Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Down 53%
5 arb excluded
$24.0K
$-5.7K
Smart Money Signal
27 of 52 top traders (52%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.3K | -$101.17 | 55% 452-367 (819) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$15.1 | 43% 302-406 (708) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | +$46.26 | 45% 587-726 (1313) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $3.6K | +$1.8K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.7K | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 54.5¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 59% 1080-736 (1816) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$349.54 | 48% 1087-1196 (2283) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$10.46 | 99% 882-7 (889) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 41.3¢ | $272.99 | $660.99 | +$388 | 52% 916-840 (1756) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 60.3¢ | $707.62 | $659.6 | -$48.02 | 55% 4495-3639 (8134) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.8¢ | $1.0K | $614.84 | -$423.14 | 51% 4768-4559 (9327) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 54.7¢ | $658.14 | — | -$658.14 | 44% 773-974 (1747) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 52.4¢ | $550.69 | $528.08 | -$22.6 | 52% 5083-4768 (9851) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 79.2¢ | $760.95 | — | -$760.95 | 51% 1517-1445 (2962) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.5¢ | $524.26 | — | -$492.59 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 56.3¢ | $616.71 | — | -$614.01 | 46% 824-962 (1786) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $455.8 | $401.64 | -$54.16 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.3¢ | $182.01 | $401.64 | +$219.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.1¢ | $273.78 | — | -$273.78 | |
AL almach | Downavg 90.1¢ | $538.01 | $354.17 | -$183.84 | 52% 1527-1435 (2962) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $445.23 | $334.43 | -$110.8 | 33% 745-1487 (2232) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 43.1¢ | $279.68 | — | -$279.68 | 54% 4601-3979 (8580) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 46.6¢ | $217.07 | $233.09 | +$16.01 | 50% 799-788 (1587) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 60.9¢ | $201.88 | $204.5 | +$2.62 | 51% 2323-2193 (4516) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 38.8¢ | $175.01 | $275.92 | +$100.91 | 48% 763-826 (1589) |
LI Little-bigCTR | Upavg 59.5¢ | $148.9 | — | -$148.9 | 51% 1039-991 (2030) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 95.5¢ | $187.29 | $141.9 | -$45.39 | 67% 3623-1806 (5429) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $124.8 | $125.3 | +$0.5 | 52% 920-847 (1767) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $135.62 | $68.16 | -$67.46 | 46% 741-863 (1604) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.4¢ | $110.56 | — | -$110.56 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36.8¢ | $25.06 | $68.16 | +$43.1 |
Invested
$8,811
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$101.17
Record
55%
452-367 (819)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$15.1
Record
43%
302-406 (708)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$46.26
Record
45%
587-726 (1313)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,239.33
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
59%
1080-736 (1816)
Invested
$1,423.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$349.54
Record
48%
1087-1196 (2283)
Invested
$1,035.67
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.46
Record
99%
882-7 (889)
Invested
$272.99
Value
$660.99
PnL
+$388
Record
52%
916-840 (1756)
Invested
$707.62
Value
$659.6
PnL
-$48.02
Record
55%
4495-3639 (8134)
Invested
$1,037.99
Value
$614.84
PnL
-$423.14
Record
51%
4768-4559 (9327)
Invested
$658.14
Value
—
PnL
-$658.14
Record
44%
773-974 (1747)
Invested
$550.69
Value
$528.08
PnL
-$22.6
Record
52%
5083-4768 (9851)
Invested
$760.95
Value
—
PnL
-$760.95
Record
51%
1517-1445 (2962)
Invested
$524.26
Value
—
PnL
-$492.59
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Invested
$616.71
Value
—
PnL
-$614.01
Record
46%
824-962 (1786)
Invested
$455.8
Value
$401.64
PnL
-$54.16
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
Both legs:
Invested
$538.01
Value
$354.17
PnL
-$183.84
Record
52%
1527-1435 (2962)
Invested
$445.23
Value
$334.43
PnL
-$110.8
Record
33%
745-1487 (2232)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$279.68
Value
—
PnL
-$279.68
Record
54%
4601-3979 (8580)
OhioAIInvested
$217.07
Value
$233.09
PnL
+$16.01
Record
50%
799-788 (1587)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$201.88
Value
$204.5
PnL
+$2.62
Record
51%
2323-2193 (4516)
Invested
$175.01
Value
$275.92
PnL
+$100.91
Record
48%
763-826 (1589)
Invested
$148.9
Value
—
PnL
-$148.9
Record
51%
1039-991 (2030)
Invested
$187.29
Value
$141.9
PnL
-$45.39
Record
67%
3623-1806 (5429)
Invested
$124.8
Value
$125.3
PnL
+$0.5
Record
52%
920-847 (1767)
Invested
$135.62
Value
$68.16
PnL
-$67.46
Record
46%
741-863 (1604)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.3K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.7K
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
THG.
Down — $1.0K
wzbbb
Down — $660.99
stepahead
Down — $659.6
bosona
Down — $614.84
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0