Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
54
Down 74%
2 arb excluded
$13.8K
$-4.8K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 54 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 43% 289-389 (678) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$95.75 | 45% 570-710 (1280) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$18.96 | 99% 859-7 (866) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.98 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $935.78 | -$3.53 | 52% 3521-3295 (6816) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $467.89 | $935.78 | +$468.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $472.08 | — | -$472.2 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 87.4¢ | $852.81 | $885.31 | +$33.7 | 47% 1054-1177 (2231) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.5¢ | $527.29 | $583.33 | +$75.12 | 59% 1055-721 (1776) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $575.8 | $500.2 | +$2.44 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71.6¢ | $458.16 | $477.27 | +$19.11 | 44% 751-957 (1708) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 74.3¢ | $461.65 | $343.68 | -$117.97 | 46% 807-940 (1747) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 94.2¢ | $457.49 | $331.71 | -$121.99 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 63.9¢ | $283.81 | $268.16 | -$15.65 | 55% 4461-3621 (8082) |
BO bosona | Downavg 69¢ | $181.61 | $187.35 | +$5.74 | 51% 4729-4529 (9258) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 74.1¢ | $150.5 | $173.92 | +$31.63 | 54% 4574-3968 (8542) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 55.8¢ | $114.2 | $181.47 | +$67.26 | 47% 2261-2522 (4783) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 54.9¢ | $113.21 | $150.71 | +$37.49 | 52% 891-824 (1715) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $137.04 | $152.45 | +$15.41 | 33% 721-1472 (2193) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63¢ | $96.06 | $152.45 | +$56.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.5¢ | $40.98 | — | -$40.98 | |
AL almach | Downavg 85.8¢ | $269.34 | $122.96 | -$28.02 | 51% 1479-1409 (2888) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 68.3¢ | $109.6 | $109.26 | -$0.34 | 51% 1473-1419 (2892) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 67.6¢ | $93.26 | $120.02 | +$26.76 | 52% 5054-4750 (9804) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 63.3¢ | $65.06 | $102.7 | +$37.64 | 41% 781-1125 (1906) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 73.3¢ | $83.97 | $111.57 | +$27.6 | 46% 717-851 (1568) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989<$100 | Downavg 58.8¢ | $56.66 | $96.25 | +$39.59 | 55% 440-360 (800) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 65.1¢ | $76.57 | $83.65 | +$7.08 | 48% 2240-2454 (4694) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 54.7¢ | $45.01 | $82.3 | +$37.29 | 44% 2169-2794 (4963) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
43%
289-389 (678)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$95.75
Record
45%
570-710 (1280)
Invested
$1,877.35
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$18.96
Record
99%
859-7 (866)
Invested
$1,404.98
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.98
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Invested
$950
Value
$935.78
PnL
-$3.53
Record
52%
3521-3295 (6816)
Both legs:
Invested
$852.81
Value
$885.31
PnL
+$33.7
Record
47%
1054-1177 (2231)
Invested
$527.29
Value
$583.33
PnL
+$75.12
Record
59%
1055-721 (1776)
Invested
$575.8
Value
$500.2
PnL
+$2.44
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Invested
$458.16
Value
$477.27
PnL
+$19.11
Record
44%
751-957 (1708)
Invested
$461.65
Value
$343.68
PnL
-$117.97
Record
46%
807-940 (1747)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$457.49
Value
$331.71
PnL
-$121.99
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$283.81
Value
$268.16
PnL
-$15.65
Record
55%
4461-3621 (8082)
Invested
$181.61
Value
$187.35
PnL
+$5.74
Record
51%
4729-4529 (9258)
FairValueMachineInvested
$150.5
Value
$173.92
PnL
+$31.63
Record
54%
4574-3968 (8542)
Invested
$114.2
Value
$181.47
PnL
+$67.26
Record
47%
2261-2522 (4783)
Invested
$113.21
Value
$150.71
PnL
+$37.49
Record
52%
891-824 (1715)
Invested
$137.04
Value
$152.45
PnL
+$15.41
Record
33%
721-1472 (2193)
Both legs:
Invested
$269.34
Value
$122.96
PnL
-$28.02
Record
51%
1479-1409 (2888)
Invested
$109.6
Value
$109.26
PnL
-$0.34
Record
51%
1473-1419 (2892)
Invested
$93.26
Value
$120.02
PnL
+$26.76
Record
52%
5054-4750 (9804)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$65.06
Value
$102.7
PnL
+$37.64
Record
41%
781-1125 (1906)
Invested
$83.97
Value
$111.57
PnL
+$27.6
Record
46%
717-851 (1568)
Invested
$56.66
Value
$96.25
PnL
+$39.59
Record
55%
440-360 (800)
Invested
$76.57
Value
$83.65
PnL
+$7.08
Record
48%
2240-2454 (4694)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$45.01
Value
$82.3
PnL
+$37.29
Record
44%
2169-2794 (4963)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
THG.
Down — $1.9K
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
Down — $885.31
Bonereaper
Down — $583.33
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.2
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $477.27
GoodFallen
Down — $343.68