Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 49% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 49%
2 arb excluded
$13.0K
$-10.0K
Smart Money Signal
29 of 59 top traders (49%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$4.35 | 43% 289-389 (678) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 570-710 (1280) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $1.6K | $942.53 | -$683.05 | 49% 2352-2415 (4767) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.2¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41¢ | $385.98 | $942.53 | +$556.55 | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 53.6¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 59% 1055-721 (1776) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 56.7¢ | $854.85 | — | -$854.85 | 55% 4461-3621 (8082) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 54.9¢ | $921.85 | $938.09 | +$16.24 | 52% 385-352 (737) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 54.8¢ | $978.38 | $900.33 | -$78.05 | 47% 1054-1177 (2231) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $782.59 | $790.49 | +$7.9 | 99% 859-7 (866) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 42.9¢ | $720.85 | — | -$660.37 | 52% 5054-4750 (9804) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 46¢ | $457.16 | $613.67 | +$161.62 | 46% 807-940 (1747) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 54.4¢ | $545.62 | — | -$520.72 | 44% 751-957 (1708) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 68.7¢ | $844.32 | — | -$844.32 | 51% 4729-4529 (9258) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 54.1¢ | $696.68 | — | -$483.97 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 54.7¢ | $540.79 | — | -$518.95 | 33% 721-1472 (2193) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 37.6¢ | $208.08 | $353.67 | +$155.55 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 65.4¢ | $353.59 | — | -$353.59 | 51% 1479-1409 (2888) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 45.9¢ | $197.2 | $367.21 | +$170.01 | 48% 2240-2454 (4694) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 65.3¢ | $498.66 | — | -$498.66 | 51% 1473-1419 (2892) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 96.5¢ | $307.86 | $318.99 | +$11.13 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 58.5¢ | $304.9 | $325.11 | +$20.21 | 41% 781-1125 (1906) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 52.9¢ | $302.63 | $318.07 | +$15.43 | 54% 4574-3968 (8542) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 46.5¢ | $369.96 | — | -$369.96 | 52% 891-824 (1715) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 46.5¢ | $116.15 | $250 | +$133.85 | 51% 1005-962 (1967) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 79.9¢ | $265.13 | $256.55 | -$8.58 | 51% 812-781 (1593) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $212.24 | $209.02 | -$3.22 | 48% 745-807 (1552) |
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$4.35
Record
43%
289-389 (678)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
570-710 (1280)
Invested
$1,625.58
Value
$942.53
PnL
-$683.05
Record
49%
2352-2415 (4767)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,126.99
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
59%
1055-721 (1776)
Invested
$854.85
Value
—
PnL
-$854.85
Record
55%
4461-3621 (8082)
Invested
$921.85
Value
$938.09
PnL
+$16.24
Record
52%
385-352 (737)
Invested
$978.38
Value
$900.33
PnL
-$78.05
Record
47%
1054-1177 (2231)
Invested
$782.59
Value
$790.49
PnL
+$7.9
Record
99%
859-7 (866)
Invested
$720.85
Value
—
PnL
-$660.37
Record
52%
5054-4750 (9804)
Invested
$457.16
Value
$613.67
PnL
+$161.62
Record
46%
807-940 (1747)
Invested
$545.62
Value
—
PnL
-$520.72
Record
44%
751-957 (1708)
Invested
$844.32
Value
—
PnL
-$844.32
Record
51%
4729-4529 (9258)
Invested
$696.68
Value
—
PnL
-$483.97
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Invested
$540.79
Value
—
PnL
-$518.95
Record
33%
721-1472 (2193)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$208.08
Value
$353.67
PnL
+$155.55
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$353.59
Value
—
PnL
-$353.59
Record
51%
1479-1409 (2888)
Invested
$197.2
Value
$367.21
PnL
+$170.01
Record
48%
2240-2454 (4694)
Invested
$498.66
Value
—
PnL
-$498.66
Record
51%
1473-1419 (2892)
Invested
$307.86
Value
$318.99
PnL
+$11.13
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$304.9
Value
$325.11
PnL
+$20.21
Record
41%
781-1125 (1906)
FairValueMachineInvested
$302.63
Value
$318.07
PnL
+$15.43
Record
54%
4574-3968 (8542)
Invested
$369.96
Value
—
PnL
-$369.96
Record
52%
891-824 (1715)
Invested
$116.15
Value
$250
PnL
+$133.85
Record
51%
1005-962 (1967)
Invested
$265.13
Value
$256.55
PnL
-$8.58
Record
51%
812-781 (1593)
Invested
$212.24
Value
$209.02
PnL
-$3.22
Record
48%
745-807 (1552)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
gansinimen
Up — $938.09
CrouchPredictions
Up — $900.33
THG.
Up — $790.49
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
Up — $613.67