Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 75%
5 arb excluded
$27.2K
$-7.3K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 55 top traders (73%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.3K | 55% 445-362 (807) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$17 | 43% 295-395 (690) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$155.78 | 45% 579-713 (1292) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$22.1 | 52% 1439-1341 (2780) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$15.42 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 56.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$103.71 | 60% 1066-725 (1791) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 52.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$11.36 | 49% 2374-2443 (4817) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$53.3 | 70% 1672-705 (2377) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$9.1 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $466.48 | — | -$465.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
BO bosona | Upavg 57.2¢ | $728.04 | $1.2K | +$422.62 | 51% 4740-4541 (9281) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 52.1¢ | $796.89 | $794.57 | +$26.47 | 52% 5063-4757 (9820) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 51.8¢ | $575.28 | $752.14 | +$178.23 | 44% 757-965 (1722) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 59.9¢ | $732.99 | $749.7 | +$16.71 | 47% 1068-1182 (2250) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 52.5¢ | $488.14 | $597.86 | +$109.71 | 46% 812-949 (1761) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $524.18 | $525.04 | +$0.86 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $639.74 | $502.71 | +$2.17 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
AL almach | Upavg 58¢ | $367.92 | $587.82 | +$247.14 | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 63.4¢ | $359.27 | $360.22 | +$5.58 | 54% 4581-3974 (8555) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 55.5¢ | $273.93 | $359.1 | +$85.17 | 51% 1487-1429 (2916) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 60.1¢ | $266.45 | $304.87 | +$38.42 | 55% 4474-3627 (8101) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 70.7¢ | $239.7 | $240.26 | +$7.38 | 33% 730-1477 (2207) |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 99¢ | $259.97 | $262.6 | +$2.63 | 33% 1106-2226 (3332) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 46.5¢ | $267.08 | — | -$251.18 | 52% 901-828 (1729) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 45.3¢ | $199 | $280 | +$81 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.3¢ | $126.8 | $280 | +$153.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.8¢ | $72.2 | — | -$72.2 | |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 59.2¢ | $185.71 | $210.4 | +$24.68 | 52% 392-358 (750) |
Invested
$8,652
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
55%
445-362 (807)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$17
Record
43%
295-395 (690)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$155.78
Record
45%
579-713 (1292)
Invested
$2,985.91
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$22.1
Record
52%
1439-1341 (2780)
Invested
$1,479.57
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$15.42
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$1,257.99
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$103.71
Record
60%
1066-725 (1791)
Invested
$1,210.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$11.36
Record
49%
2374-2443 (4817)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,172.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$53.3
Record
70%
1672-705 (2377)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$9.1
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Both legs:
Invested
$728.04
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$422.62
Record
51%
4740-4541 (9281)
Invested
$796.89
Value
$794.57
PnL
+$26.47
Record
52%
5063-4757 (9820)
Invested
$575.28
Value
$752.14
PnL
+$178.23
Record
44%
757-965 (1722)
Invested
$732.99
Value
$749.7
PnL
+$16.71
Record
47%
1068-1182 (2250)
Invested
$488.14
Value
$597.86
PnL
+$109.71
Record
46%
812-949 (1761)
Invested
$524.18
Value
$525.04
PnL
+$0.86
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$639.74
Value
$502.71
PnL
+$2.17
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Invested
$367.92
Value
$587.82
PnL
+$247.14
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
FairValueMachineInvested
$359.27
Value
$360.22
PnL
+$5.58
Record
54%
4581-3974 (8555)
Invested
$273.93
Value
$359.1
PnL
+$85.17
Record
51%
1487-1429 (2916)
Invested
$266.45
Value
$304.87
PnL
+$38.42
Record
55%
4474-3627 (8101)
Invested
$239.7
Value
$240.26
PnL
+$7.38
Record
33%
730-1477 (2207)
pspspsps5Invested
$259.97
Value
$262.6
PnL
+$2.63
Record
33%
1106-2226 (3332)
Invested
$267.08
Value
—
PnL
-$251.18
Record
52%
901-828 (1729)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$199
Value
$280
PnL
+$81
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
Both legs:
Invested
$185.71
Value
$210.4
PnL
+$24.68
Record
52%
392-358 (750)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
Up — $3.9K
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.3K
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.2K
BoneOhio
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
Up — $1.2K