Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 69%
1 arb excluded
$14.4K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 55 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$8.25 | 43% 302-406 (708) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$32.54 | 45% 587-726 (1313) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $697.32 | $704.88 | +$7.56 | 98% 4049-84 (4133) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 92.7¢ | $602.5 | $574.6 | -$27.9 | 48% 1087-1196 (2283) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 53.2¢ | $458.78 | $521.7 | +$85.62 | 59% 1080-736 (1816) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.9¢ | $528.24 | — | -$490.66 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 59.7¢ | $310.9 | $443.67 | +$148.74 | 52% 916-840 (1756) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 85.5¢ | $431.05 | $364.39 | -$66.66 | 53% 407-366 (773) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $304.46 | $257.78 | -$46.67 | 33% 745-1487 (2232) |
BO bosona | Downavg 90¢ | $227.37 | $251.6 | +$24.23 | 51% 4768-4559 (9327) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 70.5¢ | $171.05 | $221.42 | +$50.37 | 51% 819-800 (1619) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 70.6¢ | $227.44 | $205.29 | -$22.15 | 55% 4495-3639 (8134) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 62.6¢ | $163.25 | $208.55 | +$45.3 | 50% 799-788 (1587) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 91.8¢ | $207.9 | $210.07 | +$2.16 | 51% 1517-1445 (2962) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 70.8¢ | $173.87 | $156.43 | -$17.44 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
AL almach | Downavg 94.5¢ | $175.21 | $165.01 | -$10.2 | 52% 1527-1435 (2962) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 43.2¢ | $239.2 | — | -$239.2 | 44% 773-974 (1747) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $109.55 | $136.23 | +$26.68 | 47% 2327-2591 (4918) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $105.67 | $105.78 | +$0.11 | 52% 1462-1344 (2806) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 49¢ | $79.28 | $100 | +$20.72 | 51% 815-787 (1602) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 70.9¢ | $151.08 | $93.97 | +$31.44 | 52% 5083-4768 (9851) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 95.8¢ | $78.65 | $79.61 | +$0.96 | 39% 1562-2438 (4000) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 44.7¢ | $199.16 | — | -$179.61 | 46% 824-962 (1786) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $93.36 | $73.51 | -$19.85 | 51% 2323-2193 (4516) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $91.03 | $66.53 | -$5.9 | 62% 4256-2556 (6812) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$8.25
Record
43%
302-406 (708)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$32.54
Record
45%
587-726 (1313)
Invested
$697.32
Value
$704.88
PnL
+$7.56
Record
98%
4049-84 (4133)
Invested
$602.5
Value
$574.6
PnL
-$27.9
Record
48%
1087-1196 (2283)
Invested
$458.78
Value
$521.7
PnL
+$85.62
Record
59%
1080-736 (1816)
Invested
$528.24
Value
—
PnL
-$490.66
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Invested
$310.9
Value
$443.67
PnL
+$148.74
Record
52%
916-840 (1756)
Invested
$431.05
Value
$364.39
PnL
-$66.66
Record
53%
407-366 (773)
Invested
$304.46
Value
$257.78
PnL
-$46.67
Record
33%
745-1487 (2232)
Invested
$227.37
Value
$251.6
PnL
+$24.23
Record
51%
4768-4559 (9327)
Invested
$171.05
Value
$221.42
PnL
+$50.37
Record
51%
819-800 (1619)
Invested
$227.44
Value
$205.29
PnL
-$22.15
Record
55%
4495-3639 (8134)
OhioAIInvested
$163.25
Value
$208.55
PnL
+$45.3
Record
50%
799-788 (1587)
Invested
$207.9
Value
$210.07
PnL
+$2.16
Record
51%
1517-1445 (2962)
Invested
$173.87
Value
$156.43
PnL
-$17.44
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
Invested
$175.21
Value
$165.01
PnL
-$10.2
Record
52%
1527-1435 (2962)
Invested
$239.2
Value
—
PnL
-$239.2
Record
44%
773-974 (1747)
Invested
$109.55
Value
$136.23
PnL
+$26.68
Record
47%
2327-2591 (4918)
Invested
$105.67
Value
$105.78
PnL
+$0.11
Record
52%
1462-1344 (2806)
Invested
$79.28
Value
$100
PnL
+$20.72
Record
51%
815-787 (1602)
Invested
$151.08
Value
$93.97
PnL
+$31.44
Record
52%
5083-4768 (9851)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$78.65
Value
$79.61
PnL
+$0.96
Record
39%
1562-2438 (4000)
Invested
$199.16
Value
—
PnL
-$179.61
Record
46%
824-962 (1786)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$93.36
Value
$73.51
PnL
-$19.85
Record
51%
2323-2193 (4516)
Invested
$91.03
Value
$66.53
PnL
-$5.9
Record
62%
4256-2556 (6812)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
hoodquant
Down — $704.88
CrouchPredictions
Down — $574.6
Bonereaper
Down — $521.7
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
wzbbb
Down — $443.67
gansinimen
Down — $364.39
ply-pm0
Down — $257.78
bosona
Down — $251.6