Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

23 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Signal

27 of 39 top traders (69%)23 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,755

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,087

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	-$22.44	43% 295-395 (690)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.4K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.3K	$4.6K	+$2.4K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	+$47.27	45% 579-713 (1292)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.7K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.8K
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$25.96	99% 869-7 (876)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 52.4¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$244.61	60% 1066-725 (1791)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$904.47	$1.7K	+$821.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.1¢	$576.71	—	-$576.71
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 70.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$59.32	47% 1068-1182 (2250)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$394.27	—	-$394.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.7¢	$807.37	$1.1K	+$334.95
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 70.4¢	$3.0K	—	$-3.0K	49% 2374-2443 (4817)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$9.54	52% 3555-3314 (6869)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$456.75	—	-$465.46
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$848.2	$1.0K	+$199.51	44% 757-965 (1722)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$575.16	$1.0K	+$472.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$273.04	—	-$273.04
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$883.83	$869.05	-$14.79	52% 5063-4757 (9820)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$580.88	$869.05	+$288.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.5¢	$302.95	—	-$302.95
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$807.31	$844.08	+$36.77	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$472.53	$844.08	+$371.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$334.78	—	-$334.78
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 47.4¢	$694.32	$778.2	+$83.88	55% 4474-3627 (8101)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.4¢	$368.69	$778.2	+$409.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$325.64	—	-$325.64
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$689.04	$674.88	-$14.16	52% 392-358 (750)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.7¢	$342.15	—	-$342.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$346.89	$674.88	+$327.99
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 66.3¢	$727.58	$711.45	-$16.13	46% 812-949 (1761)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.3¢	$471.61	$711.45	+$239.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.3¢	$255.97	—	-$255.97
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 86¢	$705.89	$543.7	-$3.29	33% 730-1477 (2207)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.2¢	$99.25	—	-$100.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 86¢	$467.64	$543.7	+$97.17
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$602.84	$586.43	-$16.41	54% 4581-3974 (8555)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$433.24	$586.43	+$153.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.1¢	$169.6	—	-$169.6
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 33.6¢	$440	$346.08	-$93.92	52% 901-828 (1729)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.6¢	$222.82	—	-$222.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$217.18	$346.08	+$128.89
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.6¢	$632.68	$487.3	+$10.75	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$590.95	$460	+$35.91	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$298.8	$460	+$144.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$115.11	—	-$108.22
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$317.79	$321	+$3.21	98% 3966-84 (4050)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 53¢	$294.46	—	-$294.46	51% 4740-4541 (9281)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$890.86	$431.51	+$39.97	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.8¢	$374.59	$431.51	+$107.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 15¢	$17.86	—	-$67.23
machinelearned	Upavg 29.4¢	$158.59	$539.98	+$381.39	46% 1090-1255 (2345)
LI Little-big	Upavg 36.2¢	$90.35	$249.85	+$159.5	51% 1013-972 (1985)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 64¢	$307.46	$473.11	+$165.65	51% 803-774 (1577)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 30.5¢	$135.33	$224.96	+$89.63	47% 2283-2545 (4828)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.6¢	$66.54	$224.96	+$158.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.5¢	$68.79	—	-$68.79

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$22.44

Record

43%

295-395 (690)

Both legs:

Down$2,45550¢$-2.4K

Up$2,280.8350¢+$2.4K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$47.27

Record

45%

579-713 (1292)

Both legs:

Down$1,780.850¢$-1.7K

Up$1,695.2250¢+$1.8K

THG.

Invested

$2,569.89

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$25.96

Record

99%

869-7 (876)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$1,481.19

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$244.61

Record

60%

1066-725 (1791)

Both legs:

Up$904.4752.4¢+$821.32

Down$576.7133.1¢-$576.71

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,201.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$59.32

Record

47%

1068-1182 (2250)

Both legs:

Down$394.2727¢-$394.27

Up$807.3770.7¢+$334.95

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$3,026.38

Value

—

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

49%

2374-2443 (4817)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$9.54

Record

52%

3555-3314 (6869)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$475

Down$456.7550¢-$465.46

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$848.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$199.51

Record

44%

757-965 (1722)

Both legs:

Up$575.1654.9¢+$472.54

Down$273.0438.4¢-$273.04

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$883.83

Value

$869.05

PnL

-$14.79

Record

52%

5063-4757 (9820)

Both legs:

Up$580.8866.8¢+$288.17

Down$302.9534.5¢-$302.95

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$807.31

Value

$844.08

PnL

+$36.77

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

Both legs:

Up$472.5356¢+$371.55

Down$334.7839.4¢-$334.78

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$694.32

Value

$778.2

PnL

+$83.88

Record

55%

4474-3627 (8101)

Both legs:

Up$368.6947.4¢+$409.52

Down$325.6443.1¢-$325.64

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$689.04

Value

$674.88

PnL

-$14.16

Record

52%

392-358 (750)

Both legs:

Down$342.1543.7¢-$342.15

Up$346.8951.4¢+$327.99

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$727.58

Value

$711.45

PnL

-$16.13

Record

46%

812-949 (1761)

Both legs:

Up$471.6166.3¢+$239.84

Down$255.9738.3¢-$255.97

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$705.89

Value

$543.7

PnL

-$3.29

Record

33%

730-1477 (2207)

Both legs:

Down$99.2513.2¢-$100.46

Up$467.6486¢+$97.17

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$602.84

Value

$586.43

PnL

-$16.41

Record

54%

4581-3974 (8555)

Both legs:

Up$433.2473.9¢+$153.19

Down$169.632.1¢-$169.6

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$440

Value

$346.08

PnL

-$93.92

Record

52%

901-828 (1729)

Both legs:

Down$222.8233.6¢-$222.82

Up$217.1862.8¢+$128.89

ByteBadger92

Invested

$632.68

Value

$487.3

PnL

+$10.75

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$590.95

Value

$460

PnL

+$35.91

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

Both legs:

Up$298.865¢+$144.13

Down$115.1145.7¢-$108.22

hoodquant

Invested

$317.79

Value

$321

PnL

+$3.21

Record

98%

3966-84 (4050)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$294.46

Value

—

PnL

-$294.46

Record

51%

4740-4541 (9281)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$890.86

Value

$431.51

PnL

+$39.97

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

Both legs:

Up$374.5986.8¢+$107.2

Down$17.8615¢-$67.23

machinelearned

Invested

$158.59

Value

$539.98

PnL

+$381.39

Record

46%

1090-1255 (2345)

Little-big

Invested

$90.35

Value

$249.85

PnL

+$159.5

Record

51%

1013-972 (1985)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$307.46

Value

$473.11

PnL

+$165.65

Record

51%

803-774 (1577)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$135.33

Value

$224.96

PnL

+$89.63

Record

47%

2283-2545 (4828)

Both legs:

Up$66.5429.6¢+$158.42

Down$68.7930.5¢-$68.79

Smart Money Signal

27 of 39 top traders (69%)23 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x3198cff9...be41a4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794707100

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Up — $2.6K

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$36.77

Trade on Polymarket