Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
49
Down 77%
$22.1K
$-4.7K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 49 top traders (78%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $8.6K | $8.4K | -$33.19 | 55% 448-363 (811) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 43% 298-399 (697) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$0.68 | 45% 582-717 (1299) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 52% 1448-1342 (2790) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$34.45 | 98% 3999-84 (4083) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.3¢ | $585.58 | $663.11 | +$104.47 | 59% 1071-730 (1801) |
BO bosona | Downavg 95¢ | $595.35 | $626.76 | +$31.41 | 51% 4748-4550 (9298) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 96¢ | $584.52 | $608.87 | +$24.35 | 47% 1096-1258 (2354) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 94.6¢ | $580.39 | $502.44 | -$77.95 | 51% 1495-1438 (2933) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $522.55 | $495.09 | +$8.19 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 93.2¢ | $322.53 | $280 | -$42.53 | 52% 2308-2166 (4474) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 85.3¢ | $296.89 | $247.49 | -$49.4 | 44% 762-970 (1732) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 86.6¢ | $353.1 | $232.34 | -$120.76 | 47% 1074-1189 (2263) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 75.6¢ | $167.18 | $221.21 | +$54.03 | 52% 907-834 (1741) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71¢ | $161.11 | $174.45 | +$13.34 | 55% 4483-3631 (8114) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 84¢ | $111.68 | $131.77 | +$20.08 | 52% 395-363 (758) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 99¢ | $130.79 | $131 | +$0.21 | 39% 1545-2411 (3956) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $115.64 | $135.42 | +$19.78 | 33% 736-1481 (2217) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 90¢ | $99 | $110 | +$11 | 52% 5071-4760 (9831) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.8¢ | $89.08 | — | -$89.08 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 87.9¢ | $69.9 | $69.99 | +$0.1 | 52% 909-838 (1747) |
GO GoodFallen<$100 | Downavg 85.6¢ | $83.36 | $59.64 | -$23.72 | 46% 816-955 (1771) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $49.46 | $63 | +$13.55 | 46% 732-857 (1589) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $45.04 | $56 | +$10.96 | 67% 3590-1785 (5375) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $53.55 | $63 | +$9.45 | 51% 808-779 (1587) |
Invested
$8,606.87
Value
$8.4K
PnL
-$33.19
Record
55%
448-363 (811)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
43%
298-399 (697)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$0.68
Record
45%
582-717 (1299)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
52%
1448-1342 (2790)
Invested
$1,554.56
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$34.45
Record
98%
3999-84 (4083)
Invested
$585.58
Value
$663.11
PnL
+$104.47
Record
59%
1071-730 (1801)
Invested
$595.35
Value
$626.76
PnL
+$31.41
Record
51%
4748-4550 (9298)
machinelearnedInvested
$584.52
Value
$608.87
PnL
+$24.35
Record
47%
1096-1258 (2354)
Invested
$580.39
Value
$502.44
PnL
-$77.95
Record
51%
1495-1438 (2933)
Invested
$522.55
Value
$495.09
PnL
+$8.19
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$322.53
Value
$280
PnL
-$42.53
Record
52%
2308-2166 (4474)
Invested
$296.89
Value
$247.49
PnL
-$49.4
Record
44%
762-970 (1732)
Invested
$353.1
Value
$232.34
PnL
-$120.76
Record
47%
1074-1189 (2263)
Invested
$167.18
Value
$221.21
PnL
+$54.03
Record
52%
907-834 (1741)
Invested
$161.11
Value
$174.45
PnL
+$13.34
Record
55%
4483-3631 (8114)
Invested
$111.68
Value
$131.77
PnL
+$20.08
Record
52%
395-363 (758)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$130.79
Value
$131
PnL
+$0.21
Record
39%
1545-2411 (3956)
Invested
$115.64
Value
$135.42
PnL
+$19.78
Record
33%
736-1481 (2217)
Invested
$99
Value
$110
PnL
+$11
Record
52%
5071-4760 (9831)
Invested
$89.08
Value
—
PnL
-$89.08
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Invested
$69.9
Value
$69.99
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
909-838 (1747)
Invested
$83.36
Value
$59.64
PnL
-$23.72
Record
46%
816-955 (1771)
Invested
$49.46
Value
$63
PnL
+$13.55
Record
46%
732-857 (1589)
Invested
$45.04
Value
$56
PnL
+$10.96
Record
67%
3590-1785 (5375)
Invested
$53.55
Value
$63
PnL
+$9.45
Record
51%
808-779 (1587)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.4K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $663.11
bosona
Down — $626.76
machinelearned
Down — $608.87
mo-money
Down — $502.44
ByteBadger92
Down — $495.09