Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Signal

32 of 48 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up32 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares17,216

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,076

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.3K	+$5.09	55% 452-367 (819)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.7K	43% 302-406 (708)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$160.31	45% 587-726 (1313)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.5K	+$1.8K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$34.63	99% 882-7 (889)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 52.7¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$397.2	59% 1080-736 (1816)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 31.6¢	$609.19	—	-$609.19	48% 1087-1196 (2283)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 52.3¢	$555.67	$685.96	+$130.29	44% 773-974 (1747)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 63.5¢	$556.45	$556.04	+$4.99	52% 5083-4768 (9851)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$581.6	$486.27	+$2.73	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$239.1	$486.27	+$250.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$249.6	—	-$247.89
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 52.5¢	$342.48	$324.76	+$16.99	52% 916-840 (1756)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 57.6¢	$314.39	$314.42	+$19.43	33% 745-1487 (2232)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 55.9¢	$248.45	$274.99	+$29.34	46% 824-962 (1786)
ST stepahead	Upavg 51.8¢	$225.5	$249.99	+$24.49	55% 4495-3639 (8134)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 28.4¢	$220.54	—	-$220.54	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$184.14	$186	+$1.86	98% 4049-84 (4133)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 65.1¢	$224.5	$172.06	-$28.94	54% 4601-3979 (8580)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 51.5¢	$84.43	$133.94	+$49.51	46% 741-863 (1604)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$199.24	$113.71	-$85.54	51% 4768-4559 (9327)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$55.39	$113.71	+$58.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.2¢	$143.85	—	-$143.85
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 68¢	$144.46	$132.34	-$12.12	52% 1527-1435 (2962)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.2¢	$54.47	$132.34	+$77.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 68¢	$89.99	—	-$89.99
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 54.6¢	$71.97	$131.86	+$59.89	41% 803-1137 (1940)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 41.6¢	$129.1	$115.75	-$13.35	48% 2317-2509 (4826)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$53.95	$115.75	+$61.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.6¢	$75.15	—	-$75.15
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 43.9¢	$217.49	—	-$92.34	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$195.03	$104.91	-$90.12	51% 827-800 (1627)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.3¢	$74.83	$104.91	+$30.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.7¢	$120.2	—	-$120.2
OhioAICTR	Downavg 37.9¢	$157.95	—	-$123.97	50% 799-788 (1587)
ohioism	Upavg 52.9¢	$80.7	$120	+$39.3	47% 2226-2478 (4704)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,625

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$5.09

Record

55%

452-367 (819)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

43%

302-406 (708)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$160.31

Record

45%

587-726 (1313)

Both legs:

Up$1,744.7550¢+$1.8K

Down$1,942.2250¢$-1.9K

THG.

Invested

$3,428.39

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$34.63

Record

99%

882-7 (889)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,020.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$397.2

Record

59%

1080-736 (1816)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$609.19

Value

—

PnL

-$609.19

Record

48%

1087-1196 (2283)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$555.67

Value

$685.96

PnL

+$130.29

Record

44%

773-974 (1747)

blue.birds

Invested

$556.45

Value

$556.04

PnL

+$4.99

Record

52%

5083-4768 (9851)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$581.6

Value

$486.27

PnL

+$2.73

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Up$239.149.2¢+$250.63

Down$249.649.3¢-$247.89

wzbbb

Invested

$342.48

Value

$324.76

PnL

+$16.99

Record

52%

916-840 (1756)

ply-pm0

Invested

$314.39

Value

$314.42

PnL

+$19.43

Record

33%

745-1487 (2232)

GoodFallen

Invested

$248.45

Value

$274.99

PnL

+$29.34

Record

46%

824-962 (1786)

stepahead

Invested

$225.5

Value

$249.99

PnL

+$24.49

Record

55%

4495-3639 (8134)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$220.54

Value

—

PnL

-$220.54

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

hoodquant

Invested

$184.14

Value

$186

PnL

+$1.86

Record

98%

4049-84 (4133)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$224.5

Value

$172.06

PnL

-$28.94

Record

54%

4601-3979 (8580)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$84.43

Value

$133.94

PnL

+$49.51

Record

46%

741-863 (1604)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$199.24

Value

$113.71

PnL

-$85.54

Record

51%

4768-4559 (9327)

Both legs:

Up$55.3948.7¢+$58.32

Down$143.8563.2¢-$143.85

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$144.46

Value

$132.34

PnL

-$12.12

Record

52%

1527-1435 (2962)

Both legs:

Up$54.4741.2¢+$77.87

Down$89.9968¢-$89.99

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$71.97

Value

$131.86

PnL

+$59.89

Record

41%

803-1137 (1940)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$129.1

Value

$115.75

PnL

-$13.35

Record

48%

2317-2509 (4826)

Both legs:

Up$53.9546.6¢+$61.8

Down$75.1541.6¢-$75.15

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$217.49

Value

—

PnL

-$92.34

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$195.03

Value

$104.91

PnL

-$90.12

Record

51%

827-800 (1627)

Both legs:

Up$74.8371.3¢+$30.08

Down$120.255.7¢-$120.2

OhioAICTR

Down

Invested

$157.95

Value

—

PnL

-$123.97

Record

50%

799-788 (1587)

ohioism

Invested

$80.7

Value

$120

PnL

+$39.3

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

Smart Money Signal

32 of 48 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcf37a542...52de8d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794715800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.3K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$34.63

Bonereaper

Up — $1.4K

+$397.2

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Down — $0

-$609.19

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $685.96

+$130.29

blue.birds

Up — $556.04

+$4.99

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.73

wzbbb

Up — $324.76

+$16.99

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