Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 63%
6 arb excluded
$15.0K
$-13.6K
Smart Money Signal
34 of 54 top traders (63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 448-363 (811) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$40.76 | 43% 298-399 (697) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 45% 582-717 (1299) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.44 | 99% 877-7 (884) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 46.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$184.71 | 59% 1071-730 (1801) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 49.7¢ | $859.94 | $924.53 | +$64.59 | 44% 762-970 (1732) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 64.7¢ | $752.51 | $648.56 | -$103.94 | 47% 1074-1189 (2263) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 59.3¢ | $584.99 | $599.1 | +$14.11 | 55% 4483-3631 (8114) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.6¢ | $564.55 | $571.11 | +$6.56 | 52% 5071-4760 (9831) |
AL almach | Downavg 94.3¢ | $585.29 | $520 | -$65.29 | 51% 1504-1428 (2932) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $530.04 | — | -$490.14 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $497.8 | — | -$497.8 | 46% 816-955 (1771) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $469.17 | $406.83 | -$62.34 | 33% 736-1481 (2217) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 48.2¢ | $314.95 | $395.77 | +$92.98 | 52% 907-834 (1741) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 51.3¢ | $303.3 | $352.2 | +$48.9 | 54% 4590-3975 (8565) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.7¢ | $278.54 | $275.53 | -$3.01 | 52% 2308-2166 (4474) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 57.8¢ | $227.51 | $239.99 | +$12.48 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.8¢ | $152.21 | — | -$152.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.4¢ | $75.3 | $239.99 | +$164.69 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 96¢ | $263.83 | $225.42 | -$38.4 | 51% 1495-1438 (2933) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 56.3¢ | $223.25 | $221.87 | -$1.38 | 41% 795-1131 (1926) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $224.07 | $247.93 | +$23.86 | 50% 788-784 (1572) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.5¢ | $130.09 | $247.93 | +$117.84 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55¢ | $93.98 | — | -$93.98 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 46.4¢ | $178.48 | $198.24 | +$19.76 | 52% 395-363 (758) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.4¢ | $91.96 | $198.24 | +$106.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.2¢ | $86.52 | — | -$86.52 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.8¢ | $257.71 | $175.44 | -$82.27 | 51% 4748-4550 (9298) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $168.3 | $167.5 | -$0.8 | 48% 756-818 (1574) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $197.07 | $150 | -$47.07 | 28% 510-1288 (1798) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98¢ | $187.93 | $132 | -$55.93 | 51% 1975-1916 (3891) |
Invested
$8,704
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
448-363 (811)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$40.76
Record
43%
298-399 (697)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
45%
582-717 (1299)
Invested
$1,330.06
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.44
Record
99%
877-7 (884)
Invested
$1,045.31
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$184.71
Record
59%
1071-730 (1801)
Invested
$859.94
Value
$924.53
PnL
+$64.59
Record
44%
762-970 (1732)
Invested
$752.51
Value
$648.56
PnL
-$103.94
Record
47%
1074-1189 (2263)
Invested
$584.99
Value
$599.1
PnL
+$14.11
Record
55%
4483-3631 (8114)
Invested
$564.55
Value
$571.11
PnL
+$6.56
Record
52%
5071-4760 (9831)
Invested
$585.29
Value
$520
PnL
-$65.29
Record
51%
1504-1428 (2932)
Invested
$530.04
Value
—
PnL
-$490.14
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Invested
$497.8
Value
—
PnL
-$497.8
Record
46%
816-955 (1771)
Invested
$469.17
Value
$406.83
PnL
-$62.34
Record
33%
736-1481 (2217)
Invested
$314.95
Value
$395.77
PnL
+$92.98
Record
52%
907-834 (1741)
FairValueMachineInvested
$303.3
Value
$352.2
PnL
+$48.9
Record
54%
4590-3975 (8565)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$278.54
Value
$275.53
PnL
-$3.01
Record
52%
2308-2166 (4474)
Invested
$227.51
Value
$239.99
PnL
+$12.48
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Both legs:
Invested
$263.83
Value
$225.42
PnL
-$38.4
Record
51%
1495-1438 (2933)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$223.25
Value
$221.87
PnL
-$1.38
Record
41%
795-1131 (1926)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$224.07
Value
$247.93
PnL
+$23.86
Record
50%
788-784 (1572)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.48
Value
$198.24
PnL
+$19.76
Record
52%
395-363 (758)
Both legs:
Invested
$257.71
Value
$175.44
PnL
-$82.27
Record
51%
4748-4550 (9298)
Invested
$168.3
Value
$167.5
PnL
-$0.8
Record
48%
756-818 (1574)
NIULAI4Invested
$197.07
Value
$150
PnL
-$47.07
Record
28%
510-1288 (1798)
Invested
$187.93
Value
$132
PnL
-$55.93
Record
51%
1975-1916 (3891)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $1.3K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $924.53
CrouchPredictions
Down — $648.56
stepahead
Down — $599.1
blue.birds
Down — $571.11
almach
Down — $520