Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.4K

Combined PnL

$-4.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

46 of 63 top traders (73%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down46 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares22,336

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,229

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.5K	+$3.28	55% 440-360 (800)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.3K	$8.5K	+$4.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.3K	—	$-4.3K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	+$24.98	43% 289-389 (678)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	$4.8K	+$2.4K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.4K
BO borderlocket	Downavg 66.8¢	$2.5K	$3.7K	+$1.2K	33% 69-142 (211)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 859-7 (866)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	+$62.19	45% 570-710 (1280)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.6K	$3.3K	+$1.8K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.7K
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 52.2¢	$5.9K	—	$-3.2K	49% 2352-2415 (4767)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 66¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$25.28	52% 385-352 (737)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 57.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$110.56	59% 1055-721 (1776)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.29	70% 1655-694 (2349)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 60.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$24.3	33% 721-1472 (2193)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 58.7¢	$857.42	$957.89	+$100.48	52% 5054-4750 (9804)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.7¢	$831.12	$794.22	-$36.91	44% 751-957 (1708)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 71.5¢	$961.88	$784.65	-$177.23	47% 1054-1177 (2231)
ST stepahead	Downavg 63.7¢	$713.25	$763.75	+$50.49	55% 4461-3621 (8082)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.1¢	$793.13	$759.22	-$33.91	52% 2275-2131 (4406)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60.5¢	$627.87	$627.28	+$16.92	46% 807-940 (1747)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 54.9¢	$690.2	$501.77	+$5.33	54% 3695-3113 (6808)
AL almach	Downavg 86¢	$1.5K	$396.32	-$179.25	51% 1479-1409 (2888)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 60.8¢	$240.75	$395.76	+$155.01	28% 114-292 (406)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 66.9¢	$514.59	$374.54	-$113.77	52% 891-824 (1715)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 46.3¢	$1.5K	—	-$716.14	51% 1473-1419 (2892)
Atomforge	Downavg 65.6¢	$222.38	$339.19	+$116.81	27% 284-780 (1064)
machinelearned	Downavg 73.1¢	$282.68	$323.08	+$40.4	46% 1080-1251 (2331)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 51.8¢	$298.7	$320.81	+$22.11	54% 4574-3968 (8542)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 37.8¢	$733.17	—	-$733.17	51% 4729-4529 (9258)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,831

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$3.28

Record

55%

440-360 (800)

Both legs:

Down$4,255.7150¢+$4.3K

Up$4,250.850¢$-4.3K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$24.98

Record

43%

289-389 (678)

Both legs:

Down$2,403.5550¢+$2.4K

Up$2,403.5750¢$-2.4K

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$2,487.83

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

33%

69-142 (211)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

859-7 (866)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$62.19

Record

45%

570-710 (1280)

Both legs:

Down$1,641.5350¢+$1.8K

Up$1,641.5450¢$-1.7K

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$5,862.05

Value

—

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

49%

2352-2415 (4767)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$1,662.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$25.28

Record

52%

385-352 (737)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,344.15

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$110.56

Record

59%

1055-721 (1776)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$1,315.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.29

Record

70%

1655-694 (2349)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,129.25

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$24.3

Record

33%

721-1472 (2193)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$857.42

Value

$957.89

PnL

+$100.48

Record

52%

5054-4750 (9804)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$831.12

Value

$794.22

PnL

-$36.91

Record

44%

751-957 (1708)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$961.88

Value

$784.65

PnL

-$177.23

Record

47%

1054-1177 (2231)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$713.25

Value

$763.75

PnL

+$50.49

Record

55%

4461-3621 (8082)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$793.13

Value

$759.22

PnL

-$33.91

Record

52%

2275-2131 (4406)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$627.87

Value

$627.28

PnL

+$16.92

Record

46%

807-940 (1747)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$690.2

Value

$501.77

PnL

+$5.33

Record

54%

3695-3113 (6808)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,477.94

Value

$396.32

PnL

-$179.25

Record

51%

1479-1409 (2888)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$240.75

Value

$395.76

PnL

+$155.01

Record

28%

114-292 (406)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$514.59

Value

$374.54

PnL

-$113.77

Record

52%

891-824 (1715)

mo-moneyCTR

Invested

$1,452.26

Value

—

PnL

-$716.14

Record

51%

1473-1419 (2892)

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$222.38

Value

$339.19

PnL

+$116.81

Record

27%

284-780 (1064)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$282.68

Value

$323.08

PnL

+$40.4

Record

46%

1080-1251 (2331)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$298.7

Value

$320.81

PnL

+$22.11

Record

54%

4574-3968 (8542)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$733.17

Value

—

PnL

-$733.17

Record

51%

4729-4529 (9258)

Smart Money Signal

Down

46 of 63 top traders (73%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf1db469c...ebabc3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794706200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

borderlocket

Down — $3.7K

+$1.2K

THG.

Down — $3.5K

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

gansinimen

Down — $1.6K

-$25.28

Bonereaper

Down — $1.4K

+$110.56

BoneOhio

Down — $1.3K

+$13.29

ply-pm0

Down — $1.2K

+$24.3

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