Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 71%
4 arb excluded
$14.2K
$-6.9K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 57 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%38 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 43% 306-413 (719) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 45% 591-733 (1324) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$23.42 | 70% 1721-726 (2447) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.76 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 58.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$25.37 | 59% 1085-742 (1827) |
BO bosona | Upavg 69.8¢ | $845.92 | $1.2K | +$319.92 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $652.84 | $1.5K | +$806.83 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
AL almach | Upavg 73.5¢ | $616.98 | $731.26 | +$114.28 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 62.5¢ | $472.79 | $624.73 | +$151.94 | 48% 1094-1204 (2298) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 68.4¢ | $419.66 | $613.52 | +$193.85 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $560.52 | $484.18 | +$6.18 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 51.4¢ | $388.58 | $454.37 | +$65.79 | 44% 779-979 (1758) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 65.7¢ | $273.77 | $334.85 | +$61.08 | 55% 4505-3644 (8149) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 50.9¢ | $237.72 | $257.46 | +$19.74 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 18.5¢ | $155.09 | $96.33 | +$33.81 | 52% 5090-4775 (9865) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.5¢ | $51.77 | — | -$51.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53¢ | $51.09 | $96.33 | +$85.58 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 44.9¢ | $196.23 | $166.87 | -$29.36 | 46% 828-969 (1797) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.5¢ | $96.01 | $166.87 | +$70.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.9¢ | $100.23 | — | -$100.23 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 68.5¢ | $123.78 | $130.85 | +$7.07 | 47% 1110-1266 (2376) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 74.4¢ | $113.57 | $120.08 | +$6.51 | 52% 924-843 (1767) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $102.22 | $94.52 | -$7.69 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.1¢ | $55.38 | — | -$55.38 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $46.83 | $94.52 | +$47.69 | |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 40.2¢ | $74.58 | $52.14 | -$13.08 | 50% 802-796 (1598) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.2¢ | $38.64 | — | -$38.64 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $29.22 | $52.14 | +$25.56 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $76.37 | $80 | +$3.63 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 78.6¢ | $108.46 | $114.91 | +$6.75 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $69.05 | $60 | -$9.05 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $55.88 | $63 | +$7.11 | 51% 820-791 (1611) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $58.73 | $46.25 | -$12.48 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
43%
306-413 (719)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
45%
591-733 (1324)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,318.84
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$23.42
Record
70%
1721-726 (2447)
Invested
$2,977.25
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.76
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
Invested
$1,225.1
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$25.37
Record
59%
1085-742 (1827)
Invested
$845.92
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$319.92
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$652.84
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$806.83
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Invested
$616.98
Value
$731.26
PnL
+$114.28
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Invested
$472.79
Value
$624.73
PnL
+$151.94
Record
48%
1094-1204 (2298)
Invested
$419.66
Value
$613.52
PnL
+$193.85
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$560.52
Value
$484.18
PnL
+$6.18
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$388.58
Value
$454.37
PnL
+$65.79
Record
44%
779-979 (1758)
Invested
$273.77
Value
$334.85
PnL
+$61.08
Record
55%
4505-3644 (8149)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$237.72
Value
$257.46
PnL
+$19.74
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$155.09
Value
$96.33
PnL
+$33.81
Record
52%
5090-4775 (9865)
Both legs:
Invested
$196.23
Value
$166.87
PnL
-$29.36
Record
46%
828-969 (1797)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$123.78
Value
$130.85
PnL
+$7.07
Record
47%
1110-1266 (2376)
Invested
$113.57
Value
$120.08
PnL
+$6.51
Record
52%
924-843 (1767)
Invested
$102.22
Value
$94.52
PnL
-$7.69
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Both legs:
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$74.58
Value
$52.14
PnL
-$13.08
Record
50%
802-796 (1598)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.37
Value
$80
PnL
+$3.63
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
Invested
$108.46
Value
$114.91
PnL
+$6.75
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
ohioism<$100Invested
$69.05
Value
$60
PnL
-$9.05
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$55.88
Value
$63
PnL
+$7.11
Record
51%
820-791 (1611)
Invested
$58.73
Value
$46.25
PnL
-$12.48
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $2.3K
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
bosona
Up — $1.2K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.5K
almach
Up — $731.26
CrouchPredictions
Up — $624.73
mo-money
Up — $613.52