Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Down 69%
4 arb excluded
$18.2K
$-11.3K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 62 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 43% 289-389 (678) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.0K | 45% 570-710 (1280) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 859-7 (866) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 64.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | -$249.6 | 47% 1054-1177 (2231) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.98 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
AL almach | Downavg 84¢ | $1.8K | $1.1K | -$32.49 | 51% 1479-1409 (2888) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 43.3¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 59% 1055-721 (1776) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 53.7¢ | $956.62 | $963.91 | +$7.3 | 55% 4461-3621 (8082) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 66.8¢ | $985.6 | $958.88 | -$26.72 | 52% 5054-4750 (9804) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $957.42 | $880.21 | -$77.21 | 46% 807-940 (1747) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.3¢ | $468.94 | $880.21 | +$411.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.2¢ | $488.49 | — | -$488.49 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 50.7¢ | $735.89 | $820.46 | +$84.57 | 44% 751-957 (1708) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 71.4¢ | $3.3K | $669.48 | +$93.32 | 49% 2352-2415 (4767) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 66.1¢ | $591.73 | $508.46 | -$83.27 | 52% 385-352 (737) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 71.8¢ | $599.37 | $505.91 | -$21.84 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.8¢ | $669.59 | — | -$484.63 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 53.4¢ | $472.4 | $495.84 | +$23.44 | 54% 4574-3968 (8542) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $451.32 | $455.88 | +$4.56 | 52% 1431-1332 (2763) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.3¢ | $1.1K | $452.39 | +$5.49 | 51% 4729-4529 (9258) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $362.61 | $379.68 | +$17.07 | 51% 802-780 (1582) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 56.1¢ | $376.91 | $336.85 | -$40.06 | 41% 781-1125 (1906) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 43.9¢ | $426.11 | $283.99 | -$142.12 | 52% 891-824 (1715) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.7¢ | $123.97 | $283.99 | +$160.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.9¢ | $302.14 | — | -$302.14 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 47.1¢ | $268.8 | $358.59 | +$89.79 | 51% 1473-1419 (2892) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $309.73 | $272.32 | -$37.41 | 51% 3277-3198 (6475) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $409.87 | $263.06 | -$7.28 | 33% 721-1472 (2193) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR | Upavg 54.1¢ | $302.91 | — | -$302.91 | 51% 798-768 (1566) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
43%
289-389 (678)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
45%
570-710 (1280)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
859-7 (866)
Invested
$1,573.37
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$249.6
Record
47%
1054-1177 (2231)
Invested
$1,270.02
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.98
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Invested
$1,789.34
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$32.49
Record
51%
1479-1409 (2888)
Invested
$1,098.98
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
59%
1055-721 (1776)
Invested
$956.62
Value
$963.91
PnL
+$7.3
Record
55%
4461-3621 (8082)
Invested
$985.6
Value
$958.88
PnL
-$26.72
Record
52%
5054-4750 (9804)
Invested
$957.42
Value
$880.21
PnL
-$77.21
Record
46%
807-940 (1747)
Both legs:
Invested
$735.89
Value
$820.46
PnL
+$84.57
Record
44%
751-957 (1708)
Invested
$3,289.26
Value
$669.48
PnL
+$93.32
Record
49%
2352-2415 (4767)
Invested
$591.73
Value
$508.46
PnL
-$83.27
Record
52%
385-352 (737)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$599.37
Value
$505.91
PnL
-$21.84
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$669.59
Value
—
PnL
-$484.63
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
FairValueMachineInvested
$472.4
Value
$495.84
PnL
+$23.44
Record
54%
4574-3968 (8542)
Invested
$451.32
Value
$455.88
PnL
+$4.56
Record
52%
1431-1332 (2763)
Invested
$1,139.86
Value
$452.39
PnL
+$5.49
Record
51%
4729-4529 (9258)
Invested
$362.61
Value
$379.68
PnL
+$17.07
Record
51%
802-780 (1582)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$376.91
Value
$336.85
PnL
-$40.06
Record
41%
781-1125 (1906)
Invested
$426.11
Value
$283.99
PnL
-$142.12
Record
52%
891-824 (1715)
Both legs:
Invested
$268.8
Value
$358.59
PnL
+$89.79
Record
51%
1473-1419 (2892)
Invested
$309.73
Value
$272.32
PnL
-$37.41
Record
51%
3277-3198 (6475)
Invested
$409.87
Value
$263.06
PnL
-$7.28
Record
33%
721-1472 (2193)
Invested
$302.91
Value
—
PnL
-$302.91
Record
51%
798-768 (1566)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.3K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
almach
Down — $1.1K
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $963.91
blue.birds
Down — $958.88
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded