Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$-11.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 46 top traders (61%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares13,277

Combined PnL$-11.8K

Up18 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,111

Combined PnL+$737.3

Down — 61%Up — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	43% 295-395 (690)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.4K	45% 579-713 (1292)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 42.7¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$424.13	60% 1066-725 (1791)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$999.63	$1.0K	+$39.31	52% 5063-4757 (9820)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$446.64	$1.0K	+$592.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$552.99	—	-$552.99
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$1.0K	$993.56	-$28.14	44% 757-965 (1722)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.6¢	$432.94	$993.56	+$560.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$588.76	—	-$588.76
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$830.35	$964.29	+$133.94	52% 392-358 (750)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$500.8	$964.29	+$463.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$329.55	—	-$329.55
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$921.49	—	-$901.99	47% 1068-1182 (2250)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$914.24	$338.61	-$575.62	51% 4740-4541 (9281)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.7¢	$670.11	—	-$670.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.1¢	$244.13	$338.61	+$94.48
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$497.73	$548.92	+$51.19	46% 812-949 (1761)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$219.68	$548.92	+$329.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$278.05	—	-$278.05
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 60.8¢	$562.98	$500.85	-$62.13	33% 730-1477 (2207)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 64.9¢	$636.47	—	-$635.8	55% 4474-3627 (8101)
NIULAI4	Upavg 56.2¢	$537.45	$486.43	-$51.02	28% 505-1283 (1788)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 53.1¢	$628.1	—	-$461.26	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 79.9¢	$898.87	$180.72	-$522.83	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.9¢	$630.01	—	-$649.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$74.09	$180.72	+$126.87
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 66.7¢	$1.0K	$282.17	-$440.24	51% 1492-1421 (2913)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.7¢	$395.68	—	-$482.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.2¢	$197.99	$282.17	+$42.36
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$325.24	$322.77	-$2.47	67% 3569-1770 (5339)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$183.06	$322.77	+$139.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$142.18	—	-$142.18
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 67.7¢	$369.36	$398.83	+$29.47	48% 752-813 (1565)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.7¢	$270.05	$398.83	+$128.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$99.31	—	-$99.31
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$289.24	$313.83	+$24.59	52% 901-828 (1729)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$119.75	$313.83	+$194.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$169.49	—	-$169.49
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR	Downavg 34.4¢	$290.79	—	-$290.79	46% 723-856 (1579)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 66.8¢	$289.49	—	-$279.85	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 66.9¢	$224.09	$272.88	+$48.79	51% 806-788 (1594)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 44.9¢	$220.4	$263	+$42.6	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
ohioism	Upavg 38.6¢	$167.73	$255.83	+$98	47% 2185-2435 (4620)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 65.8¢	$306.81	$200.67	-$106.15	51% 817-785 (1602)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$95.27	$200.67	+$105.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.8¢	$211.54	—	-$211.54
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 41¢	$253.53	$196.44	-$57.09	54% 4581-3974 (8555)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$124.65	$196.44	+$71.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 41¢	$128.88	—	-$128.88

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

43%

295-395 (690)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

45%

579-713 (1292)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,230.66

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$424.13

Record

60%

1066-725 (1791)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$999.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$39.31

Record

52%

5063-4757 (9820)

Both legs:

Up$446.6443¢+$592.3

Down$552.9961.8¢-$552.99

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,021.71

Value

$993.56

PnL

-$28.14

Record

44%

757-965 (1722)

Both legs:

Up$432.9443.6¢+$560.62

Down$588.7663.3¢-$588.76

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$830.35

Value

$964.29

PnL

+$133.94

Record

52%

392-358 (750)

Both legs:

Up$500.851.9¢+$463.49

Down$329.5540.4¢-$329.55

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$921.49

Value

—

PnL

-$901.99

Record

47%

1068-1182 (2250)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$914.24

Value

$338.61

PnL

-$575.62

Record

51%

4740-4541 (9281)

Both legs:

Down$670.1170.7¢-$670.11

Up$244.1372.1¢+$94.48

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$497.73

Value

$548.92

PnL

+$51.19

Record

46%

812-949 (1761)

Both legs:

Up$219.6840¢+$329.24

Down$278.0549.6¢-$278.05

ply-pm0

Invested

$562.98

Value

$500.85

PnL

-$62.13

Record

33%

730-1477 (2207)

stepaheadCTR

Down

Invested

$636.47

Value

—

PnL

-$635.8

Record

55%

4474-3627 (8101)

NIULAI4

Invested

$537.45

Value

$486.43

PnL

-$51.02

Record

28%

505-1283 (1788)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$628.1

Value

—

PnL

-$461.26

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$898.87

Value

$180.72

PnL

-$522.83

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

Both legs:

Down$630.0179.9¢-$649.7

Up$74.0941¢+$126.87

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,001.08

Value

$282.17

PnL

-$440.24

Record

51%

1492-1421 (2913)

Both legs:

Down$395.6866.7¢-$482.59

Up$197.9970.2¢+$42.36

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$325.24

Value

$322.77

PnL

-$2.47

Record

67%

3569-1770 (5339)

Both legs:

Up$183.0656.7¢+$139.71

Down$142.1836.1¢-$142.18

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$369.36

Value

$398.83

PnL

+$29.47

Record

48%

752-813 (1565)

Both legs:

Up$270.0567.7¢+$128.78

Down$99.3141.8¢-$99.31

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$289.24

Value

$313.83

PnL

+$24.59

Record

52%

901-828 (1729)

Both legs:

Up$119.7538.2¢+$194.08

Down$169.4947.2¢-$169.49

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR

Down

Invested

$290.79

Value

—

PnL

-$290.79

Record

46%

723-856 (1579)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$289.49

Value

—

PnL

-$279.85

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$224.09

Value

$272.88

PnL

+$48.79

Record

51%

806-788 (1594)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$220.4

Value

$263

PnL

+$42.6

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

ohioism

Invested

$167.73

Value

$255.83

PnL

+$98

Record

47%

2185-2435 (4620)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$306.81

Value

$200.67

PnL

-$106.15

Record

51%

817-785 (1602)

Both legs:

Up$95.2747.5¢+$105.39

Down$211.5465.8¢-$211.54

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$253.53

Value

$196.44

PnL

-$57.09

Record

54%

4581-3974 (8555)

Both legs:

Up$124.6563.5¢+$71.79

Down$128.8841¢-$128.88

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 46 top traders (61%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x184d2a8a...b0a24f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794711900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

machine-earning

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Up — $1.6K

+$424.13

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$39.31

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

bosona

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Up — $500.85

-$62.13

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