Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Up 82%
2 arb excluded
$28.8K
$-4.2K
Smart Money Signal
51 of 62 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.01 | 52% 1439-1341 (2780) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 43% 295-395 (690) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$8.2 | 45% 579-713 (1292) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $3.9K | +$1.9K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 86.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$8.75 | 47% 1068-1182 (2250) |
BO bosona | Upavg 85.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$148.7 | 51% 4740-4541 (9281) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 68.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$6.63 | 60% 1066-725 (1791) |
AL almach | Upavg 84.6¢ | $974.71 | $1.1K | +$124.4 | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
0X 0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $505.48 | $1.0K | +$494.52 | 46% 16-19 (35) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $923 | -$13.57 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $461.5 | $923 | +$461.43 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 73.2¢ | $791.43 | $851.13 | +$59.7 | 52% 5063-4757 (9820) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 86.8¢ | $771.02 | $871.92 | +$100.9 | 46% 1090-1255 (2345) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 78.8¢ | $593 | $625.52 | +$32.52 | 55% 4474-3627 (8101) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 62.1¢ | $568.86 | $618.34 | +$50.68 | 44% 757-965 (1722) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $574.71 | $548.25 | -$26.46 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 85.9¢ | $641.31 | $539.31 | +$36.79 | 51% 1487-1429 (2916) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 54.3¢ | $621.88 | $496.48 | +$8.58 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 64.2¢ | $376.15 | $391.11 | +$14.96 | 46% 812-949 (1761) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $370.06 | $373.8 | +$3.74 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 76.5¢ | $388.95 | $285.09 | -$103.56 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 89.4¢ | $242.06 | $265.92 | +$23.87 | 46% 723-856 (1579) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 73.4¢ | $440.04 | $250.58 | +$44.49 | 52% 901-828 (1729) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.8¢ | $236.2 | $236.71 | +$0.51 | 50% 1618-1648 (3266) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $239.5 | $209.86 | -$29.64 | 51% 803-774 (1577) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 87.2¢ | $232.02 | $226.34 | -$5.68 | 33% 730-1477 (2207) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 68.5¢ | $186.02 | $200 | +$13.98 | 52% 392-358 (750) |
Invested
$8,999
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
52%
1439-1341 (2780)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
43%
295-395 (690)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$8.2
Record
45%
579-713 (1292)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,529.36
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$8.75
Record
47%
1068-1182 (2250)
Invested
$1,050.47
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$148.7
Record
51%
4740-4541 (9281)
Invested
$1,076.58
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$6.63
Record
60%
1066-725 (1791)
Invested
$974.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$124.4
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
Invested
$505.48
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$494.52
Record
46%
16-19 (35)
Invested
$950
Value
$923
PnL
-$13.57
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Both legs:
Invested
$791.43
Value
$851.13
PnL
+$59.7
Record
52%
5063-4757 (9820)
machinelearnedInvested
$771.02
Value
$871.92
PnL
+$100.9
Record
46%
1090-1255 (2345)
Invested
$593
Value
$625.52
PnL
+$32.52
Record
55%
4474-3627 (8101)
Invested
$568.86
Value
$618.34
PnL
+$50.68
Record
44%
757-965 (1722)
Invested
$574.71
Value
$548.25
PnL
-$26.46
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$641.31
Value
$539.31
PnL
+$36.79
Record
51%
1487-1429 (2916)
Invested
$621.88
Value
$496.48
PnL
+$8.58
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Invested
$376.15
Value
$391.11
PnL
+$14.96
Record
46%
812-949 (1761)
Invested
$370.06
Value
$373.8
PnL
+$3.74
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$388.95
Value
$285.09
PnL
-$103.56
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
Invested
$242.06
Value
$265.92
PnL
+$23.87
Record
46%
723-856 (1579)
Invested
$440.04
Value
$250.58
PnL
+$44.49
Record
52%
901-828 (1729)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$236.2
Value
$236.71
PnL
+$0.51
Record
50%
1618-1648 (3266)
Invested
$239.5
Value
$209.86
PnL
-$29.64
Record
51%
803-774 (1577)
Invested
$232.02
Value
$226.34
PnL
-$5.68
Record
33%
730-1477 (2207)
Invested
$186.02
Value
$200
PnL
+$13.98
Record
52%
392-358 (750)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $9.0K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.5K
bosona
Up — $1.2K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
almach
Up — $1.1K
0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118
Up — $1.0K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Up — $851.13