Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 60%
$15.9K
$-13.6K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 54 top traders (61%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 448-363 (811) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 43% 298-399 (697) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | +$152.12 | 45% 582-717 (1299) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 877-7 (884) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 50.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$115.4 | 59% 1071-730 (1801) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.26 | 98% 3999-84 (4083) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 42¢ | $648.79 | $779.4 | +$130.61 | 47% 1074-1189 (2263) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 41¢ | $575.2 | $703.25 | +$245.99 | 52% 907-834 (1741) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $570.38 | — | -$499.92 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 72.2¢ | $554.91 | $466.56 | -$88.35 | 52% 5071-4760 (9831) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 47.6¢ | $399.94 | $427.81 | +$27.87 | 55% 4483-3631 (8114) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 44.5¢ | $370.07 | — | -$370.07 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 46.7¢ | $411.33 | — | -$411.33 | 44% 762-970 (1732) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 57.9¢ | $285.03 | $307.95 | +$22.92 | 46% 816-955 (1771) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 66.3¢ | $300.97 | $271.44 | -$22.91 | 33% 736-1481 (2217) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 64¢ | $488.6 | $248.54 | +$8.38 | 52% 2308-2166 (4474) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 60.3¢ | $173.19 | $231.72 | +$58.53 | 41% 795-1131 (1926) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 66.5¢ | $230.37 | $200 | -$30.37 | 52% 395-363 (758) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 54.3¢ | $164.38 | $177.86 | +$13.48 | 54% 4590-3975 (8565) |
AL almach | Downavg 44.2¢ | $95 | $159.49 | +$64.49 | 51% 1504-1428 (2932) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 61.5¢ | $107.04 | $140.14 | +$33.1 | 51% 1495-1438 (2933) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $117.49 | $135.6 | +$18.11 | 51% 808-779 (1587) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $178.04 | $131 | -$47.04 | 51% 1975-1916 (3891) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 37.2¢ | $91.8 | $125.9 | +$50.6 | 58% 5072-3729 (8801) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR | Upavg 57.3¢ | $186.16 | — | -$186.16 | 44% 2198-2839 (5037) |
Invested
$8,757
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
448-363 (811)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
43%
298-399 (697)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$152.12
Record
45%
582-717 (1299)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
877-7 (884)
Invested
$2,088.96
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$115.4
Record
59%
1071-730 (1801)
Invested
$1,312.74
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.26
Record
98%
3999-84 (4083)
Invested
$648.79
Value
$779.4
PnL
+$130.61
Record
47%
1074-1189 (2263)
Invested
$575.2
Value
$703.25
PnL
+$245.99
Record
52%
907-834 (1741)
Invested
$570.38
Value
—
PnL
-$499.92
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Invested
$554.91
Value
$466.56
PnL
-$88.35
Record
52%
5071-4760 (9831)
Invested
$399.94
Value
$427.81
PnL
+$27.87
Record
55%
4483-3631 (8114)
Invested
$370.07
Value
—
PnL
-$370.07
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Invested
$411.33
Value
—
PnL
-$411.33
Record
44%
762-970 (1732)
Invested
$285.03
Value
$307.95
PnL
+$22.92
Record
46%
816-955 (1771)
Invested
$300.97
Value
$271.44
PnL
-$22.91
Record
33%
736-1481 (2217)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$488.6
Value
$248.54
PnL
+$8.38
Record
52%
2308-2166 (4474)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$173.19
Value
$231.72
PnL
+$58.53
Record
41%
795-1131 (1926)
Invested
$230.37
Value
$200
PnL
-$30.37
Record
52%
395-363 (758)
FairValueMachineInvested
$164.38
Value
$177.86
PnL
+$13.48
Record
54%
4590-3975 (8565)
Invested
$95
Value
$159.49
PnL
+$64.49
Record
51%
1504-1428 (2932)
Invested
$107.04
Value
$140.14
PnL
+$33.1
Record
51%
1495-1438 (2933)
Invested
$117.49
Value
$135.6
PnL
+$18.11
Record
51%
808-779 (1587)
Invested
$178.04
Value
$131
PnL
-$47.04
Record
51%
1975-1916 (3891)
Invested
$91.8
Value
$125.9
PnL
+$50.6
Record
58%
5072-3729 (8801)
G-Penis-MonsterCTRInvested
$186.16
Value
—
PnL
-$186.16
Record
44%
2198-2839 (5037)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.6K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $2.2K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $779.4
wzbbb
Down — $703.25
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $466.56