.45

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$823

Value

$900

PnL

+$77

Record

47%

1110-1266 (2376)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$330.52

Value

$332.6

PnL

+$2.08

Record

55%

4505-3644 (8149)

Both legs:

Up$115.4333.5¢-$115.43

Down$215.164.7¢+$117.51

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$435.86

Value

$434.32

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

1539-1442 (2981)

Both legs:

Down$414.7595.5¢+$19.57

Up$21.1119.3¢-$21.11

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$277.11

Value

$258

PnL

-$19.11

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

THG.

Down

Invested

$217.78

Value

$219.98

PnL

+$2.2

Record

99%

884-7 (891)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$352.23

Value

$258.62

PnL

+$8.96

Record

55%

454-372 (826)

Both legs:

Down$227.3487.9¢+$48.07

Up$20.6312.3¢-$39.11

mo-money

Down

Invested

$763.6

Value

$429.44

PnL

-$82.57

Record

51%

1530-1451 (2981)

bosona

Down

Invested

$259.01

Value

$312.43

PnL

+$53.43

Record

51%

4780-4566 (9346)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$412.69

Value

$173.36

PnL

-$67.9

Record

51%

2336-2212 (4548)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$138.53

Value

$181.66

PnL

+$43.13

Record

44%

779-979 (1758)

Both legs:

Down$103.5157¢+$78.15

Up$35.0223.7¢-$35.02

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$191.87

Value

$181.17

PnL

-$10.7

Record

33%

751-1492 (2243)

Both legs:

Down$151.0783.4¢+$30.1

Up$40.833¢-$40.8

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.9

Value

$100

PnL

+$15.1

Record

53%

413-370 (783)

Both legs:

Up$11¢-$1

Down$83.983.9¢+$16.1

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Invested

$72.91

Value

—

PnL

-$72.91

Record

51%

833-804 (1637)

PapeasyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$49.08

Value

$46.97

PnL

-$2.11

Record

50%

3852-3795 (7647)

Both legs:

Up$3.762.9¢-$3.76

Down$45.3296.5¢+$1.65

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$74.87

Value

$125.99

PnL

+$51.12

Record

51%

823-801 (1624)

Both legs:

Down$72.4557.5¢+$53.55

Up$2.425.8¢-$2.42

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$63.92

Value

$78.57

PnL

+$14.65

Record

67%

3650-1820 (5470)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 35 top traders (80%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6933b8cf...422c86

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794718500

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $9.0K

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $799.99

+$3.6

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$16.88

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$187.86

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $509.57

+$261.68

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4.78

machinelearned

Down — $900

+$77

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