Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 76%
4 arb excluded
$34.0K
-$725.06
Smart Money Signal
42 of 55 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.6¢ | $8.8K | $8.8K | +$35.86 | 52% 1415-1309 (2724) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$0 | 42% 279-382 (661) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$0 | 45% 563-700 (1263) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 71% 1635-682 (2317) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 80.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$98.02 | 47% 1037-1165 (2202) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$17.53 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 73.2¢ | $836.11 | $796.86 | -$38.74 | 59% 1039-714 (1753) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 73.7¢ | $700.5 | $726.17 | +$25.67 | 33% 706-1465 (2171) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 80.6¢ | $650.5 | $650.41 | +$0.81 | 44% 740-946 (1686) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 99¢ | $610.41 | $616.58 | +$6.17 | 60% 70-46 (116) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 67.6¢ | $575.55 | $604.71 | +$29.16 | 55% 4442-3611 (8053) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 74.8¢ | $438.69 | $586.86 | +$148.17 | 27% 110-291 (401) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 82.3¢ | $482.38 | $515.88 | +$36.92 | 52% 878-815 (1693) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $617.02 | $502.36 | +$12.87 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $679.29 | $358.48 | -$320.81 | 51% 1455-1389 (2844) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.4¢ | $288.05 | $358.48 | +$70.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.5¢ | $391.25 | — | -$391.25 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 93.3¢ | $477.67 | $486.2 | +$8.53 | 51% 786-758 (1544) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 30¢ | $498.64 | — | -$498.64 | 51% 1450-1401 (2851) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 82.1¢ | $332.31 | $404.52 | +$72.21 | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 71.2¢ | $365.89 | $404.47 | +$38.58 | 52% 371-344 (715) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 60.1¢ | $224.09 | $372.63 | +$148.54 | 26% 280-778 (1058) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.6¢ | $378.89 | $365.88 | +$30.64 | 52% 5039-4741 (9780) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $335.69 | $257.82 | -$77.87 | 46% 709-840 (1549) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.9¢ | $149.21 | $257.82 | +$108.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37¢ | $186.48 | — | -$186.48 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 79.7¢ | $499.98 | $315.97 | -$105.14 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 99¢ | $272.32 | $262.6 | -$9.72 | 33% 1061-2196 (3257) |
BO bosonaARB<$100 | Upavg 30.2¢ | $450.84 | $72.19 | -$378.65 | 51% 4704-4511 (9215) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.2¢ | $411.14 | — | -$411.14 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55¢ | $39.7 | $72.19 | +$32.48 |
Invested
$8,750.16
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$35.86
Record
52%
1415-1309 (2724)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
279-382 (661)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
563-700 (1263)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
71%
1635-682 (2317)
Invested
$1,618.21
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$98.02
Record
47%
1037-1165 (2202)
Invested
$1,271.47
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$17.53
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Invested
$836.11
Value
$796.86
PnL
-$38.74
Record
59%
1039-714 (1753)
Invested
$700.5
Value
$726.17
PnL
+$25.67
Record
33%
706-1465 (2171)
Invested
$650.5
Value
$650.41
PnL
+$0.81
Record
44%
740-946 (1686)
Invested
$610.41
Value
$616.58
PnL
+$6.17
Record
60%
70-46 (116)
Invested
$575.55
Value
$604.71
PnL
+$29.16
Record
55%
4442-3611 (8053)
Invested
$438.69
Value
$586.86
PnL
+$148.17
Record
27%
110-291 (401)
Invested
$482.38
Value
$515.88
PnL
+$36.92
Record
52%
878-815 (1693)
Invested
$617.02
Value
$502.36
PnL
+$12.87
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$679.29
Value
$358.48
PnL
-$320.81
Record
51%
1455-1389 (2844)
Both legs:
Invested
$477.67
Value
$486.2
PnL
+$8.53
Record
51%
786-758 (1544)
Invested
$498.64
Value
—
PnL
-$498.64
Record
51%
1450-1401 (2851)
Invested
$332.31
Value
$404.52
PnL
+$72.21
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
Invested
$365.89
Value
$404.47
PnL
+$38.58
Record
52%
371-344 (715)
AtomforgeInvested
$224.09
Value
$372.63
PnL
+$148.54
Record
26%
280-778 (1058)
Invested
$378.89
Value
$365.88
PnL
+$30.64
Record
52%
5039-4741 (9780)
Invested
$335.69
Value
$257.82
PnL
-$77.87
Record
46%
709-840 (1549)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$499.98
Value
$315.97
PnL
-$105.14
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
pspspsps5Invested
$272.32
Value
$262.6
PnL
-$9.72
Record
33%
1061-2196 (3257)
Invested
$450.84
Value
$72.19
PnL
-$378.65
Record
51%
4704-4511 (9215)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $8.8K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $4.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.5K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.5K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
Bonereaper
Down — $796.86
ply-pm0
Down — $726.17
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $650.41
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $616.58