Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 33%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$-14.8K

Smart Money Signal

16 of 46 top traders (35%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,290

Combined PnL$-15.3K

Down30 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,087

Combined PnL+$488.53

Up — 35%Down — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-8.3K	55% 448-363 (811)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	43% 298-399 (697)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$51.09	45% 582-717 (1299)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 43.4¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.1K	59% 1071-730 (1801)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$618.91	$620.49	+$1.58	47% 1074-1189 (2263)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$254.72	$620.49	+$365.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$364.18	—	-$364.18
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 45.4¢	$605.21	—	-$598.06	52% 907-834 (1741)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.2¢	$539.93	$493.35	+$2.59	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$570.85	$527.14	-$43.7	52% 5071-4760 (9831)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.4¢	$365.83	$527.14	+$161.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$205.01	—	-$205.01
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$363.82	$283.11	-$80.71	44% 762-970 (1732)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$175.39	$283.11	+$107.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$188.43	—	-$188.43
ST stepahead	Downavg 60.7¢	$341.75	$353.36	+$11.61	55% 4483-3631 (8114)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$363.33	$354.12	-$9.21	46% 816-955 (1771)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$208.21	$354.12	+$145.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$155.11	—	-$155.11
AL almach	Downavg 78.1¢	$234.02	$274.14	+$40.12	51% 1504-1428 (2932)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 66¢	$314.31	$269.71	-$44.6	33% 736-1481 (2217)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 51.3¢	$221.62	$243.61	+$21.99	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 47.5¢	$283.02	—	-$277.52	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 63.2¢	$166.18	$204.76	+$39.11	54% 4590-3975 (8565)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 69.9¢	$140.23	$200.7	+$60.48	58% 5072-3729 (8801)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 63.9¢	$135.44	$170.52	+$35.08	51% 812-792 (1604)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$177.14	$163.65	-$13.49	51% 1495-1438 (2933)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$92.04	$163.65	+$71.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$85.1	—	-$85.1
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 60.3¢	$132.7	$220	+$87.3	47% 2305-2557 (4862)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 69.2¢	$107.05	$110.05	+$8.63	67% 3590-1785 (5375)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 38.4¢	$107.72	$79.52	-$28.21	50% 788-784 (1572)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$50.66	$79.52	+$28.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$57.06	—	-$57.06
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$86.56	$79.01	-$7.55	48% 756-818 (1574)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$44.99	$79.01	+$34.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$41.57	—	-$41.57
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$96.66	$80.65	-$16.01	51% 4748-4550 (9298)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$48.39	$80.65	+$32.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$48.27	—	-$48.27
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$87.12	$79.51	-$7.62	51% 821-791 (1612)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,875

Value

—

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

55%

448-363 (811)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

43%

298-399 (697)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$51.09

Record

45%

582-717 (1299)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$1,150.71

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

59%

1071-730 (1801)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$618.91

Value

$620.49

PnL

+$1.58

Record

47%

1074-1189 (2263)

Both legs:

Down$254.7241.1¢+$365.76

Up$364.1837.3¢-$364.18

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$605.21

Value

—

PnL

-$598.06

Record

52%

907-834 (1741)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$539.93

Value

$493.35

PnL

+$2.59

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$570.85

Value

$527.14

PnL

-$43.7

Record

52%

5071-4760 (9831)

Both legs:

Down$365.8369.4¢+$161.31

Up$205.0150.4¢-$205.01

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$363.82

Value

$283.11

PnL

-$80.71

Record

44%

762-970 (1732)

Both legs:

Down$175.3962¢+$107.72

Up$188.4337.3¢-$188.43

stepahead

Down

Invested

$341.75

Value

$353.36

PnL

+$11.61

Record

55%

4483-3631 (8114)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$363.33

Value

$354.12

PnL

-$9.21

Record

46%

816-955 (1771)

Both legs:

Down$208.2158.8¢+$145.91

Up$155.1147.5¢-$155.11

almach

Down

Invested

$234.02

Value

$274.14

PnL

+$40.12

Record

51%

1504-1428 (2932)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$314.31

Value

$269.71

PnL

-$44.6

Record

33%

736-1481 (2217)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$221.62

Value

$243.61

PnL

+$21.99

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$283.02

Value

—

PnL

-$277.52

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$166.18

Value

$204.76

PnL

+$39.11

Record

54%

4590-3975 (8565)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$140.23

Value

$200.7

PnL

+$60.48

Record

58%

5072-3729 (8801)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$135.44

Value

$170.52

PnL

+$35.08

Record

51%

812-792 (1604)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$177.14

Value

$163.65

PnL

-$13.49

Record

51%

1495-1438 (2933)

Both legs:

Down$92.0456.2¢+$71.6

Up$85.158.5¢-$85.1

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$132.7

Value

$220

PnL

+$87.3

Record

47%

2305-2557 (4862)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$107.05

Value

$110.05

PnL

+$8.63

Record

67%

3590-1785 (5375)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$107.72

Value

$79.52

PnL

-$28.21

Record

50%

788-784 (1572)

Both legs:

Down$50.6663.7¢+$28.85

Up$57.0638.4¢-$57.06

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.56

Value

$79.01

PnL

-$7.55

Record

48%

756-818 (1574)

Both legs:

Down$44.9956.9¢+$34.02

Up$41.5740.3¢-$41.57

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.66

Value

$80.65

PnL

-$16.01

Record

51%

4748-4550 (9298)

Both legs:

Down$48.3960¢+$32.26

Up$48.2754¢-$48.27

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$87.12

Value

$79.51

PnL

-$7.62

Record

51%

821-791 (1612)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 46 top traders (35%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9761e3b5...4c1368

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794712800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Down — $3.8K

Bonereaper

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $493.35

+$2.59

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$43.7

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$80.71

stepahead

Down — $353.36

+$11.61

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