Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 78%
3 arb excluded
$34.6K
$1.7K
Smart Money Signal
46 of 59 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.7K | -$3.9 | 55% 445-362 (807) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $4.4K | — | $-4.4K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $4.4K | $8.7K | +$4.3K | |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$0 | 43% 295-395 (690) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$3.02 | 45% 579-713 (1292) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $3.8K | +$1.9K | |
BO bosona | Upavg 63.6¢ | $1.3K | $2.1K | +$767.77 | 51% 4740-4541 (9281) |
AL almach | Upavg 69.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$549.65 | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 65.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$72.1 | 55% 4474-3627 (8101) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 70.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$31.35 | 60% 1066-725 (1791) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 69.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$442.14 | 51% 1487-1429 (2916) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 77.1¢ | $820.06 | $1.0K | +$217.08 | 49% 2374-2443 (4817) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$938.5 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.3¢ | $826.01 | $849.09 | +$23.08 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 69¢ | $753.87 | $755.87 | +$2 | 44% 757-965 (1722) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 62.2¢ | $596.64 | $788.63 | +$191.99 | 52% 901-828 (1729) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 65.5¢ | $497.59 | $578.92 | +$84.14 | 46% 812-949 (1761) |
0X 0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118CTR | Downavg 55¢ | $549.93 | — | -$549.93 | 46% 16-19 (35) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $509.13 | $535.29 | +$26.16 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52¢ | $550.85 | $495.85 | +$12.88 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 74¢ | $324.18 | $378.76 | +$54.57 | 52% 5063-4757 (9820) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 77¢ | $714.73 | $376.47 | +$71.53 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 44¢ | $273.72 | $493.69 | +$219.97 | 47% 1068-1182 (2250) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 62.6¢ | $275.39 | $324.64 | +$49.26 | 52% 392-358 (750) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 56¢ | $216.73 | $329.4 | +$112.68 | 33% 730-1477 (2207) |
PA Papeasy | Upavg 64.2¢ | $133.73 | $186.6 | +$52.87 | 50% 3842-3791 (7633) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 58.2¢ | $126.09 | $158.13 | +$57.54 | 54% 4581-3974 (8555) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 53.8¢ | $87.1 | $139.14 | +$52.04 | 51% 803-785 (1588) |
Invested
$8,866
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$3.9
Record
55%
445-362 (807)
Both legs:
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
295-395 (690)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$3.02
Record
45%
579-713 (1292)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,341.84
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$767.77
Record
51%
4740-4541 (9281)
Invested
$2,016.87
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$549.65
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
Invested
$1,219.74
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$72.1
Record
55%
4474-3627 (8101)
Invested
$1,304.72
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$31.35
Record
60%
1066-725 (1791)
Invested
$1,005.27
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$442.14
Record
51%
1487-1429 (2916)
Invested
$820.06
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$217.08
Record
49%
2374-2443 (4817)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$938.5
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Invested
$826.01
Value
$849.09
PnL
+$23.08
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$753.87
Value
$755.87
PnL
+$2
Record
44%
757-965 (1722)
Invested
$596.64
Value
$788.63
PnL
+$191.99
Record
52%
901-828 (1729)
Invested
$497.59
Value
$578.92
PnL
+$84.14
Record
46%
812-949 (1761)
Invested
$549.93
Value
—
PnL
-$549.93
Record
46%
16-19 (35)
Invested
$509.13
Value
$535.29
PnL
+$26.16
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$550.85
Value
$495.85
PnL
+$12.88
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Invested
$324.18
Value
$378.76
PnL
+$54.57
Record
52%
5063-4757 (9820)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$714.73
Value
$376.47
PnL
+$71.53
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
Invested
$273.72
Value
$493.69
PnL
+$219.97
Record
47%
1068-1182 (2250)
Invested
$275.39
Value
$324.64
PnL
+$49.26
Record
52%
392-358 (750)
Invested
$216.73
Value
$329.4
PnL
+$112.68
Record
33%
730-1477 (2207)
Invested
$133.73
Value
$186.6
PnL
+$52.87
Record
50%
3842-3791 (7633)
FairValueMachineInvested
$126.09
Value
$158.13
PnL
+$57.54
Record
54%
4581-3974 (8555)
Invested
$87.1
Value
$139.14
PnL
+$52.04
Record
51%
803-785 (1588)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
ARBArbitrage — excluded
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Up — $2.1K
almach
Up — $2.0K
stepahead
Up — $1.3K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.3K
mo-money
Up — $1.4K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.0K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0