Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
69
Up 77%
4 arb excluded
$21.9K
$-3.9K
Smart Money Signal
51 of 69 top traders (74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%42 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$2.42 | 43% 298-399 (697) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.8K | 45% 582-717 (1299) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 877-7 (884) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$26.29 | 52% 1448-1342 (2790) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$21.8 | 98% 3999-84 (4083) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 55.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$76.2 | 59% 1071-730 (1801) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$930.25 | 52% 3571-3339 (6910) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 64.1¢ | $619.25 | $731.11 | +$111.87 | 47% 1074-1189 (2263) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 67.9¢ | $691.92 | $720.14 | +$29.32 | 52% 5071-4760 (9831) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 57.2¢ | $518.3 | $617.99 | +$99.69 | 44% 762-970 (1732) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 59.1¢ | $507.74 | $566.25 | +$58.51 | 55% 4483-3631 (8114) |
BO bosona | Upavg 82.2¢ | $481.28 | $585.05 | +$103.77 | 51% 4748-4550 (9298) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $527.35 | $492.74 | +$12.32 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 55.1¢ | $370.5 | $536.39 | +$165.88 | 46% 816-955 (1771) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 69.9¢ | $419.89 | $404.02 | -$15.87 | 52% 395-363 (758) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.9¢ | $282.26 | $404.02 | +$121.76 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.3¢ | $137.63 | — | -$137.63 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84¢ | $339.33 | $403.95 | +$64.61 | 47% 1096-1258 (2354) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 59¢ | $347.37 | $323.12 | -$24.25 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 63.6¢ | $898.8 | $331.17 | +$226.38 | 49% 2396-2460 (4856) |
AL almach | Upavg 55.9¢ | $172.51 | $308.18 | +$135.67 | 51% 1504-1428 (2932) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 36.4¢ | $335.28 | — | -$315.48 | 52% 907-834 (1741) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 55.8¢ | $250.85 | $201.75 | +$0.7 | 54% 4590-3975 (8565) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 61.1¢ | $95.02 | $155.58 | +$60.56 | 57% 341-262 (603) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 45.4¢ | $123.45 | $100 | -$23.45 | 52% 2308-2166 (4474) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.4¢ | $73.45 | — | -$73.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $50 | $100 | +$50 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 65.3¢ | $102.55 | $125.72 | +$23.17 | 51% 808-779 (1587) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 62.4¢ | $105.99 | $129.99 | +$24 | 47% 2305-2557 (4862) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.4¢ | $81.1 | $129.99 | +$48.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26.2¢ | $24.89 | — | -$24.89 |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$2.42
Record
43%
298-399 (697)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
45%
582-717 (1299)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
877-7 (884)
Invested
$2,603.15
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$26.29
Record
52%
1448-1342 (2790)
Invested
$1,431.2
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$21.8
Record
98%
3999-84 (4083)
Invested
$1,255.95
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$76.2
Record
59%
1071-730 (1801)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$930.25
Record
52%
3571-3339 (6910)
Invested
$619.25
Value
$731.11
PnL
+$111.87
Record
47%
1074-1189 (2263)
Invested
$691.92
Value
$720.14
PnL
+$29.32
Record
52%
5071-4760 (9831)
Invested
$518.3
Value
$617.99
PnL
+$99.69
Record
44%
762-970 (1732)
Invested
$507.74
Value
$566.25
PnL
+$58.51
Record
55%
4483-3631 (8114)
Invested
$481.28
Value
$585.05
PnL
+$103.77
Record
51%
4748-4550 (9298)
Invested
$527.35
Value
$492.74
PnL
+$12.32
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Invested
$370.5
Value
$536.39
PnL
+$165.88
Record
46%
816-955 (1771)
Invested
$419.89
Value
$404.02
PnL
-$15.87
Record
52%
395-363 (758)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$339.33
Value
$403.95
PnL
+$64.61
Record
47%
1096-1258 (2354)
Invested
$347.37
Value
$323.12
PnL
-$24.25
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Invested
$898.8
Value
$331.17
PnL
+$226.38
Record
49%
2396-2460 (4856)
Invested
$172.51
Value
$308.18
PnL
+$135.67
Record
51%
1504-1428 (2932)
Invested
$335.28
Value
—
PnL
-$315.48
Record
52%
907-834 (1741)
FairValueMachineInvested
$250.85
Value
$201.75
PnL
+$0.7
Record
54%
4590-3975 (8565)
Invested
$95.02
Value
$155.58
PnL
+$60.56
Record
57%
341-262 (603)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$123.45
Value
$100
PnL
-$23.45
Record
52%
2308-2166 (4474)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.55
Value
$125.72
PnL
+$23.17
Record
51%
808-779 (1587)
Invested
$105.99
Value
$129.99
PnL
+$24
Record
47%
2305-2557 (4862)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
0x50f7
Up — $2.6K
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $731.11
blue.birds
Up — $720.14
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $617.99