Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

24 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.9K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Signal

27 of 37 top traders (73%)24 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares11,290

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,974

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$7.54	43% 295-395 (690)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$4.9K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.5K
TH THG.	Upavg 98.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$37.05	99% 869-7 (876)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$77.23	45% 579-713 (1292)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.8K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.3K	+$1.7K
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 57.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$81.86	60% 1066-725 (1791)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.4¢	$830.61	$1.4K	+$615.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$533.73	—	-$533.73
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 29.3¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	+$1.4K	49% 2374-2443 (4817)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$871.59	$963.71	+$92.12	52% 5063-4757 (9820)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.9¢	$548.74	$963.71	+$414.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.8¢	$322.84	—	-$322.84
NIULAI4	Upavg 55.1¢	$443.92	$806.15	+$362.23	28% 505-1283 (1788)
BO bosona	Upavg 76.8¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$133.92	51% 4740-4541 (9281)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 76.9¢	$994.11	$779.37	-$119.74	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.9¢	$599.5	$779.37	+$45.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$5	—	-$165
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 54¢	$606.65	$663.41	+$80.76	44% 757-965 (1722)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$505.69	$599.97	+$94.28	52% 392-358 (750)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$224.02	$599.97	+$375.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$281.67	—	-$281.67
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$530.91	$540.47	+$9.57	46% 812-949 (1761)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.1¢	$319.48	$540.47	+$220.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$211.42	—	-$211.42
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 68.5¢	$493.83	$539.67	+$55.04	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$609.03	$532.4	-$76.63	55% 4474-3627 (8101)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.9¢	$372.31	$532.4	+$160.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.8¢	$236.73	—	-$236.73
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 60.7¢	$523.39	$525.73	+$32.67	47% 1068-1182 (2250)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$695.49	$479.92	+$14.3	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$215.96	—	-$235.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$264.92	$479.92	+$249.5
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69.2¢	$423.8	$440.19	+$16.39	33% 730-1477 (2207)
AL almach	Upavg 75.2¢	$1.3K	$689.91	-$158.7	51% 1492-1421 (2913)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 49.3¢	$363.1	$385.48	+$22.38	54% 4581-3974 (8555)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$189.87	$385.48	+$195.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$173.24	—	-$173.24
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$320.79	$376.52	+$55.73	44% 2183-2822 (5005)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$222.28	$376.52	+$154.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.8¢	$98.51	—	-$98.51
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 46.3¢	$199.46	$314.76	+$161.54	63% 4195-2511 (6706)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 74.1¢	$326.72	$357.03	+$81.7	55% 445-362 (807)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.1¢	$264.61	$357.03	+$95.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 17¢	$27.2	—	-$13.6
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 64.9¢	$296.98	$279.45	-$16.34	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$243.32	$323.85	+$80.53	48% 2261-2474 (4735)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$171.59	$323.85	+$152.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$71.73	—	-$71.73
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 57.9¢	$233.34	$249.05	+$15.71	41% 791-1127 (1918)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$116.27	$249.05	+$132.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.9¢	$117.07	—	-$117.07

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$7.54

Record

43%

295-395 (690)

Both legs:

Up$2,45550¢+$2.5K

Down$2,384.450¢$-2.5K

THG.

Invested

$3,462.95

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$37.05

Record

99%

869-7 (876)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$77.23

Record

45%

579-713 (1292)

Both legs:

Down$1,495.2950¢$-1.8K

Up$1,673.7750¢+$1.7K

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$1,364.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$81.86

Record

60%

1066-725 (1791)

Both legs:

Up$830.6157.4¢+$615.58

Down$533.7334.1¢-$533.73

uninformedfloww

Invested

$1,617.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

2374-2443 (4817)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$871.59

Value

$963.71

PnL

+$92.12

Record

52%

5063-4757 (9820)

Both legs:

Up$548.7456.9¢+$414.97

Down$322.8438.8¢-$322.84

NIULAI4

Invested

$443.92

Value

$806.15

PnL

+$362.23

Record

28%

505-1283 (1788)

bosona

Invested

$1,323.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$133.92

Record

51%

4740-4541 (9281)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$994.11

Value

$779.37

PnL

-$119.74

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

Both legs:

Up$599.576.9¢+$45.26

Down$51¢-$165

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$606.65

Value

$663.41

PnL

+$80.76

Record

44%

757-965 (1722)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$505.69

Value

$599.97

PnL

+$94.28

Record

52%

392-358 (750)

Both legs:

Up$224.0237.3¢+$375.95

Down$281.6744.1¢-$281.67

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$530.91

Value

$540.47

PnL

+$9.57

Record

46%

812-949 (1761)

Both legs:

Up$319.4859.1¢+$220.99

Down$211.4238.4¢-$211.42

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$493.83

Value

$539.67

PnL

+$55.04

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$609.03

Value

$532.4

PnL

-$76.63

Record

55%

4474-3627 (8101)

Both legs:

Up$372.3169.9¢+$160.1

Down$236.7343.8¢-$236.73

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$523.39

Value

$525.73

PnL

+$32.67

Record

47%

1068-1182 (2250)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$695.49

Value

$479.92

PnL

+$14.3

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

Both legs:

Down$215.9644¢-$235.21

Up$264.9255.2¢+$249.5

ply-pm0

Invested

$423.8

Value

$440.19

PnL

+$16.39

Record

33%

730-1477 (2207)

almach

Invested

$1,346.29

Value

$689.91

PnL

-$158.7

Record

51%

1492-1421 (2913)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$363.1

Value

$385.48

PnL

+$22.38

Record

54%

4581-3974 (8555)

Both legs:

Up$189.8749.3¢+$195.62

Down$173.2446.2¢-$173.24

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$320.79

Value

$376.52

PnL

+$55.73

Record

44%

2183-2822 (5005)

Both legs:

Up$222.2859¢+$154.24

Down$98.5140.8¢-$98.51

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$199.46

Value

$314.76

PnL

+$161.54

Record

63%

4195-2511 (6706)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$326.72

Value

$357.03

PnL

+$81.7

Record

55%

445-362 (807)

Both legs:

Up$264.6174.1¢+$95.3

Down$27.217¢-$13.6

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$296.98

Value

$279.45

PnL

-$16.34

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$243.32

Value

$323.85

PnL

+$80.53

Record

48%

2261-2474 (4735)

Both legs:

Up$171.5953¢+$152.27

Down$71.7341.4¢-$71.73

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$233.34

Value

$249.05

PnL

+$15.71

Record

41%

791-1127 (1918)

Both legs:

Up$116.2746.7¢+$132.78

Down$117.0757.9¢-$117.07

Smart Money Signal

27 of 37 top traders (73%)24 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6d143aae...19e2c2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794707400

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.54

THG.

Up — $3.5K

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.1K

+$1.4K

blue.birds

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$92.12

NIULAI4

Up — $806.15

+$362.23

bosona

Up — $1.5K

+$133.92

mo-money

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$119.74

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $663.41

+$80.76

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