Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
57
Down 33%
1 arb excluded
$9.1K
$-16.4K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 57 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.9K | 55% 448-363 (811) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 43% 298-399 (697) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 45% 582-717 (1299) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 67.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$65.09 | 59% 1071-730 (1801) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 64¢ | $804.09 | $1.0K | +$206.61 | 44% 762-970 (1732) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 68.5¢ | $818.88 | $873.05 | +$54.18 | 55% 4483-3631 (8114) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$888.04 | 52% 3571-3339 (6910) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.9¢ | $644.3 | $669.12 | +$24.82 | 52% 5071-4760 (9831) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 60.6¢ | $598.72 | $614.54 | +$15.82 | 47% 1074-1189 (2263) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 62.4¢ | $440.02 | $546.39 | +$106.36 | 52% 907-834 (1741) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.8¢ | $573.47 | $501.22 | +$7.09 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
BO bosona | Upavg 55.4¢ | $226.38 | $401.12 | +$174.74 | 51% 4748-4550 (9298) |
AL almach | Upavg 85.1¢ | $257 | $295.4 | +$38.39 | 51% 1504-1428 (2932) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 58.2¢ | $357.59 | $291.06 | +$41.28 | 52% 2308-2166 (4474) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 63.8¢ | $314.37 | $256.19 | -$58.18 | 46% 816-955 (1771) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 70.6¢ | $191.45 | $267.29 | +$75.84 | 51% 1495-1438 (2933) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $243.26 | $236.44 | -$6.82 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.5¢ | $142.94 | $236.44 | +$93.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 25¢ | $100.32 | — | -$100.32 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 66.2¢ | $194.93 | $240.45 | +$45.52 | 33% 736-1481 (2217) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 89.1¢ | $194.45 | $218.15 | +$23.69 | 28% 510-1288 (1798) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $132.07 | $143.65 | +$11.58 | 46% 732-857 (1589) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $122.36 | $126.84 | +$4.86 | 63% 4221-2527 (6748) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 42.7¢ | $197.91 | — | -$193.91 | 54% 4590-3975 (8565) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 67.3¢ | $107.05 | $106 | -$1.05 | 50% 788-784 (1572) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 46.6¢ | $85.23 | $182.73 | +$97.5 | 50% 864-867 (1731) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $64.58 | $81.5 | +$16.92 | 51% 808-779 (1587) |
Invested
$8,738
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
55%
448-363 (811)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
43%
298-399 (697)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
45%
582-717 (1299)
Invested
$1,278.15
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$65.09
Record
59%
1071-730 (1801)
Invested
$804.09
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$206.61
Record
44%
762-970 (1732)
Invested
$818.88
Value
$873.05
PnL
+$54.18
Record
55%
4483-3631 (8114)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$888.04
Record
52%
3571-3339 (6910)
Invested
$644.3
Value
$669.12
PnL
+$24.82
Record
52%
5071-4760 (9831)
Invested
$598.72
Value
$614.54
PnL
+$15.82
Record
47%
1074-1189 (2263)
Invested
$440.02
Value
$546.39
PnL
+$106.36
Record
52%
907-834 (1741)
Invested
$573.47
Value
$501.22
PnL
+$7.09
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Invested
$226.38
Value
$401.12
PnL
+$174.74
Record
51%
4748-4550 (9298)
Invested
$257
Value
$295.4
PnL
+$38.39
Record
51%
1504-1428 (2932)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$357.59
Value
$291.06
PnL
+$41.28
Record
52%
2308-2166 (4474)
Invested
$314.37
Value
$256.19
PnL
-$58.18
Record
46%
816-955 (1771)
Invested
$191.45
Value
$267.29
PnL
+$75.84
Record
51%
1495-1438 (2933)
Invested
$243.26
Value
$236.44
PnL
-$6.82
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.93
Value
$240.45
PnL
+$45.52
Record
33%
736-1481 (2217)
NIULAI4Invested
$194.45
Value
$218.15
PnL
+$23.69
Record
28%
510-1288 (1798)
Invested
$132.07
Value
$143.65
PnL
+$11.58
Record
46%
732-857 (1589)
Invested
$122.36
Value
$126.84
PnL
+$4.86
Record
63%
4221-2527 (6748)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$197.91
Value
—
PnL
-$193.91
Record
54%
4590-3975 (8565)
OhioAIInvested
$107.05
Value
$106
PnL
-$1.05
Record
50%
788-784 (1572)
Invested
$85.23
Value
$182.73
PnL
+$97.5
Record
50%
864-867 (1731)
Invested
$64.58
Value
$81.5
PnL
+$16.92
Record
51%
808-779 (1587)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.0K
stepahead
Up — $873.05
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $669.12
CrouchPredictions
Up — $614.54
wzbbb
Up — $546.39