Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
44
Down 52%
15 arb excluded
$11.7K
$-13.3K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 44 top traders (52%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 302-406 (708) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$36.13 | 99% 882-7 (889) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.2K | 45% 587-726 (1313) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 89.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$195.6 | 70% 1711-719 (2430) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 59¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 59% 1080-736 (1816) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3603-3367 (6970) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 38¢ | $681.59 | — | -$656.69 | 48% 1087-1196 (2283) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $591.86 | $492.99 | -$3.7 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.3¢ | $253.06 | — | -$252.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.6¢ | $239.59 | $492.99 | +$249.05 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 44.6¢ | $416.04 | $409.24 | -$6.8 | 44% 773-974 (1747) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.6¢ | $231.03 | — | -$231.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.2¢ | $185.01 | $409.24 | +$224.23 | |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 80.9¢ | $572.61 | — | -$572.61 | 47% 1104-1263 (2367) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 96.4¢ | $1.0K | $418.67 | -$226.34 | 51% 1517-1445 (2962) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 56.1¢ | $480.73 | — | -$460.42 | 52% 916-840 (1756) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 54.4¢ | $365.44 | — | -$365.44 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 59.4¢ | $430.77 | $328.1 | -$54.16 | 33% 745-1487 (2232) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $355.77 | $381.24 | +$25.47 | 46% 824-962 (1786) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $189.83 | $381.24 | +$191.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.6¢ | $165.94 | — | -$165.94 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 56¢ | $345.87 | $315.64 | -$30.23 | 55% 4495-3639 (8134) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 78.4¢ | $313.99 | $265.14 | -$48.85 | 52% 5083-4768 (9851) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $318.91 | $220.82 | -$98.08 | 52% 1527-1435 (2962) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.2¢ | $132.99 | $220.82 | +$87.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65¢ | $185.92 | — | -$185.92 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $315.67 | $220 | +$1.55 | 51% 2323-2193 (4516) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53¢ | $122.01 | — | -$131.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.1¢ | $92.67 | $220 | +$132.82 | |
 OhioAICTR | Downavg 56.5¢ | $307.19 | — | -$304.69 | 50% 799-788 (1587) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $167.74 | $233.78 | +$66.04 | 46% 741-863 (1604) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $115.55 | $233.78 | +$118.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.2¢ | $52.19 | — | -$52.19 | |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 32.4¢ | $119.23 | $192.88 | +$73.64 | 51% 819-800 (1619) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Upavg 44.1¢ | $181.23 | $289.71 | +$108.48 | 48% 2317-2509 (4826) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.1¢ | $127.68 | $289.71 | +$162.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $53.55 | — | -$53.55 | |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 48.3¢ | $152.86 | $157.99 | +$5.13 | 54% 4601-3979 (8580) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.8¢ | $70.79 | $157.99 | +$87.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.3¢ | $82.07 | — | -$82.07 | |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 84.3¢ | $197.29 | $154.74 | -$42.56 | 67% 3623-1806 (5429) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
302-406 (708)
Invested
$3,463.87
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$36.13
Record
99%
882-7 (889)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
45%
587-726 (1313)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,720.29
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$195.6
Record
70%
1711-719 (2430)
Invested
$1,711.6
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
59%
1080-736 (1816)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3603-3367 (6970)
Invested
$681.59
Value
—
PnL
-$656.69
Record
48%
1087-1196 (2283)
Invested
$591.86
Value
$492.99
PnL
-$3.7
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Both legs:
Invested
$416.04
Value
$409.24
PnL
-$6.8
Record
44%
773-974 (1747)
Both legs:
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$572.61
Value
—
PnL
-$572.61
Record
47%
1104-1263 (2367)
Invested
$1,020.12
Value
$418.67
PnL
-$226.34
Record
51%
1517-1445 (2962)
Invested
$480.73
Value
—
PnL
-$460.42
Record
52%
916-840 (1756)
Invested
$365.44
Value
—
PnL
-$365.44
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
Invested
$430.77
Value
$328.1
PnL
-$54.16
Record
33%
745-1487 (2232)
Invested
$355.77
Value
$381.24
PnL
+$25.47
Record
46%
824-962 (1786)
Both legs:
Invested
$345.87
Value
$315.64
PnL
-$30.23
Record
55%
4495-3639 (8134)
Invested
$313.99
Value
$265.14
PnL
-$48.85
Record
52%
5083-4768 (9851)
Invested
$318.91
Value
$220.82
PnL
-$98.08
Record
52%
1527-1435 (2962)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$315.67
Value
$220
PnL
+$1.55
Record
51%
2323-2193 (4516)
Both legs:
OhioAICTRInvested
$307.19
Value
—
PnL
-$304.69
Record
50%
799-788 (1587)
Invested
$167.74
Value
$233.78
PnL
+$66.04
Record
46%
741-863 (1604)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.23
Value
$192.88
PnL
+$73.64
Record
51%
819-800 (1619)
Invested
$181.23
Value
$289.71
PnL
+$108.48
Record
48%
2317-2509 (4826)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$152.86
Value
$157.99
PnL
+$5.13
Record
54%
4601-3979 (8580)
Both legs:
Invested
$197.29
Value
$154.74
PnL
-$42.56
Record
67%
3623-1806 (5429)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $1.9K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $950
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0