Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
55
Up 60%
4 arb excluded
$14.3K
$-20.0K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 55 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.1K | +$205.26 | 55% 445-362 (807) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 295-395 (690) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 579-713 (1292) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 50.1¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 60% 1066-725 (1791) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 68.6¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 44% 757-965 (1722) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$6.61 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $462.99 | — | -$468.39 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $859.18 | $867.86 | +$8.68 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 43.9¢ | $630.98 | — | -$630.98 | 47% 1068-1182 (2250) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 62.1¢ | $963.44 | — | -$963.44 | 46% 812-949 (1761) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 58.6¢ | $724.34 | $691.25 | -$27.89 | 52% 5063-4757 (9820) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $625.65 | $671.55 | +$45.9 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.2¢ | $162.73 | $671.55 | +$508.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69¢ | $462.92 | — | -$462.92 | |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 66.7¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.5K | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 59.2¢ | $580.94 | — | -$580.94 | 55% 4474-3627 (8101) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 35.2¢ | $365.5 | $570.22 | +$204.72 | 52% 392-358 (750) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $605.21 | $483.01 | +$15.07 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.8¢ | $221.42 | $483.01 | +$248.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.7¢ | $261.54 | — | -$233.36 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 63.9¢ | $432.83 | — | -$402.43 | 52% 901-828 (1729) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 56.4¢ | $294.51 | — | -$272.61 | 54% 4581-3974 (8555) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 68.1¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 51% 4740-4541 (9281) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 80.6¢ | $955.59 | — | -$440.25 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 39¢ | $205.39 | $352.32 | +$146.93 | 41% 791-1127 (1918) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $218.06 | $237.73 | +$19.67 | 46% 723-856 (1579) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 49¢ | $112.58 | — | -$112.58 | 46% 1090-1255 (2345) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $157.91 | $167.64 | +$9.73 | 51% 803-774 (1577) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 52¢ | $179.47 | $156.29 | -$11.66 | 33% 730-1477 (2207) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 71.1¢ | $188.3 | $144.58 | -$43.72 | 51% 806-788 (1594) |
Invested
$8,653
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$205.26
Record
55%
445-362 (807)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
295-395 (690)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
579-713 (1292)
Invested
$1,391.91
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
1066-725 (1791)
Invested
$1,224.94
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
44%
757-965 (1722)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$6.61
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Both legs:
Invested
$859.18
Value
$867.86
PnL
+$8.68
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$630.98
Value
—
PnL
-$630.98
Record
47%
1068-1182 (2250)
Invested
$963.44
Value
—
PnL
-$963.44
Record
46%
812-949 (1761)
Invested
$724.34
Value
$691.25
PnL
-$27.89
Record
52%
5063-4757 (9820)
Invested
$625.65
Value
$671.55
PnL
+$45.9
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,687.77
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
Invested
$580.94
Value
—
PnL
-$580.94
Record
55%
4474-3627 (8101)
Invested
$365.5
Value
$570.22
PnL
+$204.72
Record
52%
392-358 (750)
Invested
$605.21
Value
$483.01
PnL
+$15.07
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Both legs:
Invested
$432.83
Value
—
PnL
-$402.43
Record
52%
901-828 (1729)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$294.51
Value
—
PnL
-$272.61
Record
54%
4581-3974 (8555)
Invested
$1,604.85
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
51%
4740-4541 (9281)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$955.59
Value
—
PnL
-$440.25
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$205.39
Value
$352.32
PnL
+$146.93
Record
41%
791-1127 (1918)
Invested
$218.06
Value
$237.73
PnL
+$19.67
Record
46%
723-856 (1579)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$112.58
Value
—
PnL
-$112.58
Record
46%
1090-1255 (2345)
Invested
$157.91
Value
$167.64
PnL
+$9.73
Record
51%
803-774 (1577)
Invested
$179.47
Value
$156.29
PnL
-$11.66
Record
33%
730-1477 (2207)
Invested
$188.3
Value
$144.58
PnL
-$43.72
Record
51%
806-788 (1594)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $867.86
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $691.25