Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

45 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold Up (85%) · Up at 100¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

-$97.09

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 99.5¢

+46% since entry · 45 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

45 of 53 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up45 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares17,273

Combined PnL-$30.1

Down8 traders

Total Value$990.29

Total Shares1,544

Combined PnL-$66.99

Up — 85%Down — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$20.05	43% 298-399 (697)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$99.51	45% 582-717 (1299)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.8	98% 3999-84 (4083)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$950	$884.44	-$11.66	52% 3571-3339 (6910)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 89.1¢	$799.41	$730.45	-$68.95	47% 1074-1189 (2263)
machinelearned	Upavg 93¢	$651	$654.5	+$3.5	47% 1096-1258 (2354)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 67.8¢	$625.88	$638.61	+$97.33	59% 1071-730 (1801)
AL almach	Upavg 91.6¢	$613.54	$625.99	+$12.45	51% 1504-1428 (2932)
BO bosona	Upavg 86.7¢	$478.3	$510.23	+$31.93	51% 4748-4550 (9298)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.4¢	$518.57	$498.68	-$4.56	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
ST stepahead	Upavg 85.1¢	$468.17	$481.7	+$13.53	55% 4483-3631 (8114)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 81.3¢	$330.13	$349.37	+$19.25	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
MO mo-money	Upavg 93.9¢	$306.42	$303.46	-$2.96	51% 1495-1438 (2933)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 81.7¢	$305.11	$285.2	-$13.71	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 67.7¢	$168.36	$205.6	+$37.23	54% 4590-3975 (8565)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 91.7¢	$193.74	$189.47	-$4.27	46% 732-857 (1589)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 93.5¢	$210.62	$186.81	-$23.81	51% 812-792 (1604)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 83¢	$211.1	$176.54	-$34.57	44% 762-970 (1732)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 93.2¢	$164.28	$163.21	-$1.07	51% 809-789 (1598)
pspspsps5	Upavg 95.6¢	$117.15	$118.31	+$1.16	33% 1116-2237 (3353)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 57.5¢	$66.72	$106.7	+$39.98	51% 808-779 (1587)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 85.9¢	$99.07	$98.82	-$0.25	47% 2198-2452 (4650)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 92.6¢	$93.11	$94.02	+$0.92	52% 909-838 (1747)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 93.1¢	$82.85	$88.55	+$5.7	52% 2809-2555 (5364)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$87.64	$88.5	+$0.85	51% 1975-1916 (3891)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$20.05

Record

43%

298-399 (697)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$99.51

Record

45%

582-717 (1299)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,234.94

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.8

Record

98%

3999-84 (4083)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$884.44

PnL

-$11.66

Record

52%

3571-3339 (6910)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$799.41

Value

$730.45

PnL

-$68.95

Record

47%

1074-1189 (2263)

machinelearned

Invested

$651

Value

$654.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

47%

1096-1258 (2354)

Bonereaper

Invested

$625.88

Value

$638.61

PnL

+$97.33

Record

59%

1071-730 (1801)

almach

Invested

$613.54

Value

$625.99

PnL

+$12.45

Record

51%

1504-1428 (2932)

bosona

Invested

$478.3

Value

$510.23

PnL

+$31.93

Record

51%

4748-4550 (9298)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$518.57

Value

$498.68

PnL

-$4.56

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

stepahead

Invested

$468.17

Value

$481.7

PnL

+$13.53

Record

55%

4483-3631 (8114)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$330.13

Value

$349.37

PnL

+$19.25

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

mo-money

Invested

$306.42

Value

$303.46

PnL

-$2.96

Record

51%

1495-1438 (2933)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$305.11

Value

$285.2

PnL

-$13.71

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$168.36

Value

$205.6

PnL

+$37.23

Record

54%

4590-3975 (8565)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$193.74

Value

$189.47

PnL

-$4.27

Record

46%

732-857 (1589)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$210.62

Value

$186.81

PnL

-$23.81

Record

51%

812-792 (1604)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$211.1

Value

$176.54

PnL

-$34.57

Record

44%

762-970 (1732)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$164.28

Value

$163.21

PnL

-$1.07

Record

51%

809-789 (1598)

pspspsps5

Invested

$117.15

Value

$118.31

PnL

+$1.16

Record

33%

1116-2237 (3353)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$66.72

Value

$106.7

PnL

+$39.98

Record

51%

808-779 (1587)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$99.07

Value

$98.82

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

2198-2452 (4650)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$93.11

Value

$94.02

PnL

+$0.92

Record

52%

909-838 (1747)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$82.85

Value

$88.55

PnL

+$5.7

Record

52%

2809-2555 (5364)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$87.64

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$0.85

Record

51%

1975-1916 (3891)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

45 of 53 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.