Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
58
Down 54%
1 arb excluded
$13.3K
$-22.2K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 58 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 452-367 (819) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 43% 302-406 (708) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 587-726 (1313) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 882-7 (889) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 59¢ | $2.7K | — | $-2.7K | 59% 1080-736 (1816) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $1.1K | $2.0K | +$917.67 | 51% 1980-1923 (3903) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 59.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$67.35 | 48% 1087-1196 (2283) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$10.85 | 98% 4049-84 (4133) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3603-3367 (6970) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 52.1¢ | $908.2 | $889.88 | -$2.37 | 44% 773-974 (1747) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 48.2¢ | $668.22 | $755.9 | +$87.68 | 51% 2323-2193 (4516) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 61¢ | $783.42 | — | -$752.51 | 52% 916-840 (1756) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 53.4¢ | $661.78 | — | -$515.84 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 51.2¢ | $541.29 | $499.99 | +$37.43 | 52% 5083-4768 (9851) |
AL almach | Upavg 98¢ | $490 | $500 | +$10 | 52% 1527-1435 (2962) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 66.3¢ | $697.67 | — | -$695.9 | 55% 4495-3639 (8134) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 61.9¢ | $495.49 | — | -$495.49 | 33% 745-1487 (2232) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 39.2¢ | $147.71 | $274.57 | +$134.76 | 54% 4601-3979 (8580) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 64.2¢ | $351.09 | — | -$348.39 | 46% 824-962 (1786) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 63.2¢ | $164.14 | $259.76 | +$95.61 | 51% 1039-991 (2030) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 46.3¢ | $287.66 | — | -$283.8 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 39.4¢ | $127.94 | $252.63 | +$131.45 | 41% 803-1137 (1940) |
HC HcrystallashCTR | Downavg 65.5¢ | $274.8 | — | -$255.6 | 58% 5086-3744 (8830) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Downavg 59.2¢ | $192.01 | — | -$192.01 | 48% 763-826 (1589) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $264.36 | $196.49 | +$51.94 | 62% 4256-2556 (6812) |
Invested
$8,716
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
452-367 (819)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
43%
302-406 (708)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
587-726 (1313)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
882-7 (889)
Invested
$2,681.86
Value
—
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
59%
1080-736 (1816)
Invested
$1,072.12
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$917.67
Record
51%
1980-1923 (3903)
Invested
$1,246.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$67.35
Record
48%
1087-1196 (2283)
Invested
$1,074.15
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.85
Record
98%
4049-84 (4133)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3603-3367 (6970)
Both legs:
Invested
$908.2
Value
$889.88
PnL
-$2.37
Record
44%
773-974 (1747)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$668.22
Value
$755.9
PnL
+$87.68
Record
51%
2323-2193 (4516)
Invested
$783.42
Value
—
PnL
-$752.51
Record
52%
916-840 (1756)
Invested
$661.78
Value
—
PnL
-$515.84
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Invested
$541.29
Value
$499.99
PnL
+$37.43
Record
52%
5083-4768 (9851)
Invested
$490
Value
$500
PnL
+$10
Record
52%
1527-1435 (2962)
Invested
$697.67
Value
—
PnL
-$695.9
Record
55%
4495-3639 (8134)
Invested
$495.49
Value
—
PnL
-$495.49
Record
33%
745-1487 (2232)
FairValueMachineInvested
$147.71
Value
$274.57
PnL
+$134.76
Record
54%
4601-3979 (8580)
Invested
$351.09
Value
—
PnL
-$348.39
Record
46%
824-962 (1786)
Invested
$164.14
Value
$259.76
PnL
+$95.61
Record
51%
1039-991 (2030)
Invested
$287.66
Value
—
PnL
-$283.8
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$127.94
Value
$252.63
PnL
+$131.45
Record
41%
803-1137 (1940)
Invested
$274.8
Value
—
PnL
-$255.6
Record
58%
5086-3744 (8830)
Invested
$192.01
Value
—
PnL
-$192.01
Record
48%
763-826 (1589)
Invested
$264.36
Value
$196.49
PnL
+$51.94
Record
62%
4256-2556 (6812)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $2.0K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.2K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $889.88