Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.8K

Combined PnL

$369.49

Smart Money Signal

Down

48 of 63 top traders (76%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%45 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down48 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares10,177

Combined PnL+$696.52

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares969

Combined PnL-$327.03

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.5K	+$7.58	55% 452-367 (819)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$8.5K	+$4.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.2K	—	$-4.3K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$5.83	43% 302-406 (708)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$4.9K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.5K
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$44.58	45% 587-726 (1313)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 66.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$36.75	59% 1080-736 (1816)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$1.0K	$927.6	-$112.29	48% 1087-1196 (2283)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.3¢	$670.91	$927.6	+$256.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.7¢	$368.98	—	-$368.98
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$566.33	$486.87	-$1.66	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$253.49	$486.87	+$249.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$235.41	—	-$250.82
BL blue.birds	Downavg 75¢	$445.74	$439.49	-$4.6	52% 5083-4768 (9851)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 69.3¢	$558.71	$421.53	-$135.77	44% 773-974 (1747)
AL almach	Downavg 70.4¢	$326.94	$464.61	+$137.67	52% 1527-1435 (2962)
BO bosona	Downavg 65.3¢	$302.26	$437.33	+$135.06	51% 4768-4559 (9327)
MO mo-money	Downavg 72.5¢	$378.95	$410.34	+$31.39	51% 1517-1445 (2962)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$360.86	$320.99	-$39.87	46% 824-962 (1786)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.5¢	$223.07	$320.99	+$97.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.9¢	$137.79	—	-$137.79
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 63.7¢	$285.38	$309.93	+$24.54	33% 745-1487 (2232)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 66.8¢	$270.32	$332.99	+$62.67	51% 815-787 (1602)
ST stepahead	Downavg 66.4¢	$301.52	$313.82	+$12.3	55% 4495-3639 (8134)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 75.1¢	$270.66	$310.37	+$39.7	54% 4601-3979 (8580)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$253.46	$274.14	+$20.68	51% 819-794 (1613)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.4¢	$195.8	$274.14	+$78.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.6¢	$57.66	—	-$57.66
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 64.7¢	$191.93	$230.11	+$38.18	47% 2327-2591 (4918)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 74.5¢	$193.02	$249.99	+$56.96	44% 2227-2869 (5096)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$185.18	$154.8	-$30.38	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.3¢	$114.97	$154.8	+$39.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.4¢	$70.21	—	-$70.21
ohioism	Downavg 74.6¢	$138.97	$172.67	+$34.94	47% 2226-2478 (4704)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$177.49	$165.45	-$12.04	51% 827-800 (1627)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$102.78	$165.45	+$62.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$74.72	—	-$74.72
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 85.9¢	$169.94	$159.23	-$10.71	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
OhioAI	Downavg 65.8¢	$116.29	$130.84	+$14.55	50% 799-788 (1587)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,624

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$7.58

Record

55%

452-367 (819)

Both legs:

Down$4,229.5350¢+$4.3K

Up$4,212.6850¢$-4.3K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$5.83

Record

43%

302-406 (708)

Both legs:

Down$2,457.550¢+$2.5K

Up$2,445.4350¢$-2.5K

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$44.58

Record

45%

587-726 (1313)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,015.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$36.75

Record

59%

1080-736 (1816)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,039.89

Value

$927.6

PnL

-$112.29

Record

48%

1087-1196 (2283)

Both legs:

Down$670.9172.3¢+$256.69

Up$368.9828.7¢-$368.98

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

Both legs:

Invested

$566.33

Value

$486.87

PnL

-$1.66

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Down$253.4952.1¢+$249.17

Up$235.4146.2¢-$250.82

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$445.74

Value

$439.49

PnL

-$4.6

Record

52%

5083-4768 (9851)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$558.71

Value

$421.53

PnL

-$135.77

Record

44%

773-974 (1747)

almach

Down

Invested

$326.94

Value

$464.61

PnL

+$137.67

Record

52%

1527-1435 (2962)

bosona

Down

Invested

$302.26

Value

$437.33

PnL

+$135.06

Record

51%

4768-4559 (9327)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$378.95

Value

$410.34

PnL

+$31.39

Record

51%

1517-1445 (2962)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$360.86

Value

$320.99

PnL

-$39.87

Record

46%

824-962 (1786)

Both legs:

Down$223.0769.5¢+$97.93

Up$137.7931.9¢-$137.79

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$285.38

Value

$309.93

PnL

+$24.54

Record

33%

745-1487 (2232)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$270.32

Value

$332.99

PnL

+$62.67

Record

51%

815-787 (1602)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$301.52

Value

$313.82

PnL

+$12.3

Record

55%

4495-3639 (8134)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$270.66

Value

$310.37

PnL

+$39.7

Record

54%

4601-3979 (8580)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$253.46

Value

$274.14

PnL

+$20.68

Record

51%

819-794 (1613)

Both legs:

Down$195.871.4¢+$78.34

Up$57.6619.6¢-$57.66

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$191.93

Value

$230.11

PnL

+$38.18

Record

47%

2327-2591 (4918)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$193.02

Value

$249.99

PnL

+$56.96

Record

44%

2227-2869 (5096)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$185.18

Value

$154.8

PnL

-$30.38

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

Both legs:

Down$114.9774.3¢+$39.83

Up$70.2127.4¢-$70.21

ohioism

Down

Invested

$138.97

Value

$172.67

PnL

+$34.94

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$177.49

Value

$165.45

PnL

-$12.04

Record

51%

827-800 (1627)

Both legs:

Down$102.7862.1¢+$62.68

Up$74.7243.1¢-$74.72

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$169.94

Value

$159.23

PnL

-$10.71

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$116.29

Value

$130.84

PnL

+$14.55

Record

50%

799-788 (1587)

Smart Money Signal

Down

48 of 63 top traders (76%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%45 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xce089b77...f07e03

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794714600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Down — $3.9K

+$44.58

Bonereaper

Down — $1.0K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.66

blue.birds

Down — $439.49

-$4.6

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $421.53

-$135.77

almach

Down — $464.61

+$137.67

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