Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

30 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 46 top traders (48%)30 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,894

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Down22 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares6,893

Combined PnL+$601.57

Up — 52%Down — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$5.5	43% 295-395 (690)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$4.9K	+$2.5K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$59.31	45% 579-713 (1292)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.8K
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$12.51	60% 1066-725 (1791)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.5¢	$820.7	—	-$820.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.3¢	$851.58	$1.7K	+$808.19
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$97.31	47% 1068-1182 (2250)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$633.29	—	-$633.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.2¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$535.98
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 38.2¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	44% 757-965 (1722)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$4.33	52% 392-358 (750)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.3¢	$537.72	—	-$537.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$535.86	$1.1K	+$542.05
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 869-7 (876)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$888.2	$852.02	-$36.18	46% 812-949 (1761)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$340.97	—	-$340.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.2¢	$547.23	$852.02	+$304.79
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$864.15	$809.62	-$48.3	52% 5063-4757 (9820)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.3¢	$331.64	—	-$331.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$528.27	$809.62	+$283.35
SU suntoriCTR	Upavg 35.2¢	$356.96	—	-$355.04	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$622.37	$687.23	+$64.86	33% 730-1477 (2207)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.7¢	$219.98	—	-$219.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$402.39	$687.23	+$284.83
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$708.5	$687.56	-$20.94	55% 4474-3627 (8101)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$248.78	—	-$248.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$459.73	$687.56	+$227.83
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$481.37	$591.92	+$110.55	52% 901-828 (1729)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.8¢	$201.81	—	-$201.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.2¢	$279.56	$591.92	+$312.36
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$505.63	$462.9	-$42.73	54% 4581-3974 (8555)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.9¢	$206.65	—	-$206.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$298.97	$462.9	+$163.92
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$650.56	$492.29	+$6.02	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.4¢	$229.86	—	-$244.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$250.48	$492.29	+$250.2
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Downavg 73.8¢	$777.83	$768.7	-$9.13	48% 752-813 (1565)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$210.41	—	-$210.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.8¢	$567.43	$768.7	+$201.27
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 62.5¢	$2.7K	$1.2K	+$114.72	49% 2374-2443 (4817)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$362.87	$412.4	+$73.14	48% 2261-2474 (4735)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$108.37	—	-$108.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$237.11	$412.4	+$181.5
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Upavg 61.3¢	$304.79	—	-$304.79	51% 803-774 (1577)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 57.1¢	$403.32	$497.9	+$120.98	41% 791-1127 (1918)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$101.78	—	-$101.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.1¢	$284.4	$497.9	+$222.76
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$790.73	$301.9	-$81.06	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$117.66	—	-$87.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.7¢	$228.47	$301.9	+$6.53
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 82.4¢	$192.2	$210.87	+$18.67	28% 505-1283 (1788)
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.6¢	$18.48	—	-$18.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.4¢	$173.72	$210.87	+$37.14
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 58.2¢	$476.69	$739.24	+$262.55	51% 817-785 (1602)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 83.4¢	$249.34	$227.51	-$21.82	67% 3569-1770 (5339)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.8¢	$59.6	—	-$59.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.4¢	$189.73	$227.51	+$37.78
BoneOhio	Downavg 92.9¢	$747.07	$804.27	+$57.2	70% 1672-705 (2377)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$5.5

Record

43%

295-395 (690)

Both legs:

Up$2,432.7750¢$-2.5K

Down$2,47050¢+$2.5K

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$59.31

Record

45%

579-713 (1292)

Both legs:

Up$1,756.1850¢$-1.8K

Down$1,712.0950¢+$1.8K

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,672.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$12.51

Record

60%

1066-725 (1791)

Both legs:

Up$820.736.5¢-$820.7

Down$851.5851.3¢+$808.19

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,781.6

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$97.31

Record

47%

1068-1182 (2250)

Both legs:

Up$633.2943.1¢-$633.29

Down$1,148.3168.2¢+$535.98

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,034.09

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

44%

757-965 (1722)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$1,073.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$4.33

Record

52%

392-358 (750)

Both legs:

Up$537.7244.3¢-$537.72

Down$535.8649.7¢+$542.05

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

869-7 (876)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$888.2

Value

$852.02

PnL

-$36.18

Record

46%

812-949 (1761)

Both legs:

Up$340.9739.8¢-$340.97

Down$547.2364.2¢+$304.79

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$864.15

Value

$809.62

PnL

-$48.3

Record

52%

5063-4757 (9820)

Both legs:

Up$331.6444.3¢-$331.64

Down$528.2765.2¢+$283.35

suntoriCTR

Invested

$356.96

Value

—

PnL

-$355.04

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$622.37

Value

$687.23

PnL

+$64.86

Record

33%

730-1477 (2207)

Both legs:

Up$219.9830.7¢-$219.98

Down$402.3958.6¢+$284.83

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$708.5

Value

$687.56

PnL

-$20.94

Record

55%

4474-3627 (8101)

Both legs:

Up$248.7845.5¢-$248.78

Down$459.7366.9¢+$227.83

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$481.37

Value

$591.92

PnL

+$110.55

Record

52%

901-828 (1729)

Both legs:

Up$201.8135.8¢-$201.81

Down$279.5647.2¢+$312.36

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$505.63

Value

$462.9

PnL

-$42.73

Record

54%

4581-3974 (8555)

Both legs:

Up$206.6533.9¢-$206.65

Down$298.9764.6¢+$163.92

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$650.56

Value

$492.29

PnL

+$6.02

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

Both legs:

Up$229.8646.4¢-$244.18

Down$250.4850.9¢+$250.2

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$777.83

Value

$768.7

PnL

-$9.13

Record

48%

752-813 (1565)

Both legs:

Up$210.4166.8¢-$210.41

Down$567.4373.8¢+$201.27

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$2,684.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$114.72

Record

49%

2374-2443 (4817)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$362.87

Value

$412.4

PnL

+$73.14

Record

48%

2261-2474 (4735)

Both legs:

Up$108.3738.7¢-$108.37

Down$237.1157.5¢+$181.5

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Invested

$304.79

Value

—

PnL

-$304.79

Record

51%

803-774 (1577)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$403.32

Value

$497.9

PnL

+$120.98

Record

41%

791-1127 (1918)

Both legs:

Up$101.7847.1¢-$101.78

Down$284.457.1¢+$222.76

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$790.73

Value

$301.9

PnL

-$81.06

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

Both legs:

Up$117.6642¢-$87.59

Down$228.4775.7¢+$6.53

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$192.2

Value

$210.87

PnL

+$18.67

Record

28%

505-1283 (1788)

Both legs:

Up$18.486.6¢-$18.48

Down$173.7282.4¢+$37.14

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$476.69

Value

$739.24

PnL

+$262.55

Record

51%

817-785 (1602)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$249.34

Value

$227.51

PnL

-$21.82

Record

67%

3569-1770 (5339)

Both legs:

Up$59.623.8¢-$59.6

Down$189.7383.4¢+$37.78

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$747.07

Value

$804.27

PnL

+$57.2

Record

70%

1672-705 (2377)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 46 top traders (48%)30 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x010e94ea...ad7400

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794706800

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $0

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Down — $3.5K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

suntori

Up — $0