Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 76%
2 arb excluded
$19.7K
$-15.2K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 58 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.2K | 55% 445-362 (807) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 43% 295-395 (690) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 869-7 (876) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 579-713 (1292) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 43.7¢ | $853.2 | $2.0K | +$1.1K | 49% 2374-2443 (4817) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$18.67 | 51% 1968-1903 (3871) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 63¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$86.3 | 47% 1068-1182 (2250) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$11.55 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $940 | -$4.7 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $470 | $940 | +$470.3 | |
MO mo-money | Upavg 72.4¢ | $696.37 | $856.49 | +$160.12 | 51% 1487-1429 (2916) |
BO bosona | Upavg 89.5¢ | $1.9K | $850.89 | -$151.62 | 51% 4740-4541 (9281) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.5¢ | $758.43 | $702.23 | -$56.2 | 52% 5063-4757 (9820) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $688.05 | $680.09 | -$7.96 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
AL almach | Upavg 81.5¢ | $716.02 | $690.64 | +$105.68 | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 45¢ | $652.9 | $639.02 | +$341.09 | 60% 1066-725 (1791) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 54.2¢ | $479.28 | $517.55 | +$38.27 | 55% 4474-3627 (8101) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $578.6 | $496.96 | +$0.5 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 54¢ | $558.59 | $463.96 | +$22.66 | 44% 757-965 (1722) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 65.2¢ | $288.93 | $442.1 | +$153.17 | 52% 901-828 (1729) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 59.8¢ | $341.74 | $325.49 | +$19.75 | 46% 812-949 (1761) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $236.37 | $245.01 | +$8.64 | 33% 730-1477 (2207) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 28.6¢ | $201.55 | — | -$201.55 | 46% 1090-1255 (2345) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 63.6¢ | $145.83 | $180.01 | +$35.83 | 41% 791-1127 (1918) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 82.5¢ | $582.12 | $173.07 | -$75.39 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Downavg 33.5¢ | $227.63 | — | -$227.63 | 46% 723-856 (1579) |
Invested
$8,748
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
55%
445-362 (807)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
43%
295-395 (690)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
869-7 (876)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
579-713 (1292)
Invested
$853.2
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
49%
2374-2443 (4817)
Invested
$1,848.09
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$18.67
Record
51%
1968-1903 (3871)
Invested
$1,369.73
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$86.3
Record
47%
1068-1182 (2250)
Invested
$1,143.2
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$11.55
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$950
Value
$940
PnL
-$4.7
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Both legs:
Invested
$696.37
Value
$856.49
PnL
+$160.12
Record
51%
1487-1429 (2916)
Invested
$1,930.97
Value
$850.89
PnL
-$151.62
Record
51%
4740-4541 (9281)
Invested
$758.43
Value
$702.23
PnL
-$56.2
Record
52%
5063-4757 (9820)
Invested
$688.05
Value
$680.09
PnL
-$7.96
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$716.02
Value
$690.64
PnL
+$105.68
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
Invested
$652.9
Value
$639.02
PnL
+$341.09
Record
60%
1066-725 (1791)
Invested
$479.28
Value
$517.55
PnL
+$38.27
Record
55%
4474-3627 (8101)
Invested
$578.6
Value
$496.96
PnL
+$0.5
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Invested
$558.59
Value
$463.96
PnL
+$22.66
Record
44%
757-965 (1722)
Invested
$288.93
Value
$442.1
PnL
+$153.17
Record
52%
901-828 (1729)
Invested
$341.74
Value
$325.49
PnL
+$19.75
Record
46%
812-949 (1761)
Invested
$236.37
Value
$245.01
PnL
+$8.64
Record
33%
730-1477 (2207)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$201.55
Value
—
PnL
-$201.55
Record
46%
1090-1255 (2345)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$145.83
Value
$180.01
PnL
+$35.83
Record
41%
791-1127 (1918)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$582.12
Value
$173.07
PnL
-$75.39
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
Invested
$227.63
Value
—
PnL
-$227.63
Record
46%
723-856 (1579)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $2.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $1.9K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Up — $856.49