Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 78%
3 arb excluded
$20.3K
$1.0K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 55 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$12.5 | 43% 302-406 (708) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | +$51.77 | 45% 587-726 (1313) |
AL almach | Upavg 80.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$319.07 | 52% 1527-1435 (2962) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 64.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$73.04 | 59% 1080-736 (1816) |
BO bosona | Upavg 80.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$265.51 | 51% 4768-4559 (9327) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3603-3367 (6970) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 85¢ | $791.55 | $931.05 | +$139.5 | 51% 1517-1445 (2962) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 67.9¢ | $783.04 | $852.5 | +$72.76 | 44% 773-974 (1747) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 40.1¢ | $1.1K | $173 | -$904.57 | 51% 1980-1923 (3903) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.1¢ | $991.07 | — | -$991.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $86.5 | $173 | +$86.5 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 65.7¢ | $556.65 | $519.38 | +$52.46 | 51% 2323-2193 (4516) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.2¢ | $559.59 | $501.8 | -$1.19 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $447.48 | $452 | +$4.52 | 98% 4049-84 (4133) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 79.3¢ | $326.12 | $300.51 | +$24.83 | 52% 5083-4768 (9851) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 63.9¢ | $251.73 | $289.72 | +$37.99 | 46% 824-962 (1786) |
 ohioism | Upavg 67.5¢ | $201.32 | $274.97 | +$73.64 | 47% 2226-2478 (4704) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 69.1¢ | $238.36 | $253.97 | +$15.6 | 55% 4495-3639 (8134) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $210.33 | $181.09 | -$29.24 | 52% 916-840 (1756) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.5¢ | $118.53 | $181.09 | +$62.56 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.6¢ | $91.8 | — | -$91.8 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 87.2¢ | $273.3 | $143.72 | -$6.82 | 62% 4256-2556 (6812) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 59¢ | $129.56 | $133.98 | +$5.95 | 50% 799-788 (1587) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 64.7¢ | $107.1 | $138.47 | +$31.37 | 47% 2327-2591 (4918) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 64.4¢ | $119.91 | $120.11 | +$30.39 | 33% 745-1487 (2232) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $120 | $100 | -$20 | 53% 407-366 (773) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $66 | $100 | +$34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $54 | — | -$54 | |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $73.5 | $80 | +$6.5 | 44% 2227-2869 (5096) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 42.7¢ | $109.02 | — | -$94.76 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
 NIULAI4<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $71.97 | $74 | +$2.03 | 29% 518-1293 (1811) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$12.5
Record
43%
302-406 (708)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$51.77
Record
45%
587-726 (1313)
Invested
$1,328.01
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$319.07
Record
52%
1527-1435 (2962)
Invested
$1,298
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$73.04
Record
59%
1080-736 (1816)
Invested
$1,112
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$265.51
Record
51%
4768-4559 (9327)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3603-3367 (6970)
Invested
$791.55
Value
$931.05
PnL
+$139.5
Record
51%
1517-1445 (2962)
Invested
$783.04
Value
$852.5
PnL
+$72.76
Record
44%
773-974 (1747)
Invested
$1,077.57
Value
$173
PnL
-$904.57
Record
51%
1980-1923 (3903)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$556.65
Value
$519.38
PnL
+$52.46
Record
51%
2323-2193 (4516)
Invested
$559.59
Value
$501.8
PnL
-$1.19
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Invested
$447.48
Value
$452
PnL
+$4.52
Record
98%
4049-84 (4133)
Invested
$326.12
Value
$300.51
PnL
+$24.83
Record
52%
5083-4768 (9851)
Invested
$251.73
Value
$289.72
PnL
+$37.99
Record
46%
824-962 (1786)
ohioismInvested
$201.32
Value
$274.97
PnL
+$73.64
Record
47%
2226-2478 (4704)
Invested
$238.36
Value
$253.97
PnL
+$15.6
Record
55%
4495-3639 (8134)
Invested
$210.33
Value
$181.09
PnL
-$29.24
Record
52%
916-840 (1756)
Both legs:
Invested
$273.3
Value
$143.72
PnL
-$6.82
Record
62%
4256-2556 (6812)
OhioAIInvested
$129.56
Value
$133.98
PnL
+$5.95
Record
50%
799-788 (1587)
Invested
$107.1
Value
$138.47
PnL
+$31.37
Record
47%
2327-2591 (4918)
Invested
$119.91
Value
$120.11
PnL
+$30.39
Record
33%
745-1487 (2232)
Invested
$120
Value
$100
PnL
-$20
Record
53%
407-366 (773)
Both legs:
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$73.5
Value
$80
PnL
+$6.5
Record
44%
2227-2869 (5096)
Invested
$109.02
Value
—
PnL
-$94.76
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
NIULAI4<$100Invested
$71.97
Value
$74
PnL
+$2.03
Record
29%
518-1293 (1811)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
Up — $3.7K
almach
Up — $1.6K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.4K
bosona
Up — $1.4K
soswald1
Up — $950
mo-money
Up — $931.05
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $852.5
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $519.38