Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 55%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 49 top traders (55%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares24,618

Combined PnL+$301.33

Up22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,238

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Down — 55%Up — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50.4¢	$8.7K	$8.4K	-$87.16	55% 452-367 (819)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	+$65.98	43% 302-406 (708)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	+$165.22	45% 587-726 (1313)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 882-7 (889)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$35.71	59% 1080-736 (1816)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$650.34	$1.2K	+$510.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.9¢	$475.26	—	-$475.26
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	—	-$950	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 62¢	$819.82	$820.46	+$0.64	48% 1087-1196 (2283)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$657.24	$663.88	+$6.64	98% 4049-84 (4133)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 50.7¢	$719.73	$567.93	-$151.81	44% 773-974 (1747)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$340.2	$567.93	+$227.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$379.53	—	-$379.53
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$524.53	$542.03	+$17.5	33% 745-1487 (2232)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$295.74	$542.03	+$246.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.3¢	$228.79	—	-$228.79
BL blue.birds	Downavg 78.6¢	$733.34	$508.01	-$126.33	52% 5083-4768 (9851)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$439.43	$503.73	+$64.31	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$237.76	$503.73	+$265.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$201.67	—	-$201.67
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$561.38	—	-$470.1	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
ST stepahead	Downavg 74.3¢	$425.1	$443.07	+$17.96	55% 4495-3639 (8134)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 59.4¢	$513.93	—	-$508.01	46% 824-962 (1786)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 56¢	$217.11	$387.99	+$170.89	52% 916-840 (1756)
NIULAI4	Downavg 82.4¢	$371.76	$416	+$44.24	29% 518-1293 (1811)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$268.76	$266.17	-$2.58	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.4¢	$155.35	$266.17	+$110.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.6¢	$113.4	—	-$113.4
OhioAI	Downavg 55.4¢	$197.63	$195.13	-$0.33	50% 799-788 (1587)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 85.7¢	$186.91	$189	+$2.09	51% 819-800 (1619)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$170.29	$215.89	+$45.6	46% 741-863 (1604)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$141.4	$215.89	+$74.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.3¢	$28.9	—	-$28.9
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 28.3¢	$116.67	$58.28	-$58.39	52% 1527-1435 (2962)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$88.29	—	-$88.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$28.38	$58.28	+$29.9
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 82¢	$146.93	$157.5	+$10.57	51% 827-800 (1627)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82¢	$129.15	$157.5	+$28.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.4¢	$17.78	—	-$17.78
AS asdaefef	Downavg 82¢	$147.08	$132.21	-$14.87	67% 3623-1806 (5429)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 78.1¢	$153.64	$119.5	-$34.14	51% 815-787 (1602)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,677.3

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$87.16

Record

55%

452-367 (819)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$65.98

Record

43%

302-406 (708)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$165.22

Record

45%

587-726 (1313)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

882-7 (889)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,125.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$35.71

Record

59%

1080-736 (1816)

Both legs:

Down$650.3456¢+$510.97

Up$475.2645.9¢-$475.26

soswald1CTR

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$950

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$819.82

Value

$820.46

PnL

+$0.64

Record

48%

1087-1196 (2283)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$657.24

Value

$663.88

PnL

+$6.64

Record

98%

4049-84 (4133)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$719.73

Value

$567.93

PnL

-$151.81

Record

44%

773-974 (1747)

Both legs:

Down$340.259.9¢+$227.73

Up$379.5350.7¢-$379.53

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.53

Value

$542.03

PnL

+$17.5

Record

33%

745-1487 (2232)

Both legs:

Down$295.7454.6¢+$246.29

Up$228.7934.3¢-$228.79

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$733.34

Value

$508.01

PnL

-$126.33

Record

52%

5083-4768 (9851)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$439.43

Value

$503.73

PnL

+$64.31

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

Both legs:

Down$237.7647.2¢+$265.98

Up$201.6739.3¢-$201.67

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$561.38

Value

—

PnL

-$470.1

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$425.1

Value

$443.07

PnL

+$17.96

Record

55%

4495-3639 (8134)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$513.93

Value

—

PnL

-$508.01

Record

46%

824-962 (1786)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$217.11

Value

$387.99

PnL

+$170.89

Record

52%

916-840 (1756)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$371.76

Value

$416

PnL

+$44.24

Record

29%

518-1293 (1811)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$268.76

Value

$266.17

PnL

-$2.58

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

Both legs:

Down$155.3558.4¢+$110.82

Up$113.459.6¢-$113.4

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$197.63

Value

$195.13

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

799-788 (1587)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$186.91

Value

$189

PnL

+$2.09

Record

51%

819-800 (1619)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$170.29

Value

$215.89

PnL

+$45.6

Record

46%

741-863 (1604)

Both legs:

Down$141.465.5¢+$74.5

Up$28.920.3¢-$28.9

almachARB<$100

Invested

$116.67

Value

$58.28

PnL

-$58.39

Record

52%

1527-1435 (2962)

Both legs:

Up$88.2928.3¢-$88.29

Down$28.3848.7¢+$29.9

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.93

Value

$157.5

PnL

+$10.57

Record

51%

827-800 (1627)

Both legs:

Down$129.1582¢+$28.35

Up$17.7815.4¢-$17.78

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$147.08

Value

$132.21

PnL

-$14.87

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$153.64

Value

$119.5

PnL

-$34.14

Record

51%

815-787 (1602)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 49 top traders (55%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb0c3de20...e0f1b7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794716400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.4K

-$87.16

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.7K

+$65.98

machine-earning

Down — $3.5K

+$165.22

THG.

Down — $3.5K

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $820.46

+$0.64

hoodquant

Down — $663.88

+$6.64

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded