Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$-7.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 50 top traders (74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,384

Combined PnL$-7.8K

Down37 traders

Total Value$17.6K

Total Shares17,628

Combined PnL+$465.52

Up — 26%Down — 74%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-7.8K	55% 448-363 (811)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$9.35	43% 298-399 (697)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$154.02	45% 582-717 (1299)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.35	98% 3999-84 (4083)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 88¢	$863.34	$860.56	-$2.77	47% 1074-1189 (2263)
MO mo-money	Downavg 84.2¢	$826.4	$981.75	+$155.35	51% 1495-1438 (2933)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 81.3¢	$851.84	$755.4	-$95.17	59% 1071-730 (1801)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 81.2¢	$577.13	$565.68	-$11.45	52% 5071-4760 (9831)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 79.6¢	$553.97	$538.01	-$15.95	44% 762-970 (1732)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.3¢	$532.79	$495.18	+$1.84	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
BO bosona	Downavg 83¢	$386.71	$432.07	+$45.36	51% 4748-4550 (9298)
ST stepahead	Downavg 81.8¢	$359.61	$394.07	+$34.45	55% 4483-3631 (8114)
AL almach	Downavg 83.9¢	$279.69	$333.34	+$53.65	51% 1504-1428 (2932)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 79.6¢	$258.78	$246.33	-$12.45	46% 816-955 (1771)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 80.3¢	$281.59	$228.31	-$30.33	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 88.6¢	$214.06	$192	-$22.06	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$188	$186.42	-$1.58	52% 395-363 (758)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.8¢	$132	$186.42	+$54.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 28¢	$56	—	-$56
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 87¢	$151.86	$155.65	+$3.78	46% 732-857 (1589)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 69.2¢	$126.51	$148.88	+$22.37	51% 812-792 (1604)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 79.8¢	$101.36	$119.51	+$20.3	54% 4590-3975 (8565)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 25¢	$119.44	$70.06	-$49.38	52% 907-834 (1741)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25¢	$59.79	—	-$59.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.1¢	$59.65	$70.06	+$10.41
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 71¢	$81.7	$78.46	-$3.25	47% 1096-1258 (2354)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71¢	$55.7	$78.46	+$22.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$26	—	-$26
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 75.4¢	$77.94	$86.44	+$8.5	51% 821-791 (1612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.4¢	$65.15	$86.44	+$21.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.7¢	$12.79	—	-$12.79
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$75.69	$99.99	+$24.3	33% 736-1481 (2217)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 85.8¢	$60.25	$65.25	+$5	58% 992-705 (1697)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,849

Value

—

PnL

$-7.8K

Record

55%

448-363 (811)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$9.35

Record

43%

298-399 (697)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$154.02

Record

45%

582-717 (1299)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,362.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.35

Record

98%

3999-84 (4083)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$863.34

Value

$860.56

PnL

-$2.77

Record

47%

1074-1189 (2263)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$826.4

Value

$981.75

PnL

+$155.35

Record

51%

1495-1438 (2933)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$851.84

Value

$755.4

PnL

-$95.17

Record

59%

1071-730 (1801)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$577.13

Value

$565.68

PnL

-$11.45

Record

52%

5071-4760 (9831)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$553.97

Value

$538.01

PnL

-$15.95

Record

44%

762-970 (1732)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$532.79

Value

$495.18

PnL

+$1.84

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

bosona

Down

Invested

$386.71

Value

$432.07

PnL

+$45.36

Record

51%

4748-4550 (9298)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$359.61

Value

$394.07

PnL

+$34.45

Record

55%

4483-3631 (8114)

almach

Down

Invested

$279.69

Value

$333.34

PnL

+$53.65

Record

51%

1504-1428 (2932)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$258.78

Value

$246.33

PnL

-$12.45

Record

46%

816-955 (1771)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$281.59

Value

$228.31

PnL

-$30.33

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$214.06

Value

$192

PnL

-$22.06

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188

Value

$186.42

PnL

-$1.58

Record

52%

395-363 (758)

Both legs:

Down$13270.8¢+$54.42

Up$5628¢-$56

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$151.86

Value

$155.65

PnL

+$3.78

Record

46%

732-857 (1589)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$126.51

Value

$148.88

PnL

+$22.37

Record

51%

812-792 (1604)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$101.36

Value

$119.51

PnL

+$20.3

Record

54%

4590-3975 (8565)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$119.44

Value

$70.06

PnL

-$49.38

Record

52%

907-834 (1741)

Both legs:

Up$59.7925¢-$59.79

Down$59.6585.1¢+$10.41

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$81.7

Value

$78.46

PnL

-$3.25

Record

47%

1096-1258 (2354)

Both legs:

Down$55.771¢+$22.75

Up$2626¢-$26

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$77.94

Value

$86.44

PnL

+$8.5

Record

51%

821-791 (1612)

Both legs:

Down$65.1575.4¢+$21.29

Up$12.7919.7¢-$12.79

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$75.69

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$24.3

Record

33%

736-1481 (2217)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$60.25

Value

$65.25

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

992-705 (1697)

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 50 top traders (74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7ebf6035...b6dbde

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794713100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-7.8K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$9.35

machine-earning

Down — $3.9K

+$154.02

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$14.35

CrouchPredictions

Down — $860.56

-$2.77

mo-money

Down — $981.75

+$155.35

Bonereaper

Down — $755.4

-$95.17

blue.birds

Down — $565.68

-$11.45

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $538.01

-$15.95

ByteBadger92

Down — $495.18

+$1.84

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