Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 82%
2 arb excluded
$21.6K
$-6.9K
Smart Money Signal
47 of 59 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $8.2K | $8.2K | +$8.21 | 52% 1439-1341 (2780) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 43% 295-395 (690) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 579-713 (1292) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 96.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$57.36 | 42% 1805-2456 (4261) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$13.9 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 58.4¢ | $913.53 | $1.1K | +$160.53 | 60% 1066-725 (1791) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $930 | -$11.25 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $465 | $930 | +$463.75 | |
BO bosona | Upavg 95.7¢ | $1.7K | $647.02 | +$180.18 | 51% 4740-4541 (9281) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 51.1¢ | $317.95 | $550.95 | +$235.83 | 47% 1068-1182 (2250) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 98¢ | $535.74 | $532 | -$3.74 | 33% 1106-2226 (3332) |
AL almach | Upavg 98.8¢ | $1.7K | $500.01 | +$132.46 | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 98.9¢ | $2.0K | $500.01 | +$227.66 | 51% 1487-1429 (2916) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 54¢ | $602.91 | $494.23 | +$1.86 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 63.8¢ | $351.52 | $365.59 | +$14.07 | 55% 4474-3627 (8101) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 54.2¢ | $260.8 | $372.21 | +$111.41 | 44% 757-965 (1722) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 73¢ | $349.85 | $346.55 | -$3.3 | 33% 730-1477 (2207) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 68.7¢ | $294.39 | $327.44 | +$34.29 | 52% 901-828 (1729) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 87.3¢ | $263.39 | $300 | +$36.61 | 46% 1090-1255 (2345) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 60.4¢ | $270.05 | $298.06 | +$28.01 | 52% 392-358 (750) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 68.9¢ | $373.24 | $262.8 | -$2.86 | 52% 5063-4757 (9820) |
 ohioism | Upavg 78.2¢ | $196.23 | $199.03 | +$2.8 | 47% 2185-2435 (4620) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 79.6¢ | $161.56 | $176.61 | +$15.05 | 67% 3569-1770 (5339) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 71.4¢ | $171.37 | $170.79 | +$1.62 | 46% 812-949 (1761) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 51.8¢ | $85.45 | $165 | +$79.55 | 48% 2261-2474 (4735) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 65¢ | $120.64 | $152.99 | +$40.08 | 41% 791-1127 (1918) |
Invested
$8,201.12
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$8.21
Record
52%
1439-1341 (2780)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
43%
295-395 (690)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
579-713 (1292)
Invested
$1,755.64
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$57.36
Record
42%
1805-2456 (4261)
Invested
$1,356.09
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.9
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$913.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$160.53
Record
60%
1066-725 (1791)
Invested
$950
Value
$930
PnL
-$11.25
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,710.95
Value
$647.02
PnL
+$180.18
Record
51%
4740-4541 (9281)
Invested
$317.95
Value
$550.95
PnL
+$235.83
Record
47%
1068-1182 (2250)
pspspsps5Invested
$535.74
Value
$532
PnL
-$3.74
Record
33%
1106-2226 (3332)
Invested
$1,705.48
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$132.46
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
Invested
$1,985.98
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$227.66
Record
51%
1487-1429 (2916)
Invested
$602.91
Value
$494.23
PnL
+$1.86
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Invested
$351.52
Value
$365.59
PnL
+$14.07
Record
55%
4474-3627 (8101)
Invested
$260.8
Value
$372.21
PnL
+$111.41
Record
44%
757-965 (1722)
Invested
$349.85
Value
$346.55
PnL
-$3.3
Record
33%
730-1477 (2207)
Invested
$294.39
Value
$327.44
PnL
+$34.29
Record
52%
901-828 (1729)
machinelearnedInvested
$263.39
Value
$300
PnL
+$36.61
Record
46%
1090-1255 (2345)
Invested
$270.05
Value
$298.06
PnL
+$28.01
Record
52%
392-358 (750)
Invested
$373.24
Value
$262.8
PnL
-$2.86
Record
52%
5063-4757 (9820)
ohioismInvested
$196.23
Value
$199.03
PnL
+$2.8
Record
47%
2185-2435 (4620)
Invested
$161.56
Value
$176.61
PnL
+$15.05
Record
67%
3569-1770 (5339)
Invested
$171.37
Value
$170.79
PnL
+$1.62
Record
46%
812-949 (1761)
Invested
$85.45
Value
$165
PnL
+$79.55
Record
48%
2261-2474 (4735)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$120.64
Value
$152.99
PnL
+$40.08
Record
41%
791-1127 (1918)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $1.8K
hoodquant
Up — $1.4K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Up — $647.02
CrouchPredictions
Up — $550.95
pspspsps5
Up — $532