Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$21.4K
$-7.4K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 54 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | $8.4K | +$78.45 | 55% 440-360 (800) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 43% 289-389 (678) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 570-710 (1280) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 859-7 (866) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$20.57 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 87.9¢ | $919.14 | $1.0K | +$90.86 | 51% 1473-1419 (2892) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 59.2¢ | $740.65 | $988.41 | +$247.76 | 59% 1055-721 (1776) |
AL almach | Downavg 81.6¢ | $809.09 | $617.72 | +$65.15 | 51% 1479-1409 (2888) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $535.06 | $501.85 | +$6.76 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
BO bosona | Downavg 95¢ | $720.52 | $500 | -$41.43 | 51% 4729-4529 (9258) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 60.4¢ | $480.36 | $452.16 | -$28.2 | 44% 751-957 (1708) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 66.9¢ | $396.42 | $556.04 | +$159.62 | 47% 1054-1177 (2231) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 72.6¢ | $266.96 | $293.33 | +$26.37 | 52% 5054-4750 (9804) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.9¢ | $266.02 | $284.82 | +$18.79 | 55% 4461-3621 (8082) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 68.1¢ | $251.31 | $276.08 | +$24.76 | 46% 807-940 (1747) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 90.9¢ | $684.98 | $213.77 | -$149.77 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $147.71 | $203.55 | +$55.84 | 51% 812-781 (1593) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 55.7¢ | $148.73 | $236.06 | +$87.33 | 52% 891-824 (1715) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 96.8¢ | $143.61 | $148.34 | +$4.73 | 52% 2764-2526 (5290) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $140.78 | $157.23 | +$16.45 | 51% 802-780 (1582) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.1¢ | $83.49 | $157.23 | +$73.74 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $57.28 | — | -$57.28 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 64.6¢ | $86.14 | $133.35 | +$47.21 | 54% 4574-3968 (8542) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $90.52 | $118.52 | +$28 | 33% 721-1472 (2193) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 51% 1005-962 (1967) |
 ohioism | Downavg 65.9¢ | $99.16 | $150.36 | +$51.2 | 47% 2170-2411 (4581) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $77.67 | $87.55 | +$9.88 | 50% 795-781 (1576) |
Invested
$8,545
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$78.45
Record
55%
440-360 (800)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
43%
289-389 (678)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
570-710 (1280)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
859-7 (866)
Invested
$1,553.42
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$20.57
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Invested
$919.14
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$90.86
Record
51%
1473-1419 (2892)
Invested
$740.65
Value
$988.41
PnL
+$247.76
Record
59%
1055-721 (1776)
Invested
$809.09
Value
$617.72
PnL
+$65.15
Record
51%
1479-1409 (2888)
Invested
$535.06
Value
$501.85
PnL
+$6.76
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Invested
$720.52
Value
$500
PnL
-$41.43
Record
51%
4729-4529 (9258)
Invested
$480.36
Value
$452.16
PnL
-$28.2
Record
44%
751-957 (1708)
Invested
$396.42
Value
$556.04
PnL
+$159.62
Record
47%
1054-1177 (2231)
Invested
$266.96
Value
$293.33
PnL
+$26.37
Record
52%
5054-4750 (9804)
Invested
$266.02
Value
$284.82
PnL
+$18.79
Record
55%
4461-3621 (8082)
Invested
$251.31
Value
$276.08
PnL
+$24.76
Record
46%
807-940 (1747)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$684.98
Value
$213.77
PnL
-$149.77
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$147.71
Value
$203.55
PnL
+$55.84
Record
51%
812-781 (1593)
Invested
$148.73
Value
$236.06
PnL
+$87.33
Record
52%
891-824 (1715)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$143.61
Value
$148.34
PnL
+$4.73
Record
52%
2764-2526 (5290)
Invested
$140.78
Value
$157.23
PnL
+$16.45
Record
51%
802-780 (1582)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$86.14
Value
$133.35
PnL
+$47.21
Record
54%
4574-3968 (8542)
Invested
$90.52
Value
$118.52
PnL
+$28
Record
33%
721-1472 (2193)
Invested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
51%
1005-962 (1967)
ohioismInvested
$99.16
Value
$150.36
PnL
+$51.2
Record
47%
2170-2411 (4581)
Invested
$77.67
Value
$87.55
PnL
+$9.88
Record
50%
795-781 (1576)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.4K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
mo-money
Down — $1.0K
Bonereaper
Down — $988.41
almach
Down — $617.72
ByteBadger92
Down — $501.85
bosona
Down — $500