Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 40%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.7K

Combined PnL

$-15.8K

Smart Money Signal

21 of 52 top traders (40%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares24,812

Combined PnL$-17.1K

Down31 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares11,199

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-5.0K	42% 279-382 (661)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.0K	45% 563-700 (1263)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 71.8¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$288.28	47% 1037-1165 (2202)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$861.64	—	-$861.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.8¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$573.36
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 51.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$533.88	59% 1039-714 (1753)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 63.9¢	$4.1K	$1.4K	$-1.5K	51% 1450-1401 (2851)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.1¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$14.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.9¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 54.9¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	55% 4442-3611 (8053)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 54.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$37.57	52% 371-344 (715)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$52.49	33% 706-1465 (2171)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$474.51	—	-$474.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.5¢	$741.34	$1.3K	+$526.99
Atomforge	Downavg 55.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$4.79	26% 280-778 (1058)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$16.67	98% 3857-81 (3938)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$22.48	44% 740-946 (1686)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$494.34	—	-$494.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.5¢	$638.01	$1.1K	+$471.86
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$1.1K	$944.26	-$120.8	52% 5039-4741 (9780)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$461.25	—	-$461.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$603.81	$944.26	+$340.45
AL almach	Downavg 71.5¢	$2.8K	$1.4K	-$307.12	51% 1455-1389 (2844)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$712.81	$977.52	+$264.71	27% 110-291 (401)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$483.35	$977.52	+$494.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.8¢	$229.45	—	-$229.45
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 53.1¢	$674.17	$713.52	+$75.42	46% 792-933 (1725)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 59.2¢	$899.36	$514.13	-$385.23	28% 495-1271 (1766)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.1¢	$365.71	$514.13	+$148.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.2¢	$533.65	—	-$533.65
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 51.7¢	$1.2K	$529.11	+$42.74	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$622.98	$492.5	-$5.74	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$238.47	—	-$248.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$260.44	$492.5	+$243.11
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 44.2¢	$352.71	$458.89	+$131.76	41% 769-1117 (1886)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 50.5¢	$370.3	$432.5	+$122.36	54% 4559-3961 (8520)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 41.5¢	$281.91	—	-$281.91	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 45.8¢	$291.28	$425.98	+$211.21	52% 878-815 (1693)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 57.9¢	$221.95	$354.14	+$161.94	47% 2230-2478 (4708)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 49.7¢	$834.39	—	-$824.85	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 49.3¢	$295.41	$335.84	+$40.43	46% 709-840 (1549)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

42%

279-382 (661)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

45%

563-700 (1263)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,317.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$288.28

Record

47%

1037-1165 (2202)

Both legs:

Up$861.6439.9¢-$861.64

Down$1,456.3271.8¢+$573.36

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,479.79

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$533.88

Record

59%

1039-714 (1753)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$4,101.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

1450-1401 (2851)

Both legs:

Down$1,182.7485.1¢+$14.5

Up$1,468.9363.9¢$-1.5K

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$1,623.43

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

55%

4442-3611 (8053)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$1,244.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$37.57

Record

52%

371-344 (715)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,215.85

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$52.49

Record

33%

706-1465 (2171)

Both legs:

Up$474.5140.6¢-$474.51

Down$741.3458.5¢+$526.99

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$1,093.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$4.79

Record

26%

280-778 (1058)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,055.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.67

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,132.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$22.48

Record

44%

740-946 (1686)

Both legs:

Up$494.3448.1¢-$494.34

Down$638.0157.5¢+$471.86

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,065.06

Value

$944.26

PnL

-$120.8

Record

52%

5039-4741 (9780)

Both legs:

Up$461.2543¢-$461.25

Down$603.8163.9¢+$340.45

almach

Down

Invested

$2,825.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$307.12

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Down

Invested

$712.81

Value

$977.52

PnL

+$264.71

Record

27%

110-291 (401)

Both legs:

Down$483.3549.4¢+$494.16

Up$229.4528.8¢-$229.45

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$674.17

Value

$713.52

PnL

+$75.42

Record

46%

792-933 (1725)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$899.36

Value

$514.13

PnL

-$385.23

Record

28%

495-1271 (1766)

Both legs:

Down$365.7171.1¢+$148.42

Up$533.6559.2¢-$533.65

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,208.96

Value

$529.11

PnL

+$42.74

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$622.98

Value

$492.5

PnL

-$5.74

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Up$238.4749.5¢-$248.85

Down$260.4452.9¢+$243.11

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$352.71

Value

$458.89

PnL

+$131.76

Record

41%

769-1117 (1886)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$370.3

Value

$432.5

PnL

+$122.36

Record

54%

4559-3961 (8520)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$281.91

Value

—

PnL

-$281.91

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$291.28

Value

$425.98

PnL

+$211.21

Record

52%

878-815 (1693)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$221.95

Value

$354.14

PnL

+$161.94

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$834.39

Value

—

PnL

-$824.85

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$295.41

Value

$335.84

PnL

+$40.43

Record

46%

709-840 (1549)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 52 top traders (40%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0271084b...d3a33c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794704100

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $1.8K

mo-money

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Up — $0

gansinimen

Down — $1.2K

-$37.57

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$52.49

Atomforge

Down — $1.1K

-$4.79

hoodquant

Down — $1.1K

+$16.67

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