Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
52
Up 85%
7 arb excluded
$25.5K
$-8.7K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 52 top traders (85%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.3K | 55% 445-362 (807) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$33.57 | 43% 295-395 (690) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$32.59 | 99% 869-7 (876) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.3K | -$240.44 | 45% 579-713 (1292) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 74.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$208.44 | 47% 1068-1182 (2250) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 75.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$289.74 | 51% 1487-1429 (2916) |
BO bosona | Upavg 74.9¢ | $916.98 | $1.2K | +$306.71 | 51% 4740-4541 (9281) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 60.2¢ | $926.06 | $979.8 | +$53.74 | 44% 757-965 (1722) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$1.8 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $470 | — | -$473.2 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 33.7¢ | $976.42 | — | -$969.29 | 60% 1066-725 (1791) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 64.1¢ | $764.82 | $765.9 | +$1.08 | 52% 392-358 (750) |
AL almach | Upavg 79.5¢ | $1.3K | $918.73 | +$93.64 | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 66.4¢ | $676.6 | $666.09 | +$36.48 | 52% 5063-4757 (9820) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 57¢ | $367.4 | $644.39 | +$276.99 | 49% 2374-2443 (4817) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $666.19 | $494.76 | +$15.47 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 63¢ | $535.53 | $489.64 | -$45.89 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 58.1¢ | $507.48 | $457.11 | -$50.36 | 46% 812-949 (1761) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.1¢ | $265.5 | $457.11 | +$191.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.8¢ | $241.98 | — | -$241.98 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 72.1¢ | $473.33 | $436.37 | -$36.96 | 33% 730-1477 (2207) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 60.9¢ | $436.32 | $426.28 | -$10.03 | 55% 4474-3627 (8101) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 71.4¢ | $298.81 | $317.12 | +$18.32 | 54% 4581-3974 (8555) |
 ohioism | Upavg 56.9¢ | $173.98 | $241.18 | +$69.6 | 47% 2185-2435 (4620) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 86.3¢ | $214.82 | $227.25 | +$12.42 | 67% 3569-1770 (5339) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $199.98 | $202 | +$2.02 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 56.4¢ | $162.42 | $149.61 | -$12.81 | 51% 817-785 (1602) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 66.3¢ | $160.46 | $144.5 | -$15.96 | 48% 752-813 (1565) |
Invested
$8,611.8
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
55%
445-362 (807)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$33.57
Record
43%
295-395 (690)
Invested
$3,226.37
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.59
Record
99%
869-7 (876)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$240.44
Record
45%
579-713 (1292)
Invested
$1,513.04
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$208.44
Record
47%
1068-1182 (2250)
Invested
$1,130.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$289.74
Record
51%
1487-1429 (2916)
Invested
$916.98
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$306.71
Record
51%
4740-4541 (9281)
Invested
$926.06
Value
$979.8
PnL
+$53.74
Record
44%
757-965 (1722)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$1.8
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Both legs:
Invested
$976.42
Value
—
PnL
-$969.29
Record
60%
1066-725 (1791)
Invested
$764.82
Value
$765.9
PnL
+$1.08
Record
52%
392-358 (750)
Invested
$1,328.92
Value
$918.73
PnL
+$93.64
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
Invested
$676.6
Value
$666.09
PnL
+$36.48
Record
52%
5063-4757 (9820)
Invested
$367.4
Value
$644.39
PnL
+$276.99
Record
49%
2374-2443 (4817)
Invested
$666.19
Value
$494.76
PnL
+$15.47
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Invested
$535.53
Value
$489.64
PnL
-$45.89
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$507.48
Value
$457.11
PnL
-$50.36
Record
46%
812-949 (1761)
Both legs:
Invested
$473.33
Value
$436.37
PnL
-$36.96
Record
33%
730-1477 (2207)
Invested
$436.32
Value
$426.28
PnL
-$10.03
Record
55%
4474-3627 (8101)
FairValueMachineInvested
$298.81
Value
$317.12
PnL
+$18.32
Record
54%
4581-3974 (8555)
ohioismInvested
$173.98
Value
$241.18
PnL
+$69.6
Record
47%
2185-2435 (4620)
Invested
$214.82
Value
$227.25
PnL
+$12.42
Record
67%
3569-1770 (5339)
Invested
$199.98
Value
$202
PnL
+$2.02
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$162.42
Value
$149.61
PnL
-$12.81
Record
51%
817-785 (1602)
Invested
$160.46
Value
$144.5
PnL
-$15.96
Record
48%
752-813 (1565)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
THG.
Up — $3.3K
machine-earning
Up — $3.3K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
mo-money
Up — $1.4K
bosona
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $979.8
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0