Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Signal

46 of 57 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up46 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares26,831

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,723

Combined PnL$-5.0K

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.7K	+$94.31	55% 445-362 (807)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.7K	43% 295-395 (690)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$8.84	45% 579-713 (1292)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	52% 1439-1341 (2780)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 95.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$86.7	42% 1805-2456 (4261)
MO mo-money	Upavg 66.3¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$597.85	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
BO bosona	Upavg 66.9¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$344.91	51% 4740-4541 (9281)
AL almach	Upavg 79.9¢	$660.38	$812.9	+$152.52	51% 1492-1421 (2913)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 66.2¢	$577.67	$566.85	-$10.81	44% 757-965 (1722)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 85.3¢	$817.49	$522.84	-$96.56	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 49.7¢	$532.58	$504.99	+$9.64	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$468.9	$474.04	+$5.14	98% 3966-84 (4050)
machinelearned	Upavg 73.3¢	$391.01	$533.46	+$142.44	46% 1090-1255 (2345)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 71.2¢	$373.88	$501.11	+$127.23	47% 1068-1182 (2250)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 84.9¢	$418.12	$376.61	-$41.51	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 28.8¢	$341.37	$227.02	-$114.35	60% 1066-725 (1791)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$115.83	$227.02	+$111.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.8¢	$225.54	—	-$225.54
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$232.08	$259.74	+$27.66	55% 4474-3627 (8101)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.8¢	$137.06	$259.74	+$122.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.8¢	$95.01	—	-$95.01
BL blue.birds	Upavg 71.2¢	$195.1	$236.64	+$41.55	52% 5063-4757 (9820)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 77.1¢	$165.8	$194.66	+$28.85	33% 730-1477 (2207)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 63.9¢	$214.96	$186.76	-$27.65	46% 812-949 (1761)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 47.7¢	$130.42	$176.22	+$45.8	52% 392-358 (750)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 38.4¢	$116.72	—	-$116.72	51% 1968-1903 (3871)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 65¢	$109.11	$134.32	+$25.21	51% 803-785 (1588)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 95.3¢	$100.02	$105	+$4.98	52% 2790-2541 (5331)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 46.5¢	$74.4	$160	+$85.6	57% 334-257 (591)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,820

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$94.31

Record

55%

445-362 (807)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

43%

295-395 (690)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$8.84

Record

45%

579-713 (1292)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

52%

1439-1341 (2780)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$1,731.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$86.7

Record

42%

1805-2456 (4261)

mo-money

Invested

$1,178.74

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$597.85

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

bosona

Invested

$1,090.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$344.91

Record

51%

4740-4541 (9281)

almach

Invested

$660.38

Value

$812.9

PnL

+$152.52

Record

51%

1492-1421 (2913)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$577.67

Value

$566.85

PnL

-$10.81

Record

44%

757-965 (1722)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$817.49

Value

$522.84

PnL

-$96.56

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$532.58

Value

$504.99

PnL

+$9.64

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

hoodquant

Invested

$468.9

Value

$474.04

PnL

+$5.14

Record

98%

3966-84 (4050)

machinelearned

Invested

$391.01

Value

$533.46

PnL

+$142.44

Record

46%

1090-1255 (2345)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$373.88

Value

$501.11

PnL

+$127.23

Record

47%

1068-1182 (2250)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$418.12

Value

$376.61

PnL

-$41.51

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$341.37

Value

$227.02

PnL

-$114.35

Record

60%

1066-725 (1791)

Both legs:

Up$115.8351¢+$111.19

Down$225.5428.8¢-$225.54

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$232.08

Value

$259.74

PnL

+$27.66

Record

55%

4474-3627 (8101)

Both legs:

Up$137.0652.8¢+$122.67

Down$95.0136.8¢-$95.01

blue.birds

Invested

$195.1

Value

$236.64

PnL

+$41.55

Record

52%

5063-4757 (9820)

ply-pm0

Invested

$165.8

Value

$194.66

PnL

+$28.85

Record

33%

730-1477 (2207)

GoodFallen

Invested

$214.96

Value

$186.76

PnL

-$27.65

Record

46%

812-949 (1761)

gansinimen

Invested

$130.42

Value

$176.22

PnL

+$45.8

Record

52%

392-358 (750)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$116.72

Value

—

PnL

-$116.72

Record

51%

1968-1903 (3871)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$109.11

Value

$134.32

PnL

+$25.21

Record

51%

803-785 (1588)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$100.02

Value

$105

PnL

+$4.98

Record

52%

2790-2541 (5331)

Alpharo28

Invested

$74.4

Value

$160

PnL

+$85.6

Record

57%

334-257 (591)

Smart Money Signal

46 of 57 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7dc84e87...4aec35

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794708900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.7K

+$94.31

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.7K

machine-earning

Up — $3.8K

-$8.84

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$3.01

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $1.8K

+$86.7

mo-money

Up — $1.8K

+$597.85

bosona

Up — $1.4K

+$344.91

almach

Up — $812.9

+$152.52

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $566.85

-$10.81

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $522.84

-$96.56

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